US Open Tennis 2015: Odds and Predictions for the Top Contenders
It's always exciting to see the upset in any sport.
Whether it's the young up-and-comer who finds a way to beat the star, or the cagey veteran who turns back the hands of time and shocks the young phenom who is dominating his or her sport, it's thrilling to watch an upset unfold.
It's exciting, but a major upset that allows someone other than Serena Williams to win the women's title at the U.S. Open would be more than surprising.
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On the men's side, the Big Three of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Andy Murray appear ready to dominate the field. While Djokovic is the clear favorite, it would not be a shocker if Federer or Murray came away with the title. However, if Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori or an underwhelming Rafael Nadal celebrated in New York in September, it would be a real shocker.
OddsShark has labeled Serena a -120 favorite as she attempts to become the second player in tennis history to earn a calendar-year Grand Slam. Williams already has her second "Serena Slam," because she won last year's U.S. Open and has followed that up by taking the Australian Open, French Open (Roland Garros) and Wimbledon. If she wins her fifth straight Grand Slam title, she will join Steffi Graf as the only other player to win all four Grand Slam titles in the same year.
| Women | ||
| Serena Williams | -120 | Champion |
| Victoria Azarenka | +800 | Out in second round |
| Maria Sharapova | +900 | Out in quarterfinals |
| Simona Halep | +1.200 | Loss in championship match |
| Petra Kvitova | +2,000 | Out in second round |
| Garbine Muguruza | +2,000 | Out in quarterfinals |
| Belinda Bencic | +2,000 | Out in semifinals |
| Caroline Wozniacki | +2,000 | Out in third round |
| Men | ||
| Novak Djokovic | +120 | Champion |
| Andy Murray | +350 | Out in semifinals |
| Roger Federer | +450 | Loss in championship match |
| Stan Wawrinka | +1,200 | Loss in quarterfinals |
| Rafael Nadal | +1,400 | Loss in second round |
| Kei Nishikori | +1,400 | Loss in quarterfinals |
| Marin Cilic | +2,500 | Loss in third round |
| Grigor Dimitrov | +2,500 | Loss in quarterfinals |
Serena's quest has made tickets to the U.S. Open women's finals very difficult to come by.
"The Buzz: US Open Women's final sells out http://t.co/gJp2wqvprd
— espnwnews (@espnWnews) August 28, 2015"
There are only two players in the field who have odds less than plus-1,000. Victoria Azarenka is the second choice in the tournament with odds of plus-800, while Maria Sharapova is the third betting choice at plus-900.
Azarenka has not had a stellar year, and Sharapova is coming off a recent leg injury that forced her to withdraw from the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati last week.
Simona Halep (plus-1,200) and Belinda Bencic (plus-2,000) appear to have a better chance of beating Serena than Azarenka or Sharapova. Halep met Williams in the Western & Southern Open final last week, and she pushed her hard before falling short. Bencic, the 18-year-old Swiss rising star, beat Serena in Montreal earlier this month.
"It's official, @serenawilliams is No. 1 seed for the #usopen, could meet No. 2 seed @Simona_Halep in the final. pic.twitter.com/y3xNvGoduS
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 25, 2015"
That was only the second tournament loss that Williams has suffered this year. She takes a 48-2 match record into the U.S. Open, and she appears to be on top of her stellar game.
Even if Serena has an off-night, her power serve is simply too much for most opponents and her ability to return serve allows her to dominate most encounters.
On the men's side, Federer beat Djokovic in straight sets Sunday at the Western & Southern Open, and he is playing as well as ever. Federer did not lose one game on his serve in that tournament and while he does not unleash the big bomb the way some players do, his ability to place the ball exactly where he wants it to go has given him maximum confidence.
".@DjokerNole comes into @usopen as top seed 4th time in 5 yrs, is guest on @espn @SportsCenter. pic.twitter.com/VV6hmjfih2
— Greg Sharko (@SharkoTennis) August 24, 2015"
Murray was also beaten by Federer in the semifinal round of that tournament, but he should also feel good about his game. He defeated Djokovic in Montreal earlier this month, and that lifted a huge weight from his shoulders. Djokovic had dominated Murray in his previous eight matches, and now Murray knows he can stay with his rival when he plays his best game.
So, while Federer and Murray may feel better about their chances against Djokovic, he is still a remarkable player and that's why he has been installed as the plus-120 favorite. OddsShark ranks Murray (plus-350) as the second choice and Federer as the third choice.
"US Open - Can Murray use recent win over Djokovic to his advantage in New York? http://t.co/PmNzQtbXNd pic.twitter.com/Z2GZl7ZYCg
— Live Tennis (@livetennis) August 29, 2015"
Wawrinka won the French Open earlier this year, but his performances in 2015 have been inconsistent and that's why he has odds of plus-1,200. Nadal, who has rarely been at his best this season, is a shocking plus-1,400. Nishikori reached the U.S. Open finals last year and has a dynamic all-around game, but his lack of consistency has been a problem. As a result, he has odds of plus-1,400. Last year's surprise winner Marin Cilic is a shocking plus-2,500 and is given almost no chance to repeat.
Predictions
It's fairly easy on the women's side. Williams wants her Grand Slam badly and there doesn't appear to be a legitimate threat in the field to take it from her.
Established players like Sharapova, Halep, Azarenka and Caroline Wozniacki rarely play their best matches against Williams, and her power on the serve regularly comes to the forefront.
Serena was surprised by Bencic a couple of weeks ago, but we can't see her taking any opponent lightly once she gets into the second week of the tournament.
We expect Williams to have a couple of tough sets at the U.S. Open and she may even drop a set in one or two matches. However, she is too talented, too strong and too motivated to miss this opportunity.
Djokovic will be very difficult to beat. The feeling is that he is not happy after losing to Murray and Federer in back-to-back finals, and he will use that for inspiration.
But even if he had not lost those two matches, superior quickness, athleticism and inventiveness would give him the edge. While he is not going to win the calendar-year Grand Slam, a win at the U.S. Open would give three Grand Slams for 2015. That's an excellent year.
We look for Federer to push him hard for five sets, but Djokovic will win his second U.S. Open and make it 3-of-4 Grand Slam titles this year.
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