Waiver Wire Week 10: Top Pickups, Drops and Expert Analysis

After Week 8 provided us with more than a few potential season-saving options on the waiver wire, Week 9 is not so giving, but that’s because we didn’t have as many injuries. Unfortunately, we did have one major injury, as New England Patriots running back Dion Lewis was lost to a torn ACL. Replacing him won’t be so easy.

Unlike the pickups of Pittsburgh Steelers running back DeAngelo Williams or Chicago Bears running back Jeremy Langford, there really isn’t a clear answer as to how the Patriots will make up for Lewis’ absence. For the first time in years, New England’s backfield was reliable for fantasy, but with Lewis’ injury, the dreaded "Belitricks" could return right as we make the fantasy playoff push.

Even though we’re getting close to the end of the fantasy regular season, in reality, teams are just getting into the second half of the NFL season. But the writing is on the wall for teams that are out of it. We’ve already seen some coaching changes, and those in charge might try to get underutilized players more looks, as we saw with Tennessee Titans wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham.

It’s not quite evaluation mode for the teams that are likely out of the NFL playoff hunt, but it would be wise for you to evaluate your roster, especially at the back end. Are you still holding out hope on a player who’s yet to contribute like New York Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz? Stop waiting and get someone useful as a replacement. It’s been nine weeks; you can’t wait any longer for a player to emerge.

Quarterbacks

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Blake Bortles, Jac 

Percent Owned: ESPN – 55, Yahoo – 52

Bortles has taken steps forward in his second season, so while he’s far from being a top-15 quarterback, he is in that conversation for fantasy. Having a pair of reliable wide receivers in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns certainly helps, but so does the volume of their passing game. 

Jacksonville is 11th with 257.6 passing yards per game and 11th in passing attempts with 311, although it should be noted the Jaguars are one of five teams in the top 11 that have played just eight games. For the season, Bortles is a top-10 quarterback in both total fantasy points and fantasy points per game. Volume can work wonders.

After posting a season-high 381 yards with two touchdowns against the New York Jets, Bortles will try to follow that up in a beatable matchup against the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 10. He should continue his surprisingly strong fantasy season.

Week 10 Projection: 285-295 yards, two touchdowns, one interception

Sam Bradford, Phi

Percent Owned: ESPN – 36, Yahoo – 50

Are the Philadelphia Eagles starting to turn the corner? An impressive performance by Bradford and Co. in an overtime win over the Dallas Cowboys on the road indicates that might be the case. Bradford threw for 295 yards and the game-winning touchdown to wide receiver Jordan Matthews in overtime.

He’s been more disappointing than good for fantasy, but the turnaround has a great chance of continuing when you take a look at the Eagles schedule. They have just two road games left before Week 17 (Detroit in Week 12, New England in Week 13), and the toughest matchup by the numbers is against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15.

This week, Bradford and the Eagles host the Miami Dolphins. Miami has given up the eighth most fantasy points to QBs over the last four weeks, and the Dolphins had no answers for Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. If they stay on top of their game, the Eagles can give the Dolphins even more trouble.

Week 10 Projection: 275-285 yards, two touchdowns, one interception

Droppable Players: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Running Backs

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Karlos Williams, Buf

Percent Owned: ESPN – 41.3, Yahoo – 38

I had Williams pegged as the top pickup coming out of Week 9 before the game ended, and his value ended up even higher than expected by the time the Buffalo Bills beat the Miami Dolphins. Not just because LeSean McCoy suffered a shoulder injury, but also because Williams produced at a high level once again. 

Williams racked up 110 yards and a pair of touchdowns on just nine carries. He’s now scored in all five of his appearances this season and has gone for 100 yards twice. The Bills are committed to running the football and there’s a clear trust in Williams, who has had value independent of being McCoy’s handcuff. Many gave up on Williams because he missed so much time with a concussion.

According to Joe Buscaglia of WKBW, head coach Rex Ryan said the team would see how it goes with McCoy. The veteran running back didn’t take part in the team’s walk-through Monday ahead of its Thursday matchup with the New York Jets. Obviously, it’s a boost for Williams if McCoy can’t go, even if it's a tough matchup.

Week 10 Projection: 18 carries, 80 yards, one touchdown, two receptions, 11 yards

James Starks, GB

Percent Owned: ESPN – 40.2, Yahoo – 41

The drama in the Green Bay backfield continues to cause headaches for fantasy owners, and there appears to be no end in sight. In Week 9, Eddie Lacy left the game with a groin injury, and it came after he was benched for losing a fumble. That opened the door wide for Starks, and once again, he came through.

Starks carried just 10 times for 39 yards, but he turned eight targets into six receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Carolina Panthers. According to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, head coach Mike McCarthy said there are things Lacy is "not doing very well right now." Offensive coordinator Edgar Bennett was asked about Lacy and said they "definitely got to get him going."

Starks hasn’t been great, but he’s been better than Lacy, and the key is he’s healthy while Lacy has been anything but. The Packers can’t mess around with what’s not working, so expect to see more of Starks in a beatable matchup against the Detroit Lions on Sunday.

Week 10 Projection: 16 carries, 71 yards, one touchdown, three receptions, 17 yards

James White, NE

Percent Owned: ESPN – 1.5, Yahoo – 4

It’s not often you’ll find one of the hotter names on the waiver wire coming off a healthy scratch, but that’s the world we live in when it comes to dealing with the New England Patriots running backs. White didn’t play against the Washington Redskins in Week 9, as they went with Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden as their running backs.

Lewis and Blount are typically the only backs to contribute on offense, but Bolden is almost always active because he's a core special teams player. When Lewis left the game with a torn ACL, Bolden ended up catching three passes for 27 yards and a touchdown, but it came out of necessity and wouldn’t be a role I’d expect him to play much in the future.

Instead, grabbing White would be the smart move, as he would be the best option to take over Lewis’ role in the passing game. He does have seven receptions for 52 yards in a limited capacity, but he was active in Week 7 when Lewis sat out and ended up with three receptions for 26 yards. Replacing Lewis with one player isn’t happening, so keep expectations low for White, as he’s likely just an RB3/flex option.

Week 10 Projection: Five receptions, 38 yards, two carries, eight yards

Droppable Players: Dion Lewis, Darren Sproles, C.J. Spiller, Kendall Gaskins

Wide Receivers

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Dorial Green-Beckham, Ten 

Percent Owned: ESPN – 9, Yahoo – 19

Last week, I featured Green-Beckham as a deep sleeper because everything seemed to be aligning properly heading into Week 9. He had a favorable matchup against the New Orleans Saints, and interim head coach Mike Mularkey talked about getting the rookie more involved. Plus, wide receiver Kendall Wright was out with a knee injury. 

Green-Beckham ended up having his best game of the season, posting five receptions for 77 yards on a team-high 10 targets. He played 68 percent of the snaps, which was a season high, so Mularkey ended up coming through on his talk of an increased role for Green-Beckham.

While this week’s matchup against the Carolina Panthers is much tougher, Green-Beckham should remain an active part of the Tennessee Titans offense for the rest of the season. So even if Week 10 is a struggle, he’s someone who can help you the rest of the way. 

Week 10 Projection: Four receptions, 58 yards

Kamar Aiken, Bal

Percent Owned: ESPN – 28.6, Yahoo – 41

The Baltimore Ravens suffered a crushing blow in Week 8 when wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. tore his Achilles and was lost for the season. This is the second time Aiken has become a hot name on the waiver wire thanks to a Smith injury, but unlike the broken ribs he battled back from, Smith won’t be returning this year. That means Aiken has more long-term value.

Aiken hauled in all six of his targets for 62 yards against the San Diego Chargers in Week 8. For the season, Aiken caught 25 of 44 targets for 333 yards and two touchdowns. When Smith was injured in Week 4, Aiken had five receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown on seven targets, and with Smith out of the lineup the following week, Aiken posted four receptions for 78 yards on nine targets. 

Aiken looks like the top wide receiver for the rest of the year. He should get volume not only because he’s the top option, but also because the Ravens defense isn’t good, so they’ll likely be throwing more to stay in games. Coming out of the Week 9 bye, Aiken should have a chance to shine against a shaky Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense. 

Week 10 Projection: Six receptions, 79 yards, one touchdown

Cole Beasley, Dal

Percent Owned: ESPN – 3, Yahoo – 4

It’s tough to get excited about the prospects of Beasley, so this could be nothing more than a two-week stint of fantasy relevance. If you’re really hurting at wide receiver and want to catch lightning in a bottle, Beasley may be worth a look.

In Week 9, he led the Dallas Cowboys with nine receptions for 112 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets in an overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. He was coming off back-to-back games without a catch and had just one other game with more than four receptions all season.

If you’re looking at adding Beasley, it’s because he’s facing an average and beatable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense in Week 10. He still won’t have quarterback Tony Romo, but Matt Cassel liked going his way against the Eagles. That might be reason enough to pick him up and plug him in to the last spot in your lineup.

Week 10 Projection: Five receptions, 58 yards

Droppable Players: Leonard Hankerson, Percy Harvin, Terrance Williams, Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin

Tight Ends

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Eric Ebron, Det

Percent Owned: ESPN – 28.5, Yahoo – 24

The Detroit Lions may be hopeless, but if you’re pointing to a player going in the right direction, it’s Ebron. Because the team was on a Week 9 bye, Ebron is widely available to grab, and I’d be jumping on that move since he has a shot to be a top-10 fantasy tight end for the rest of the season.

While injuries have been a problem once again, Ebron has taken steps forward after a useless rookie year. He has at least four receptions in four games and at least 50 yards in three games along with three touchdowns.

Wide Receiver Calvin Johnson suffered an ankle injury in Week 8, so his status is up in the air for Week 10, meaning Ebron could be asked to play a bigger role. The Lions take on the Green Bay Packers, who have allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends in the last four weeks.

Week 10 Projection: Five receptions, 65 yards, one touchdown

Droppable Players: Heath Miller, Jordan Cameron

Defenses

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Pittsburgh Steelers

Percent Owned: ESPN – 37.6, Yahoo – 42

The Steelers find their way to the top of the streaming defense pile because of a favorable matchup against the Cleveland Browns, and that’s really the only reason you’d consider using them in Week 10. 

No team has allowed more fantasy points to defenses than the Browns over the last month. Whether it’s quarterback Johnny Manziel or Josh McCown, the team has given up too many sacks (12 in the last four weeks) along with six fumble recoveries. Playing the matchups is the way to go if you’re not sticking with one of the best defenses, so check out the Steelers this week. 

Week 10 Projection: Three sacks, one interception, one forced fumble, 18-21 points allowed.

Kickers

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Connor Barth, TB

Percent Owned: ESPN – 4.7, Yahoo – 14 

Four games back with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has turned Barth into one of the most reliable fantasy kickers in the league. He’s missed just one of 14 field-goal attempts in the time he’s spent with the Buccaneers. His streak of games with at least three field goals is now at four after he hit four of five attempts against the New York Giants.

The Bucs should give him enough opportunities to extend that mark when they host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. Barth is worth grabbing for this week and beyond.

Graham Gano, Car 

Percent Owned: ESPN – 30, Yahoo – 27

The Carolina Panthers are rolling right now, and that’s been great for Gano. In the Week 9 win over the Green Bay Packers, Gano hit three of four field-goal attempts and all four of his extra points in one of his best outings of the season.

The Panthers shouldn’t have a lot of trouble with the Tennessee Titans in Nashville this weekend, so Gano remains one of the better under-the-radar options if you’re looking for a kicker.

Fantasy leaders provided by NFL.com. Targets provided by ESPN.com. Snap counts provided by ProFootballFocus.com.