Picking the Potential Groups of Death in the Champions League Draw
The field is set for the 2015-16 UEFA Champions League group stage. After three rounds of qualifying and two legs of playoffs, the final 10 teams have joined the 22 already qualified for Europe's most prestigious club competition.
All 32 teams will discover their group-stage task in Thursday's draw, which will be held in Monaco. With the draw looming, and with most of the teams confirmed in one of four pots well in advance, we asked ourselves what this year's group of death might look like.
Keep reading to see what we found.
All the Pots and Coefficients
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Here is a look at the 32 teams in the four pots. UEFA coefficients are in parentheses (source: UEFA.com).
Pot 1 (top seeds): Barcelona (164.999), Bayern Munich (154.883), Chelsea (142.078), Benfica (118.276), Paris Saint-Germain (100.483), Juventus (95.102), Zenit Saint Petersburg (90.099), PSV Eindhoven (58.195).
Pot 2: Real Madrid (171.999), Atletico Madrid (120.999), Porto (111.276), Arsenal (110.078), Manchester United (103.078), Valencia (99.999), Bayer Leverkusen (87.883), Manchester City (87.078).
Pot 3: Shakhtar Donetsk (86.033), Sevilla (80.499), Lyon (72.983), Dynamo Kiev (65.033), Olympiakos (62.380), CSKA Moscow (55.599), Galatasaray (50.020), Roma (43.602).
Pot 4: BATE Borisov (35.150), Borussia Monchengladbach (33.883), Wolfsburg (31.883), Dinamo Zagreb (24.700), Maccabi Tel-Aviv (18.200), Gent (13.440), Malmo (12.545), Astana (3.825).
The Coefficient's Group of Death
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One way to determine the most difficult group is to use UEFA's club coefficient, which is just a fancy way of saying club rankings.
UEFA works out these rankings by awarding points for victories in the Champions League and Europa League over the most recent five seasons. As noted at UEFA.com, the 2015-16 Champions League is using the coefficients from the start of the previous season.
It is probably no surprise, then, that Real Madrid top the rankings with a 171.999 coefficient. The surprise is that Real find themselves in Pot 2 instead of in Pot 1 with the top seeds. This happened because of some new rules that go into effect this season, as Oliver Todd explains at the Mail Online:
"UEFA changed the rules regarding the allocating of their pots earlier this year to reward champions from around Europe by including the winners of the top seven leagues, and the Champions League winners, in the top category.
That means that Real will only be in the second selection of teams, decided on their co-efficient scores, alongside the likes of Manchester City and city rivals Atletico.
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As the team with the highest coefficient, Real will go into our rankings-based group of death. The highest-ranked team in Pot 1 is Barcelona at 164.999, but teams from the same association cannot play each other in the group stage, as per UEFA rules. That means Bayern Munich (154.883) will be our representative from Pot 1.
The highest-rated team in Pot 3 is Shakhtar Donetsk at 86.033. As noted by Infostrada Sports, Shakhtar are one of only seven teams to have reached the group stage every season since 2010-11. Finally, BATE Borisov (35.150) lead Pot 4 ahead of Borussia Monchengladbach and Wolfsburg.
Worst-Case Scenario for Chelsea
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Chelsea earned a top seed by winning the Premier League last season. A place in Pot 1 usually brings with it a manageable path to the knockout stage, but what would a difficult draw look like for the Blues?
The team to avoid in Pot 2 is Real Madrid, who are 10-time winners and perennial contenders. It's never easy for an opposing team to win at the Bernabeu, and Chelsea would have a tough time as well, despite the fact that Jose Mourinho previously managed there. In the end, choosing Madrid for this slot was easy.
Shakhtar Donetsk are the highest-ranked team in Pot 3, though Roma might also present a stern challenge, as Manchester City found out last season. But we're giving the edge to Shakhtar, who have consistently qualified for the Champions League for several years and will bring plenty of experience into the tournament.
In Pot 4, Wolfsburg would be an intriguing and difficult opponent. The Bundesliga side can play some outstanding football, and star man Kevin De Bruyne would be eager to perform well against his former club. Recent reports suggest De Bruyne is on his way to Manchester City, per Chris Wheeler at the Daily Mail, but an admittedly Wolfsburg would still be tough foe without him.
That leaves us with a group of Chelsea, Real Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk and Wolfsburg. That would represent a difficult proposition for the Blues, but Mourinho, who has won the competition twice, would still fancy his chances of advancing in one of the top-two spots.
A Totally Biased, Hopelessly Subjective View
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Crunching the numbers can only tell us so much. Here is my entirely subjective evaluation of the four pots.
In Pot 1, we've decided to go with Barcelona. The Catalans let in an alarming number of goals against Sevilla and Athletic Bilbao in their two supercups ahead of the Liga season, but this team is still very, very good. The front three of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar are unmatched, and the quality of players throughout the squad is outstanding.
After winning a treble last season, Barcelona will be formidable again this term.
With Barcelona in this group of death, Real Madrid will have to go elsewhere (again, two teams from the same association cannot face each other in the group stage). This brings us to Manchester City, a club that has become quite familiar with Barcelona in recent Champions League campaigns. Manuel Pellegrini's men have started the Premier League season in fine form and will be targeting a deep run in Europe.
The squad is packed with talent, and City might just have learned enough lessons from their previous Champions League appearances to make a lasting impression this time around. And in Sergio Aguero, they have a striker capable of turning any match at any moment.
Pots 3 and 4 are difficult, for reasons that should be somewhat clear. Many good teams are in these pots, but most onlookers would consider the best of them dark horses to win the title. As noted in the previous slides, Shakhtar will be tough to beat because of their experience in the competition and the long distance many teams will have to travel to play them.
As for Pot 4, Borussia Monchengladbach have started the Bundesliga season in poor form, and BATE Borisov likely won't surprise any teams like they did Bayern Munich in 2012. So that leaves Wolfsburg, a side that could soon lose their best player. It's not an ideal choice, but I'll stick with it because Wolfsburg have a strong squad overall and could still have a chance to invest the money from the potential sale of Kevin De Bruyne.
Recap and Your Take
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Using only UEFA's coefficients, this is the most likely group of death: Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk and BATE Borisov.
For the reigning Premier League champions, this seems to be the most difficult group: Chelsea, Real Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk and Wolfsburg.
For our subjective group of death, we went for Barcelona, Manchester City, Shakhtar Donetsk and Wolfsburg.
What would your group of death look like? Or, if you prefer, what's the worst-case scenario for your club? Let us know in the comments section.
Follow @MiguelCominguez
