US Open Tennis 2015: Championship Odds and Predictions for Top Contenders
A star-studded two weeks of tennis is about to kick off in New York, the climax to another thrilling season.
So who has the best chance to win the 2015 U.S. Open?
Unsurprisingly, Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams are heavily favored in their respective fields, but they’re joined by a group eager to steal their thunder.
Fresh off a victory over Djokovic for the Cincinnati title, Roger Federer looks poised to make a serious run at an 18th major. Along with Montreal champion Andy Murray, both veterans enter the tournament on a roll.
While an immediate threat to Williams may not be as clear, she’ll have a big target on her back as Maria Sharapova, Simona Halep, Petra Kvitova and others try to deny her a piece of history.
Without further ado, the following slides will present odds (via Odds Shark) for the top contenders in the men’s and women’s draws, as well as predictions for each player.
Let the race to the finish line begin.
Caroline Wozniacki: 25-1
1 of 12
Seed: No. 4
Prediction: The bright lights of New York usually bring out the best in Caroline Wozniacki.
The Dane has found much success at the U.S. Open, reaching the 2009 and 2014 finals, as well as two other semifinals. But her journey to last year's championship match is actually the only time Wozniacki has advanced to a major semifinal or better in the past four seasons.
In 2015, that trend has continued with disappointing losses at the Australian Open and French Open, as well as a fourth-round exit at Wimbledon. Wozniacki is a compiler of wins at smaller events, but she too often struggles at the bigger tournaments.
To advance to another final in Flushing Meadows, Wozniacki could have to endure players like Flavia Pennetta, Samantha Stosur, Petra Kvitova and Simona Halep. Each of those women can knock off the inconsistent Wozniacki.
A title rematch with Serena Williams appears unlikely given that path.
Petra Kvitova: 20-1
2 of 12
Seed: No. 5
Prediction: A player-of-the-year candidate for some heading into 2015, Petra Kvitova hasn't come close to living up to that hype.
Early losses at the first three majors this season signify a lost campaign for the young Czech. But she still has one final opportunity to rectify those earlier misses.
Working against her is a recent bout with mononucleosis, which zapped her strength in Toronto and Cincinnati. Kvitova's health is therefore a huge question.
She should be able to advance to the third round and set a potential date with an under-the-radar Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. That won't be an easy match. If she survives, Kvitova could then face Wimbledon finalist Garbine Muguruza.
The furthest Kvitova has ever advanced at the U.S. Open is the fourth round. It's the major where she's easily had her least success. Put her recent illness and lackluster results together and another short stay in New York is on the menu.
Rafael Nadal: 14-1
3 of 12
Seed: No. 8
Prediction: Rafael Nadal is desperate to end the malaise he's currently mired in. Yet New York may not be the place where it happens.
Nadal's credentials at the U.S. Open include two titles (2010, 2013) and a runner-up finish in 2011. Once considered a major he probably wouldn't win, the Spaniard deserves acclaim for finding solutions on these fast hard courts.
But at this current point in his narrative, replicating those feats seems unlikely.
Bounced in the quarterfinals of Montreal by Kei Nishikori and the third round of Cincinnati by Feliciano Lopez, Nadal enters the U.S. Open without a signature win during the warmup tournaments. That lack of battle-tested moments make him a candidate for an early upset.
Out of the gate, Nadal will face rising teenage star Borna Coric, who beat Nadal last fall in Basel. Don't be surprised if that match goes four (or more) sets.
Fabio Fognini, who's 2-1 against Nadal in 2015, looms in the third round. Should he advance past that point, big-hitting Milos Raonic could be next. The Canadian's serve is enough to make any opponent uncomfortable.
Waiting in the quarterfinals would likely be Novak Djokovic. Based off their rather lopsided meeting at the French Open, it's tough to see Nadal going much further.
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Kei Nishikori: 14-1
4 of 12
Seed: No. 4
Prediction: Raise your hand if you predicted Kei Nishikori would make last year's U.S. Open final.
If you answered affirmatively, pat yourself on the back. Few thought Nishikori could accomplish that task, but the Japanese star ousted Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic in succession to reach his first Grand Slam final.
That storybook run didn't culminate in a title thanks to Marin Cilic's powerhouse performance, yet it marked Nishikori's emergence as a true contender. And now, he bears the burden of having to defend that result.
Struggling with injuries this summer to his calf and and hip, Nishikori enters the U.S. Open with quite a few physical question marks. Will he be close to 100 percent for the tournament?
A foot problem almost prevented him from competing in New York last year, so there is evidence he can tough it out and do well at this venue. Because his draw is loaded with solid veterans, however, Nishikori's fitness will soon be put to the test.
Slotted into the same half as Djokovic, Nishikori opens with Benoit Paire before possible encounters with Radek Stepanek, Tommy Robredo, Gael Monfils and David Ferrer. He'd have to survive all those matches just to book a rematch with Djokovic. There are no gimmes for the world No. 4.
Those factors—his health and draw—will probably keep Nishikori from matching last year's run.
Simona Halep: 12-1
5 of 12
Seed: No. 2
Prediction: Simona Halep has been touted as a future Grand Slam champion for a few years now. The wait to turn that potential into reality keeps dragging out.
After reaching the French Open final and Wimbledon semifinal in 2014, Halep's major results have sputtered this season. At those aforementioned tournaments, she recently exited in the second and first rounds, respectively. Her best result is a quarterfinal showing at the Australian Open.
Playing well at the next tier of events hasn't been a problem for the Romanian. A finalist at both Toronto and Cincinnati, Halep enters the U.S. Open with momentum. But success at less prestigious stops goes for naught when she trips up on the big stages.
Working with ESPN's Darren Cahill, Halep is trying to be more aggressive on the court and take the fight to her opponents. And that's how she needs to play to have any chance of a title in New York.
Sabine Lisicki or Timea Bacsinszky could face her in the fourth round, a prelude to a likely quarterfinal against Lucie Safarova or Victoria Azarenka. All those women possess considerably more artillery than Halep.
But she's poised to make up for her recent shortcomings at majors. Don't pencil her into the final, yet anticipate Halep making a second-week push.
Stan Wawrinka: 12-1
6 of 12
Seed: No. 5
Prediction: Since his thrilling victory at Roland Garros, Stan Wawrinka has lacked his usual swagger on the court.
A second-round loss at Queen's Club and quarterfinal exit at Wimbledon didn't provide Stan the Man with the type of grass-court results he sought. So far during the U.S. Open Series, that same inconsistency has resurfaced.
Forced to retire during his opening match in Montreal, Wawrinka earned a few less-than-convincing wins in Cincinnati before crashing out in a lopsided loss to Novak Djokovic.
Drama swirled around Wawrinka at both events thanks to an unfortunate encounter with Nick Kyrgios. Now, the Stanimal must prove he can block out that noise and stay focused.
If that happens, Wawrinka shouldn't have much trouble reaching the quarterfinals. But if the draw goes according to plan and he faces Andy Murray in the quarterfinals, the fifth seed will have his hands full.
While he's beaten Murray twice before in New York, Wawrinka won't have the advantage this time.
Maria Sharapova: 9-1
7 of 12
Seed: No. 3
Prediction: A long time has passed since we've seen you on the court, Maria Sharapova.
Unable to compete in Toronto and Cincinnati because of a right leg injury, the Russian hasn't played an official match since her semifinal loss to Serena Williams at Wimbledon.
Nearly two months later, how will that long layoff impact her when she steps up to the line in New York?
Expect some rust. She'll have to quickly shake any off as Daria Gavrilova, who won their 2015 Miami Open meeting, is her opening foe. From there, Sharapova could face countrywomen Svetlana Kuznetsova and Ekaterina Makarova in the third and fourth rounds.
Elsewhere in that quarter are Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic. If her movement isn't compromised, Sharapova should take advantage of the opportunity given to her and survive until the latter stages.
Serena Williams, however, is blocking Sharapova's path to the final. And we all know how one-sided their rivalry has been. Sharapova will go no further than that point.
Victoria Azarenka: 8-1
8 of 12
Seed: No. 19
Prediction: Despite her low seed, the oddsmakers are betting on Victoria Azarenka to go far in New York. A favorable draw may actually make that a realistic possibility.
The first seeded player Azarenka could face is Angelique Kerber in the third round. A win there would book a potential clash in her next match with No. 6 Lucie Safarova. Both matches would be tough but winnable.
In the quarterfinals and semifinals, Azarenka could face Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki. She'd have a sizable power advantage against those counterpunchers.
At 26-11 with no titles this year, Azarenka is still working her way back into form after a foot injury ended her 2014 season prematurely. But the 26-year-old Belarusian is currently dealing with another physical setback.
She retired during the middle of her third-round match in Cincinnati due to a leg injury—unfortunate timing ahead of the U.S. Open. While Azarenka doesn't seem overly concerned with the situation, there's no doubt it robbed her of some valuable match and practice time.
Azarenka shouldn't see reaching the final as an impossible task, but just staying healthy may the bigger problem. Tempered expectations should follow Azarenka until she proves her ability to stay on the court.
Roger Federer: 9-2
9 of 12
Seed: No. 2
Prediction: Will Roger Federer's aggressive new return strategy help him finally end his three-year Grand Slam drought?
At age 34, the clock is ticking for the Swiss legend to add an eighteenth major. But just when we declare that whatever Grand Slam he's currently playing is his last best chance to go all the way, Federer somehow keeps extending that window.
Clearly, coming so close and failing (again) to win Wimbledon puts added emphasis on his trip to the U.S. Open. A hungry Federer opted to skip Montreal to allow his body extra rest time before traveling to New York, and that tactic payed off with an impressive title last week in Cincinnati.
Straight-sets wins over Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic at the Western and Southern Open, along with the service rhythm he's been on the last two months, have imbued Federer with a soaring level of confidence.
Tricky early opponents could include John Isner and Philipp Kohlschreiber before a possible quarterfinal clash with Tomas Berdych. He'll likely pass those tests with flying colors.
Based on the form he's shown lately, expect Federer to navigate himself into his first U.S. Open final since 2009 and bid for his sixth crown in Flushing Meadows.
Andy Murray: 7-2
10 of 12
Seed: No. 3
Prediction: There will be no easing into the tournament for Andy Murray.
Handed a daunting draw, the world No. 3 faces volatile Nick Kyrgios in a blockbuster first-round matchup. The 2012 champion and 2008 runner-up, Murray's experience at Arthur Ashe Stadium should guide him through that challenge. But Kyrgios is a player who can beat anyone when he's focused.
Assuming he does outlast the Aussie, Murray will get a bit of a breather before potentially squaring off with Kevin Anderson in the fourth round. Then, things become exponentially more difficult.
If he's to raise the title in New York, Murray likely must pass through Stan Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in succession. Talk about daunting.
What should give Murray hope is his steadily improving results since spring. A title in Montreal over Djokovic and a semifinal berth in Cincinnati offered the Scot plenty of match preparation heading to New York, so look for him to be sharp.
Still, Murray's arduous draw could force him to wait a little bit longer for the breakthrough he's seeking.
Novak Djokovic: 6-5
11 of 12
Seed: No. 1
Prediction: Despite losing in the finals of Montreal and Cincinnati, Novak Djokovic enters the U.S. Open as the clear favorite. And rightfully so.
In the last 20 Grand Slams played, the Djoker has found himself in the championship match 15 times. That's staggering consistency.
Dealt a relatively straightforward draw, Djokovic shouldn't be seriously troubled until a potential quarterfinal date with rival Rafael Nadal. Whether or not the Spaniard actually reaches that point is very much up in the air. Given Djokovic's routine win over Nadal at the French Open, he would enter that match with a decided edge.
With both Roger Federer and Andy Murray in the opposite half of the draw, Djokovic could be headed toward a semifinal showdown with Kei Nishikori, who won their meeting in the same round last year. He'll be salivating at the chance to extract some payback for that defeat.
Though the world No. 1 surprisingly has only one title in New York, his track record at the U.S. Open (semifinals or better eight-straight times) speaks for itself. Watch for Djokovic to make a serious run at his third Grand Slam of 2015 and the 10th of his career.
Serena Williams: 5-6
12 of 12
Seed: No. 1
Prediction: Serena Williams is chasing history, inching closer and closer to the sport's most hallowed records.
With the first calendar Grand Slam since 1988 within her grasp, intense pressure will be on Williams to add a fourth-straight U.S. Open crown and the 22nd major of her career.
To achieve those lofty goals, the world No. 1 will have to navigate a tough path to the championship. From the third round to the final, here is a list of potential opponents for Williams: Sloane Stephens, Madison Keys, Belinda Bencic, Maria Sharapova and Simona Halep.
As tough as that list looks on paper, there's no reason to believe Williams won't run the table. She's simply on another level from every other competitor in 2015, exuding a dominance that strikes doubt and fear into every women she plays.
Williams is so close to the finish line of a transcendent season. She won't stumble now; victory in New York is her destiny.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com and WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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