Stock Up, Stock Down on MLB's Top 10 Prospects 1 Week from Roster Expansion
When you consider how many prospects who were considered to be among the best in baseball currently litter major league rosters, it'd be easy to believe that the minor leagues have taken a major hit or to think there's not another wave of premier talent working its way through the system.
In some regard, you may be right. The 2015 season will long be remembered as the "Season of the Prospect," one that saw some of the best talent baseball has to offer, such as Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant, make major league debuts.
But there's another crop of big-time talent developing down on the farm—some closer to the big leagues than others—and with MLB rosters set to expand to 40 players September 1, we could find ourselves adding even more names to the list of those who made their big league debuts in 2015.
While guys such as Minnesota's Byron Buxton and Washington's Trea Turner currently reside on MLB.com's list of baseball's top prospects (as they still retain prospect status), they're in the big leagues now, making them ineligible here.
So we'll turn to the next eligible player(s) on that list as we take a look at which of baseball's 10 best prospects have seen their stock rise—or fall—with the end of the minor league season and MLB roster expansion nearly here.
Note: Players listed in alphabetical order.
Stock Up: Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
1 of 102015 Stats (Double-A): 115 G, .302/.342/.451, 47 XBH (8 HR), 62 RBI, 26 BB, 63 K, 23-of-31 SB
In a league littered with players far older than him—only three who call the Southern League home are younger than the 21-year-old, per Minor League Central—Orlando Arcia produces at an elite level. He sits among the league leaders in multiple categories, including batting average, RBI and total bases.
Baseball America bumped him up to No. 8 on its midseason update of baseball's 50 best prospects after ranking him 94th on its preseason Top 100. No other player has seen his stock take such a meteoric rise this season. And that stock continues to go up.
In the midst of a seven-game hitting streak during which he's hit .407 (11-for-27), Arcia could very well find himself in the big leagues as early as next week when rosters expand.
Whether he's a better option than Jean Segura for Milwaukee right now is up for debate, but there's no question he is not only Milwaukee's shortstop of the future, but also a huge part of the core that will usher in a new era of Brewers baseball over the next few years.
Stock Even: J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
2 of 10
2015 Stats (High-A/Double-A): 94 G, .286/.375/.410, 29 XBH (6 HR), 36 RBI, 54 BB, 45 K, 11-of-15 SB
Another young prospect who's finding success against older competition on a daily basis is 20-year-old J.P. Crawford, who continues to leave little doubt he is the cornerstone Philadelphia's future will be built around.
As his current hitting coach, former MLB All-Star Mickey Morandini, told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, Crawford has "it," that impossible-to-define trait that, after watching him play, you just know that he's got a bright future ahead of him.
"It really is hard to explain. Part of it is absolutely a mental thing. But his physical skills are really good. His hand-eye coordination is off the charts. Hands are great defensively. He's got the bat speed. He can run a little bit. The total package."
What's not hard to explain—or maybe it is, given his age—is Crawford's uncanny plate discipline, which allows him to walk more than he strikes out. That consistent ability to get on base only adds to his mystique.
That's not to say Crawford is immune to bouts of whiffing. Take his last 10 games, for example, a stretch that's seen him hit .268 (11-for-41) with twice as many strikeouts (six) as walks (three). But that doesn't change Crawford's long-term outlook or lessen his sharp eye at the plate.
Again, he's only 20 years old.
We could very well see Crawford make his major league debut when rosters expand, as getting him some experience against big league pitching down the stretch could prove invaluable in his quest to be Philadelphia's starting shortstop, perhaps as early as next season.
Stock Down: Joey Gallo, 3B/OF, Texas Rangers
3 of 10
2015 Stats (Double-A/Triple-A): 80 G, .243/.350/.534, 41 XBH (22 HR), 59 RBI, 49 BB, 128 K, 2-of-2 SB
Joey Gallo's ticket to the big leagues was always going to be his power, and he put that on display in his first taste of the majors earlier this season, smacking five home runs in 25 games for the Texas Rangers.
While sluggers like Gallo always tend to have a lot of swing-and-miss in their game, Gallo took that to the extreme, fanning 43 times in 98 plate appearances—a 43.9 percent strikeout rate.
That hasn't gotten much better since he returned to the minors. Take his last 10 games, for instance. Gallo has struck out 17 times over 42 plate appearances, still swinging and missing more than 40 percent of the time.
As you'd imagine. his inability to make consistent contact is having a nasty impact on his numbers. He's hitting only .167 (6-for-36) over that 10-game stretch and only .194 for Triple-A Round Rock, striking out a ridiculous 79 times in only 46 games.
His power is real and will find him back in the big leagues before long. But his inability to make the necessary adjustments and tighten things up at the plate make Gallo look like more of a complementary piece than someone Texas can count on to carry its offense at the next level.
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Stock Even: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
4 of 10
2015 Stats (High-A/Double-A): 18 G (16 GS), 5-6, 3.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 98.1 IP, 91 H, 34 BB, 114 K
Washington may have fallen behind the New York Mets in both the race for the National League East and as the team with baseball's most impressive starting rotation, but the Nationals have a potential game-changer making his way through the minors in 21-year-old Lucas Giolito.
It's true that Giolito wasn't quite as sharp last week as he was two weeks ago, when he tossed seven innings of shutout, one-hit ball against Bowie, striking out 11 en route to being named the Eastern League's Pitcher of the Week.
But he still picked up his second Double-A win, with five frames of one-run ball against Akron despite spotty control, issuing three walks while fanning five. Even with numbers on the year that don't quite pop as you'd expect, Giolito remains baseball's top pitching prospect.
Armed with a fastball that can routinely hit triple digits, a nasty curveball and a seemingly natural ability to make batters swing and miss, Giolito figures to be given every opportunity to replace Jordan Zimmermann in the Nationals rotation next spring, assuming Zimmermann leaves as a free agent.
Stock Up: Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
5 of 10
2015 Stats (Low-A/Double-A/Triple-A): 19 GS, 6-4, 2.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 95.2 IP, 69 H, 36 BB, 122 K
Tyler Glasnow wants nothing more than to be a contributor for the Pittsburgh Pirates at the major league level, but the 22-year-old isn't about to press the issue, as he explained recently while a guest on The Fan Morning Show on 93.7 FM in Pittsburgh:
"Each year, I’ve gotten so much better. I’ve had the routine they give me, and then I’ve just gotten so much better each year. So, part of me is just like, they know what they’re doing, they’ve done this a lot longer than I have, so why rush it? So, if they move me up, they move me up. If they don’t, they don’t.
Hopefully, one day, I can be there and stay there…I trust the pace that they go to and I’ve never really had any kind of problem with it.
"
While Glasnow's numbers across three minor league levels are nothing short of stellar, the 6'8" righty knows he's not yet a finished product, pointing to his still-developing secondary offerings and controlling the opposition's running game as things he needs to work on.
Over his last 10 starts, spanning 57.1 innings and split equally between Double-A and Triple-A, he's allowed only 11 earned runs and 44 hits while walking 22 and striking out 80. That works out to a 1.73 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with ratios of 3.4 walks per nine innings and 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
There's certainly a case to be made for Glasnow to join the Pirates before rosters expand, if only to give manager Clint Hurdle the option of using him in the postseason. But the far more likely scenario is that Glasnow will get his first taste of the big leagues in 2016, perhaps breaking camp with the club.
Stock Up: Yoan Moncada, 2B, Boston Red Sox
6 of 10
2015 Stats (Single-A): 68 G, .292/.383/.459, 27 XBH (7 HR), 33 RBI, 31 BB, 66 K, 40-of-43 SB
Before Yoan Moncada signed with the Boston Red Sox in March, talk of just how good the 20-year-old Cuban sensation was—and could be—was off the charts.
“He may be better than [Yasiel] Puig or [Jose] Abreu or [Yoenis] Cespedes or [Jorge] Soler,” one National League general manger told the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo. “Certainly there’s more upside, and the fact he’s a middle infielder who can hit for average and power makes him a much sought-after commodity. There isn’t anyone who compares to him in the draft or a player of his age around the league. He’s got every tool.”
And while it took a little while for Moncada to get going, he's put each of those tools on display for all to see in what has been an outstanding professional-debut season. His performance over his last 10 games serves as a perfect example of his many tools at work.
Over that stretch, he's hitting .341 (14-for-41), with seven extra-base hits (two home runs), seven RBI, six walks, seven strikeouts, 10 runs scored and 15 stolen bases.
It's his ability to impact the game in multiple ways that makes him such an exciting prospect. While he'll finish the season at Single-A, Moncada figures to start next season at Double-A, and if he can continue to put up these kind of numbers, he will be playing in Boston before too long.
Stock Even: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
7 of 10
2015 Stats (Rookie): 31 G, .250/.321/.358, 7 XBH (2 HR), 15 RBI, 13 BB, 35 K, 4-of-7 SB
Less than two months after Colorado made him the third overall selection in the 2015 draft, Brendan Rodgers is still getting his feet wet as a professional ballplayer.
"It's been a roller-coaster ride so far, but I'm having a blast," Rodgers told the Denver Post's Irv Moss. "It has been a little more difficult than I thought it would be. But hopefully I can finish a little stronger over these last couple of weeks. My defense still is there."
The grind of minor league ball has certainly taken its toll on the 19-year-old shortstop, who has hit .250 (10-for-40) over his last 10 games, striking out 13 times. But that's to be expected in a player's first taste of the minors, especially one who's coming straight out of high school.
We won't really have a good read on Rodgers until he begins his first full season of ball in 2016, likely at Single-A Asheville, but he remains a prospect with all the requisite tools to have a long, successful career, whether it be at shortstop or third base.
Stock Down: Corey Seager, 3B/SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
8 of 10
2015 Stats (Double-A/Triple-A): 114 G, .294/.343/.479, 50 XBH (16 HR), 66 RBI, 33 BB, 71 K, 4-of-5 SB
At this point, promoting Corey Seager to the big leagues when rosters expand is probably the worst thing that the Los Angeles Dodgers could do.
First and foremost, there's no clear path to playing time for the 21-year-old infielder, not with the Dodgers having five players capable of playing some combination of second base, shortstop and third base already on the roster—and eventually a sixth when Howie Kendrick (hamstring) comes off the disabled list.
But more than that, Seager has been in a funk for most of the season's second half, including a current 10-game slump that finds him hitting .250 (11-for-44), with two home runs, six RBI and 12 strikeouts. Letting him get an early start on the offseason, away from the game and enabling him to clear his head, might be best.
While his stock is down because of his current funk, Seager remains baseball's top prospect, with a bat that can hit for both average and power and the defensive chops to handle shortstop, regardless of whether he ultimately winds up at third base.
No matter how things ultimately play out for the rest of the year, Seager is in line to take over as the Dodgers' starting shortstop in 2016.
Stock Up: Dansby Swanson, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
9 of 102015 Stats (Low-A): 10 G, .268/.326/.537, 8 XBH (1 HR), 9 RBI, 4 BB, 7 K
Like Colorado's Brendan Rodgers, Arizona's Dansby Swanson, the first overall pick in this year's draft, is only just beginning to get his professional career underway.
While 10 games is nowhere near an adequate sample size to get a good read on him, Swanson has been impressive thus far. Eight of his 11 hits on the season have gone for extra bases, and he's shown the range and athleticism necessary to stick at shortstop.
He figures to start 2016 back at Low-A Hillsboro but could quickly make his way through the lower levels of Arizona's farm system if he continues to show an advanced approach at the plate.
Stock Up: Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
10 of 10
2015 Stats (Rookie/High-A/Double-A): 15 GS, 3-4, 3.21 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 70 IP, 58 H, 16 BB, 80 K
Los Angeles' Julio Urias might be the most impressive prospect in all the minor leagues. The youngest player in all of Double-A at age 19, Urias is in the conversation with Washington's Lucas Giolito as the best pitching prospect in baseball.
Despite missing nearly two months in the middle of the season after undergoing eye surgery, Urias has been dominant across three minor league levels. That's especially true in Double-A, where he's pitched to a 3.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 12 starts for Tulsa, striking out 71 batters over 62.1 innings of work while walking only 15.
“This kid is a major league pitcher waiting to happen, and he’s only 19 years old—just turned 19,” Tulsa manager Razor Shines told Tulsa World's Alex Abrams after Urias' most recent start, in which he allowed one run over six innings of work, walking one and striking out eight. “He’s the real deal.”
The Dodgers have essentially allowed Urias' performance to dictate how quickly he rises through the minors, a slow, steady approach that has done nothing but continue to bolster his stock. At this rate, Urias seems a lock to make his major league debut before he celebrates his 20th birthday next August.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of MILB.com and are current through games of August 23.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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