Bold Prediction for Every Top 25 Team's 2015 Season
Soon, bold predictions won't matter because actual college football games will be played and results will speak for themselves.
Oh, who are we kidding? Piping hot takes will always be part of the game. But now is as good a time as any to get one last good dose of bold predictions in before the 2015 season gets under way. So, we've listed off things that could happen in the right circumstances, good or bad, for each Top 25 team as determined by the preseason USA Today Amway Coaches Poll.
With that, let's get to those predictions and throw all caution out the window. Mmmmmm....bold flavor.
25. Tennessee
1 of 25
Bold Prediction: Quarterback Joshua Dobbs Wins the Heisman
According to the latest Heisman numbers from Odds Shark, Dobbs is at 100-1 odds to bring home college football's most prestigious individual award. Compare that to earlier numbers when he was off the board.
That's certainly enough to call Dobbs a long shot to win the Heisman, but consider the following: Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston and Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel came out of nowhere to win the award. Dobbs isn't coming out of nowhere, per se, but the point is long odds don't prohibit a quarterback from winning the Heisman.
Dobbs plays the right position and can rack up stats with his arm and his legs. If Tennessee has a big year in the SEC East, Dobbs could find his way to New York for the Heisman ceremony—and maybe return to Knoxville with a gift.
24. Boise State
2 of 25
Bold Prediction: The Broncos Crash the College Football Playoff
I touched on this a little bit earlier this month. The long story short is that two things would need to happen for Boise State to finish among the top four teams at season's end: First, the Broncos would have to go undefeated. There is no wiggle room here. Secondly, all hell would have to break loose.
What would that look like? Imagine 2007. You remember that year. Michigan lost to Appalachian State in Week 1, setting off a chain of upsets the likes of which we had never seen before. For goodness sakes, look at these BCS Top 25 standings from Week 6, Week 7 and Week 8. What in the name of all that is holy was going on there?
Now, picture that, but with everybody having at least two or three losses at year's end. That's how Boise State gets into the playoff. It'd be ugly, and fans might considering shutting the whole thing down, but it would be one crazy season.
23. Missouri
3 of 25
Bold Prediction: Mizzou Gets Its Third Straight SEC East Title
Winning one SEC East championship was a huge deal for Missouri. Winning a second one was even bigger. Could Gary Pinkel's Tigers do it again for a third straight year?
Many people don't believe so. According to the media's SEC preseason poll, Mizzou is projected to finish third in the East Division behind Georgia and Tennessee (via Saturday Down South's Christopher Smith). Certainly, the rise of the Vols under head coach Butch Jones is a storyline, as is Georgia running back Nick Chubb, arguably the conference's best player. That doesn't leave a lot of love for the two-time reigning East champs.
But, gone are edge-rushers Shane Ray and Markus Golden. Marcus Loud was dismissed from the team in May. Defense is what carried Mizzou to Atlanta last season. This year, quarterback Maty Mauk has to take a huge step forward for that to happen again.
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22. Arizona
4 of 25
Bold Prediction: The Wildcats Post Two 1,000-yard Rushers
In the three years Rich Rodriguez has been Arizona's head coach, the Wildcats have had go-to, 1,000-yard backs. Whether it's Ka'Deem Carey or Nick Wilson, Arizona has had a guy it can rely on to carry the load of the run game.
In 2015, though, could the Wildcats share the love more? Jared Baker, the No. 3 running back a year ago, is looking for more carries this season.
“Behind Nick, I think Jared is a co-starter,” Rodriguez told Daniel Berk of the Arizona Daily Star. “Obviously Nick is a proven guy, but we think Jared is, too. He had a great offseason.”
Baker had just 25 carries last year. Obviously, his work load would need to increase a lot. Sophomore quarterback Anu Solomon had the team's second-most carries in 2014. Rodriguez has never been one to shy his quarterback away from carries, so between Solomon and Baker, there are two candidates who could take the load off Wilson.
21. Stanford
5 of 25
Bold Prediction: Quarterback Kevin Hogan Is Named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year
Statistically, Hogan had a decent year in 2014. He accounted for 24 total touchdowns and more than 3,000 yards of total offense. However, anyone who watched Stanford last year knows Hogan and the Cardinal offense had their share of struggles.
But Hogan showed promise in his final three performances of the season against Cal, UCLA and Maryland. That certainly provides reason for optimism heading into '15. With no bell-cow running back, Hogan could once again be asked to be a major part of the running game.
If he continues to improve as a passer—he'll have to do so without safety net Ty Montgomery—then there's an argument to be made that Hogan will become the most valuable offensive player in the Pac-12.
20. Arkansas
6 of 25
Bold Predictions: The Hogs Finally Knock Off Alabama...in Tuscaloosa
After winning four of their final six games and posting two shutouts, Arkansas blasted into the offseason with tons of momentum. But the reality is this is still a program that finished last in the SEC West a year ago. Can the Razorbacks go from last to first in the division in one year's time?
That might be asking a lot, but there's definitely room to grow. Arkansas will have to navigate through a tough schedule to do so, though. The Hogs have a particularly tough stretch from late September through October, when it plays Texas A&M, Tennessee, Alabama and Auburn in successive weeks.
Getting through that stretch undefeated will be an unenviable request, but if there's one game that stands out, it's the road game against Alabama. The Hogs haven't toppled the Tide since 2006, but they came so close last year, losing 14-13.
Even with the season-ending injury to running back Jonathan Williams, Arkansas' ground game is outstanding. Can it play keep away from Alabama's rebuilt offense long enough to pull off a stunner on the road? That would be the highlight of Arkansas' season, for sure.
19. Oklahoma
7 of 25
Bold Prediction: Oklahoma's Starting Quarterback Will Be...Not Baker Mayfield.
When Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops took the podium at Big 12 media days in July, he made one thing clear, unprompted:
"I know it's popular for everyone to act like a certain guy has already got the job. That couldn't be further from the truth," Stoops said. "Trevor Knight and Baker Mayfield are in a tight battle, and Cody Thomas is right on their heels."
The long assumption has been that Mayfield, a Texas Tech transfer, was the shoo-in to start in Week 1. However, the race, by all reports, is still tight. Ryan Aber of the Oklahoman even wrote this week that Thomas has been "surging" as of late.
It brings to mind the quarterback competition between Knight and Blake Bell a couple of years ago. The longer the competition went on, the better chance Knight had of earning the job. The longer this one goes on, the more it seems Mayfield isn't a certainty to start.
So, here's the bold prediction that could very well be wrong in a matter of days: Thomas, not Mayfield, takes the field first.
18. Wisconsin
8 of 25
Bold Prediction: The Badgers Do Not Produce a 1,000-yard Running Back
To be clear, the last time Wisconsin did not produce a 1,000-yard running back was 2004 when Anthony Davis led the team with 973 yards. Since then, the Badgers have regularly had productive running backs eclipsing 1,000 yards—usually with ease. Melvin Gordon, in fact, did it two times over in 2014.
Could that change with Corey Clement in 2015?
Yes, the junior rushed for 949 yards last season while serving as a complement to Gordon. However, the Badgers have to replace three-fifths of their offensive line from a year ago and could feature multiple freshmen up front. Couple that with a passing game that has a lot to prove, and that's a recipe for defenses to load up the box.
Make no mistake, the Badgers are still deep at running back, but without a game-changer like Gordon, can one of them eclipse 1,000 yards even in a run-first offense?
17. Georgia Tech
9 of 25
Bold Prediction: Quarterback Justin Thomas Is Named ACC Player of the Year
Clemson is the media's preseason favorite to win the ACC in 2015. Not surprisingly, Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson is projected to be named the conference's player of the year. In the spirit of bold predictions, though, we're going with Thomas to take home the award over Watson and Pitt running back James Conner.
Thomas is easily one of the ACC's best quarterbacks, along with Watson and Miami's Brad Kaaya; he just doesn't play the same type of game they do. Last season, few teams finished stronger than Georgia Tech, and Thomas was a big reason for that. Against Florida State and Mississippi State, Thomas had nearly 500 combined yards of total offense.
The Yellow Jackets lost basically all of their starters at running back and receiver, so Thomas is the veteran on a new-look team. But if he can surpass 3,000 yards of total offense on the season, he has a chance to earn player-of-the-year honors.
16. Arizona State
10 of 25
Bold Prediction: D.J. Foster Will Lead the Pac-12 in Receiving Yards
Gone to the NFL is leading receiver Jaelen Strong, and Cameron Smith is out for the year with a knee injury. That leaves D.J. Foster, a former running back, to lead the Sun Devils in the passing game. Foster has a pure pocket passer in Mike Bercovici who can get him the ball, so Foster's targets should be plentiful.
Foster is one of the Pac-12's most versatile athletes. His opportunities will be there. But with the attrition Arizona State's wide receiver unit has experienced, Foster's importance has increased dramatically. As the team's top offensive weapon, expect Foster to be the No. 1 guy in the passing game.
15. Ole Miss
11 of 25
Bold Prediction: Ole Miss Wins the SEC West
2015 has a "if not now, then when?" type of feel to it for Ole Miss. This, after all, is the type of year head coach Hugh Freeze built for when he signed the heralded 2013 class that featured, among others, offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil, receiver Laquon Treadwell and safety Tony Conner.
The SEC West could be wide-open this year if Alabama struggles to replace several key members of its record-breaking offense from 2014. With all the NFL talent Ole Miss has—the '16 draft could be huge for the Rebels—why can't this season be the one in which Freeze's team finally takes that next step?
Yes, Freeze is a relentless and exceptional recruiter. But when is Ole Miss going to have an opportunity as straightforward as this one?
14. UCLA
12 of 25
Bold Prediction: Running Back Paul Perkins Leads the Pac-12 in Rushing Again
Put simply, UCLA running back Paul Perkins doesn't get enough credit. He led the Pac-12 in rushing in 2014 with 1,575 yards—and that was with the myriad problems the Bruins had along the offensive line. With a veteran line in place this time around and potentially a freshman quarterback, Perkins could be the star of the offense.
With so many big-name running backs, such as Nick Chubb and Ezekiel Elliott, it could be hard for Perkins to break into the Heisman conversation. But, another year like he had in '14, coupled with an experienced team, and UCLA could shock by winning the Pac-12 South. With an additional two games—at least, depending on the Bruins' postseason schedule—there's no reason why Perkins can't eclipse his total from last year.
13. LSU
13 of 25
Bold Prediction: Leonard Fournette Will Lead the SEC in Rushing
Yes, we're going on the record to say Fournette, not Georgia's Nick Chubb, will lead the SEC in rushing yards in 2015. Since three of last year's top six rushers are gone—two went to the NFL, while Arkansas' Jonathan Williams is out for the season—that means Fournette is already one of the best returning players at his position.
But Fournette has other things going for him as well. He has a big offensive line to run behind, and his speed and size combination makes him one of the toughest players to bring down, according to Florida defensive end Jonathan Bullard (via AJC.com's Andy Johnston).
With so much uncertainty still swirling around the quarterback situation—more specifically, whether that situation will actually improve—Fournette could once again be the staple of the offense. And if he gets off to a faster start than he did as a freshman, the quarterback, whoever it is, may not have to pass.
12. Clemson
14 of 25
Bold Prediction: The Tigers Win at Least One Marquee Game with Defense
Clemson had, arguably, college football's best and most athletic defense a year ago. It was full of veteran players, such as defensive end Vic Beasley, who went on to the NFL. The fallout is Clemson must now rebuild that defense.
The good news for Clemson fans is there is young talent waiting in the wings, and Brent Venables is still the defensive coordinator. It's just that experience is at a premium. However, with players such as cornerback Mackensie Alexander, linebacker Ben Boulware and defensive end Shaq Lawson, the cupboard certainly isn't bare.
So much attention goes to quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Tigers offense—and rightfully so. It could be the ACC's best offense this year. But we're predicting, with Venables coaching up a young defense, there will be at least one marquee game—be it against Notre Dame or Florida State—when that defense rises to the occasion to pull out a victory.
11. Notre Dame
15 of 25
Bold Prediction: Quarterback Malik Zaire Eclipses 2,500 Yards Passing
In this day and age, 2,500 yards passing is no big deal. Washington State had that in one game last year, I think. But when you're first-year starting quarterback Malik Zaire, 2,500 yards through the air would be a big accomplishment.
To date, Zaire is known as more of a rushing threat than a passing one. His 96 yards on the ground in the Music City Bowl against LSU was a fine performance. Notre Dame's offense will revolve more around the run with Zaire in the backfield, as noted in a column from Kevin Trahan of USA Today, but with William Fuller and Corey Robinson back, Zaire has two exceptional pass-catchers ready to balance the offense.
If Zaire can show that he's even serviceable in the passing game, he should eclipse this number.
10. USC
16 of 25
Bold Prediction: The Trojans Fail to Win the Pac-12 South
At the risk of ticking off USC fans everywhere, we're going to say USC's playoff aspirations fall short. This would be huge. The Trojans have one of the top quarterbacks in the country, Cody Kessler, a bona fide star at receiver in JuJu Smith, one of the country's best defenders in Su'a Cravens and as versatile an athlete as you're going to find in Adoree' Jackson.
So why are we selling stock? For one, the defensive line play is a concern. Depth up front was abysmal during the spring and is aided by players returning from injuries and incoming freshmen. Still, with the loss of edge-rusher Leonard Williams, this is a wait-and-see group.
Additionally, the Pac-12 South is the conference's strength. The possibility of USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah cannibalizing on each other isn't far-fetched.
One slip-up—a Hail Mary, perhaps?—could cost USC its South Division title. That's how close this race could be.
9. Georgia
17 of 25
Bold Prediction: The Bulldogs Will Play Multiple Quarterbacks This Year
Georgia's three-man quarterback race doesn't look like it's going to be solved anytime soon, as Bleacher Report colleague Barrett Sallee wrote a couple of weeks ago. Faton Bauta, Brice Ramsey and Virginia graduate transfer Greyson Lambert are all in the mix as preseason camp rages on. All three bring a little something different to the position battle.
The good news for the Bulldogs is there doesn't need to be an answer at quarterback right away. The first two games against Louisiana-Monroe and Vanderbilt give Georgia plenty of time to see who shines in game play. The season's third game against South Carolina should be the first major litmus test.
The first couple of weeks should provide Georgia's quarterbacks with an opportunity to state their cases. But if the battle is as close as it seems, don't be surprised if multiple quarterbacks play throughout the year if no one can consistently hold on to the job.
8. Florida State
18 of 25
Bold Prediction: Sean Maguire Will Start at Quarterback
College football's grad-transfer craze leads to a lot of assumptions. One of them is that a grad-transfer quarterback is immediately going to start for his new school. That's not necessarily the case with Florida State and Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson, however.
First of all, head coach Jimbo Fisher has already said bringing Golson in was about fueling competition, not anointing him the starter.
Fisher told Bill Bender of Sporting News:
"I was already 100 percent sold on Sean. But when you have the opportunity to bring in a very experienced guy who has led his team to a national championship (game), who led his team to a 6-0 start and actually was a pick play from having success against us, when you can add that to your team, that much experience and that much talent, why would you not?
"
Maguire didn't have the best spring game, but he also played last year in his lone start against Clemson. Golson is experienced, but he's almost like a freshman coming into a new environment with a lot to prove.
7. Auburn
19 of 25
Bold Prediction: Jason Smith Challenges Pharoh Cooper for the SEC's Best Wide Receiver
Auburn has what it believes to be one of the SEC's better true passers in Jeremy Johnson. The Tigers' wide receiver corps should benefit. But with Sammie Coates having gone to the NFL and Duke Williams perpetually in and out of the doghouse, there's room for JUCO transfer Jason Smith to make a huge impact right away.
It's well-documented that Johnson and Smith were former teammates in the Mississippi-Alabama All-Star Game. That familiarity could bleed over into the season with an enhanced passing attack.
Offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee had this to say about Smith, via Brandon Marcello of AL.com:
"You can just tell he's in a good place, and he's been one of those guys in the first four days that's been really impressive. I mean, if you were to ask me some guys that stand out, he's really stood out. And again, him and Jeremy, they seem to have a pretty good connection so we're optimistic and excited about what he can do this year.
"
Wide receiver is a new position for Smith, but it seems he's quickly adjusting well.
6. Michigan State
20 of 25
Bold Prediction: Quarterback Connor Cook Remains the Big Ten's Leading Passer
Though Ohio State quarterbacks received far more national attention, Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook actually led the Big Ten in passing yards per game in 2014 (247.2). The Spartans' top two pass-catchers from a year ago are gone, but there is some returning talent in the receiving corps, with Aaron Burbridge, Macgarrett Kings Jr. and R.J. Shelton. Additionally, tight end Josiah Price is a huge red-zone weapon.
Cook has the arm strength, pocket awareness, supporting cast and experience to be the Big Ten's best passer this season. The challengers will be Ohio State's quarterback, whoever that is, and potentially Christian Hackenberg at Penn State. But the Spartans deserve credit for being a better offensive team than advertised. Cook is a big reason for that.
5. Oregon
21 of 25
Bold Prediction: Jeff Lockie Will Start at Quarterback, but Vernon Adams Jr. Will Play
Eastern Washington transfer quarterback Vernon Adams Jr.'s late arrival initially hurts his chances of starting in Week 1 against his old team. There's so much chemistry and trust he has to build with his teammates in a short amount of time. That's tough for anyone to do in general, let alone with a program guy like Lockie vying for the starting job.
Lockie doesn't possess the flash and physical skill Adams does, but the coaching staff is confident he can move the offense and hold on to the ball, according to head coach Mark Helfrich, speaking to SportsCenter (via Matt Prehm of 247Sports). It wouldn't be surprising to see Lockie start in Week 1 because of this.
However, Adams brings a whole other dimension to the offense Lockie does not, and it almost doesn't make any sense keeping him on the sideline. If Adams can close the gap quickly between him and Lockie in preseason camp, head coach Mark Helfrich might consider giving the transfer quarterback some snaps to let him use his athleticism.
4. Baylor
22 of 25
Bold Prediction: Baylor Ends Up with Two 1,000-Yard Receivers—Again
Last season, two Big 12 teams finished with a pair of 1,000-yard receivers: Kansas State (of all teams) and Baylor. The latter should come as no surprise, as Corey Coleman and freshman sensation KD Cannon lit up defenses on a weekly basis.
Here's betting the same two receivers top 1,000 yards again in 2015. The "bold" part of this whole thing comes from the fact that the Bears are breaking in a new quarterback: Seth Russell. While Russell has played well in limited action, it's come mostly against soft competition in garbage time.
While the plug-and-play assumption Baylor has enjoyed over the past few years is certainly warranted, there's also some reason to be reserved about a new signal-caller.
If Russell disproves that reservation, though, Baylor's "Wide Receiver U" reputation should get stronger.
3. Alabama
23 of 25
Bold Prediction: Alabama's Starting Quarterback Won't Be Jake Coker
Alabama's quarterback race exiting spring appeared to be little more than a two-man competition between Coker and David Cornwell. It's very possible either of those players starts in Week 1 for the Tide. Still, some news out of preseason camp this week raised some eyebrows.
According to Matt Zenitz of the Alabama Media Group, Alec Morris is making a push to be the Tide's starting quarterback. It might simply be that Morris had a good week in practice, and combined with Coker's foot injury, he closed the gap a little bit in the starting QB race.
A lot of time has passed between the time Coker transferred from Florida State and now, and yet he still has not been named the starter. The longer this quarterback competition goes on, the more likely another one of Alabama's quarterbacks takes a hold of the starting job.
2. TCU
24 of 25
Bold Prediction: The Frogs Will Lose a Game Before Their Nov. 27 Showdown vs. Baylor
Yes, the late-November game between Baylor and TCU in Fort Worth, Texas, will be, and should be, circled in red. It's the game of the year on paper in the Big 12 and potentially a de facto College Football Playoff quarterfinal.
However, going undefeated is so, so difficult, no matter how talented the team or how easy the schedule is. When you're a team like TCU, everyone wants to put a target on your back, and bad games can be costly. There are a few potential trap games that could trip TCU up before the Baylor game.
A trip to Lubbock to face Texas Tech can be tricky. Going to Kansas State is never fun, even if the Wildcats are likely to take a major step back on offense this year. The last three games with West Virginia have been tight, and a road trip to Oklahoma is set for the week before the Baylor game.
The point is there are a lot of places TCU can slip up. The defense must be rebuilt, which means there could be a smaller margin for error if quarterback Trevone Boykin has an off day. What would a loss mean for TCU's playoff chances? It would make the team more interesting. That's for sure.
1. Ohio State
25 of 25
Bold Prediction: Running back Ezekiel Elliott Tops 2,200 Rushing Yards
Considering Elliott rushed for 1,878 yards last year, leaving him just more than 100 yards shy of 2,000 yards, this probably isn't that bold of a prediction. Keep in mind that Elliott had fewer than 100 yards in five of his first eight games. It goes to show that even the best don't always get off to fast starts.
But Elliott finished as strong as any player in the country last year and enters 2015 with a ton of Heisman hype. It's going to take a Melvin Gordon-type of year for Elliott to make his way to New York for the Heisman ceremony. But if Gordon can't win the award with the type of year he had (2,587 yards), I'm not sure Elliott can, either.
That doesn't mean, though, that Elliott won't have an outstanding year. He's the bell-cow back for a team that now has an outstanding offensive line, two proven quarterbacks and a third former quarterback, Braxton Miller, who will be playing in space full time.
Even if Ohio State didn't make the national championship again, Elliott would "only" need to average 157 yards per game to reach that milestone. He's more than capable of that.
(As a reminder: The Associated Press preseason Top 25 will be released at 2 p.m. ET Sunday, Aug. 23.)
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
