Breaking Down Roger Federer's Current Form as the US Open Approaches

Roger Federer’s first match since Wimbledon was hardly a gem, but it was necessary to knock off some rust on his quest for the U.S. Open title. Federer closed out Roberto Bautista Agut 6-4, 6-4 to move on in Cincinnati’s Western & Southern Open.

Sporting a raspberry-colored shirt with dark blue shorts, the Swiss maestro looked as cool as ever, moving and hustling around the court with his cat-like footwork. He floated into his positions effortlessly and had no trouble stepping inside the baseline and swinging through Bautista Agut’s softer shots with a lot of balls in his hitting zone.

In a way, Bautista Agut was the perfect starting opponent. Like most of the control baseliners, he never troubled Federer because he did not have the power to knock him back or make him pay for coming in to net. So while the final score was a success, Federer was understandably shaky with a lot of his timing and execution.

Rust Never Sleeps

Federer has had plenty of rest and hitting sessions in midsummer, but there’s no substitution for match play. He needed to press out the wrinkles.

Coming in with his vertical game, Federer was sloppy with several forehands, pushing some of them out of bounds or into the net. It really didn’t matter, because Federer defended his serve easily enough despite only converting 43 percent of his first serves, according ATP World Tour. Bautista Agut could not muster up a single break point.

The good news for Federer was the spring in his step. He was relaxed in his approach and demeanor as if it were a sparring session. If he botched a swing, he just moved on, quickly and methodically, which is why he can finish off a lackluster match in just over an hour, appearing with little sweat and fresh for his next match. (So far, there are no plans for Federer to add four doubles matches this week.)

Federer has always been underrated with his defensive tennis and returns. Once again, it will be a key for him in trying to polish off a seventh Cincinnati title and his first U.S. Open title since 2008. It’s a tall order, but there is optimism that his skill set will give him another solid opportunity over the next few weeks.

Drawing Power

If players like Bautista Agut, Tommy Robredo (no, the 2013 U.S. Open really doesn’t mean anything for 2015 Federer), Gilles Simon, David Ferrer and David Goffin are in his path, Federer will have the luxury of his superior offensive firepower and variety. He’s rarely troubled by these kinds of players unless his own game implodes.

Even world No. 2 Andy Murray, the ultimate upgrade of this prototype, has rarely defeated Federer in the most important matches, and the result is almost always on the Swiss’ racket. Of course Murray can hardly be categorized with the former group, and his youth and energy this time of the year could rank him ahead of Federer for hard courts and U.S. Open chances.

The concern for Federer is if he runs into more powerful players who are also excellent athletes. If they find that special zone for a few hours, well, it can conjure up reminders of what Marat Safin accomplished to win the 2005 Australian Open.

Consider who can be dangerous for one potential match:

• Veteran Tomas Berdych has picked some spots in winning big matches against Federer, backed by his big groundstrokes and serve.
• Nick Kyrgios took Federer out at Madrid a few months ago.
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga overpowered the Swiss maestro in Canada a year ago.
• Compatriot Stan Wawrinka has recently presented powerful competitiveness in facing Federer, certainly on clay.

In last year's U.S. Open quarterfinals, Federer had to rally from a two-sets deficit against athletic Gael Monfils. Then he ran into a hot Marin Cilic who denied Federer a great chance to topple Kei Nishikori for his elusive 18th major.

And that’s the tricky part for Federer, where a very neutral court for so many dangerous players can raise up a few worthy challengers just to get to the semifinals or win against the likes of Murray or Novak Djokovic.

As always, Federer will need to be a sagacious server. He will need to create his offensive genius by executing the way he has under coach Stefan Edberg. Federer has accepted this transition and is unafraid to fail as long as it gives him a better chance to succeed.

Maybe the biggest key of all is how crisp he can play with his footwork and defensive opportunities. It’s important for him to transition quickly to offense because trading groundstrokes with Murray and Djokovic is a less effective strategy.

There’s more time to tune up for the U.S. Open as Federer roars on in Cincinnati, but all eyes are again riveted on the Swiss legend's pursuit of one more big championship in New York.