Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Week 20 Buzz, Rumors
We've all encountered people who, for one reason or another, insist that baseball is simply too boring to watch, too slow-paced for their liking. I'm here to tell you that laughing at those folks is an entirely acceptable response, because the evidence clearly suggests otherwise.
With roughly five weeks left in the regular season, we have five division races in which the second-place team sits no more than five games off the lead. A third of the clubs in baseball are within five games of a wild-card berth.
That's more than enough to get those of us with a pulse excited, and the rumblings and grumblings on the rumor mill only add to the intrigue and anticipation of what's to come, both in 2015 and beyond.
Will another manager lose his job before the end of the regular season? Is Chase Utley the missing link in Los Angeles? Has a toolsy outfielder done enough to guarantee himself a massive payday this offseason?
We'll tackle all of that and more in this week's edition of "Fact or Fiction."
Fact: Marlon Byrd Fits in San Francisco
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With Hunter Pence (oblique strain) joining Angel Pagan (tendinitis) on the disabled list, San Francisco was in the market for an outfielder. But the Giants weren't looking for just another live body—they wanted someone who would move the needle offensively, according to the San Francisco Chronicle's Henry Schulman.
Finding a player like that at this late stage of the season is easier said than done, of course, but it's not impossible.
Enter Marlon Byrd, formerly of the Cincinnati Reds, whom the Giants acquired Thursday for minor league pitcher Stephen Johnson, per ESPN.com.
While he strikes out a ton and isn't the complete player Pence is, Byrd's right-handed power is, at least, a suitable replacement for Pence in the middle of San Francisco's lineup. The 37-year-old's production has tapered off considerably of late, registering a paltry .180/.215/.311 slash line in his 61 at-bats during August.
But Byrd has proven he can catch fire and sustain dangerous slugging binges. Just this past May, his .581 slugging percentage placed eighth in the NL among all batters notching at least 75 at-bats during that month. Byrd's eight May home runs tied him with Ryan Braun for seventh in the NL.
Perhaps the Giants' magic touch will rub off on Byrd and he'll become their latest reclamation find. San Francisco had to do something, and Byrd was likely the best it could do. Given his track record, he just might catch fire and help them to the postseason.
Fiction: Chase Utley Fits in Los Angeles
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Since returning from the disabled list August 7, Chase Utley has proven he can still be a productive player. He's reached base safely in each of the eight games in which he's played, hitting a robust .484 (15-for-31) with six extra-base hits (one home run), five RBI and a 1.227 OPS.
And now, thanks to a Wednesday afternoon deal, he's been thrust into the thick of a playoff push in Los Angeles, joining the Dodgers in exchange for a pair of minor league players (Darnell Sweeney and John Richy).
Forget about the fact that Utley's arrival does nothing to bolster the team's bullpen, which is its true weakness. He's a fine replacement for the injured Howie Kendrick at second base, and perhaps his arrival will light a spark under his longtime double-play partner in Philadelphia, shortstop Jimmy Rollins.
But what happens when Kendrick's hamstring is healthy enough for him to return? Will he and Utley split time at the keystone? Will one play out of position at third base?
And what happens to Kike Hernandez, the 23-year-old who has performed admirably in limited playing time for the Dodgers, hitting .304 with 19 extra-base hits and an .865 OPS in 62 games? While he's capable of filling in at multiple positions and figures to return to his previous super-utility status, he's done nothing to deserve less playing time.
Is that the kind of message you want to send to any player, especially one just getting his career started?
This isn't to say that Utley isn't a fine addition for a playoff push. He's just not the right one for the Dodgers, who seem to have made a deal because it brings in a known name, not because it fills an actual need.
Fact: Dexter Fowler Is Going to Land a Big Payday This Winter
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It's never been a question of talent, but consistency is a problem when it comes to Dexter Fowler. And by way of his play—especially since the All-Star break—another question has popped up: How much will he be worth when he hits the open market as a free agent at season's end?
Before we answer that, let's take a look at where Fowler ranks statistically among players with at least 100 at-bats in the season's second half:
While it's an admittedly small sample size, those are some pretty impressive numbers. If he can maintain this pace for the rest of the campaign, Fowler will head into the offseason with as much momentum as any position player and will be poised to cash in.
ESPN.com's Jesse Rogers makes the case that Fowler is worth a Jacoby Ellsbury-esque deal this winter—seven years and $153 million—pointing to the fact that both will have hit the open market at similar ages and that the 29-year-old Fowler has a higher career on-base percentage (Fowler's is .364, Ellsbury's is .346) as reasons why.
But that seems a bit extreme for a player who will be entering his age-30 season and has yet to deliver a breakout performance over the course of 162 games. As Rogers concludes, four years at $70 to $80 million sounds about right for Fowler.
But with a dearth of quality center fielders set to hit the market—Fowler, Austin Jackson, Colby Rasmus and Denard Span are the four top options expected to be available—it's not hard to envision a scenario where a team winds up going five years and $100 million to bring Fowler aboard.
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Fiction: Matt Williams Won't Finish the Season in Washington
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Washington hasn't come close to meeting expectations this season and, as you'd expect, questions about manager Matt Williams' immediate future have only grown in frequency.
ESPN.com's Keith Law tweeted that he was surprised the former All-Star was still employed after the Nationals kicked off August with a three-game sweep at the hands of the New York Mets, while CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported shortly thereafter that the scene around the club was an "unhappy" one.
With the team six games under .500 for the month (6-12), one game over .500 for the season (60-59) and, if the campaign were to end Thursday, without a spot in the playoffs, nobody would blame the Nationals if they chose to shake things up and relieve Williams of his duties.
You can't fire the players, so changing managers is often the easiest way to try to light a fire in the clubhouse. But general manager Mike Rizzo has no plans to make such a move.
"I have nothing but complimentary things to say about our manager since we hired him," Rizzo recently told MLB.com's William Ladson.
To be sure, Williams is far from perfect. His bullpen management is questionable at best and downright maddening most nights—and some of his players find him to be "tight" and "never relaxed," according to Heyman.
But can you really blame Williams for being that way?
His best player from a year ago, Anthony Rendon, has played in only 39 games and hit .247 with a .651 OPS. His leadoff hitter, Denard Span, has played in only 59 games. Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman have been shells of the players they once were.
We'd all be "tight" if more than half our starting lineup was either injured or simply not producing.
As Rizzo told Ladson: "We certainly like the effort of the club. The talent level is there, but we have to play better baseball and be more consistent."
Williams will be given every opportunity to prove he can lead the Nationals out of their current hole and back into the playoffs.
Fiction: Dave Dombrowski's Arrival Guarantees Boston Will Contend in 2016
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Boston's decision to hire Dave Dombrowski as its president of baseball operations was a shrewd move, one that Rex Sox Nation should meet with overwhelming praise. But expectations should be tempered, for as good an executive as Dombrowski is, he's not a miracle worker.
And it's going to take a miracle for Boston to go from worst to first in 2016.
Yes, the 59-year-old has a lengthy track record of success and takes control of a franchise with pockets that are nearly as deep as its farm system, which is teeming with high-end prospects all around the diamond.
But he also inherits a flawed roster, one with little in the way of quality pitching, an aging core and two of the worst contracts in baseball, those belonging to Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.
Whether he ultimately hires a new general manager to replace the soon-to-be-departed Ben Cherington or not, there's little doubt that Boston will be the center of the offseason, with the club linked to nearly every name that comes across the rumor mill, especially those who make their home on the pitching mound.
But the Red Sox won't be the only big-market club looking to make improvements this winter. They'll face stiff competition for most of their top targets, and chances are they'll swing and miss on a few of them.
That said, Dombrowski's arrival guarantees Boston will be significantly better in 2016 than it was in 2015. Whether that's enough to return to contention, however, depends nearly as much on what other teams do than on the moves Boston makes itself.
It's simply far too early to say with any certainty that the Red Sox will contend in 2016.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through games of August 20. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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