5 Teams With a Realistic Chance of Crashing the 2026 CFB Playoff
Whenever the topic of choice turns to the College Football Playoff, the biggest teams in the country understandably get the first mention.
It's easy to highlight Texas storming back to beat Ohio State. It's easy to talk about Georgia, Miami and Notre Dame as high-end contenders and praise Indiana's hot start as the reigning national champion.
Dig beyond the headlines, though, and several teams are rising CFP threats.
These selections are subjective, but consider each program's performance so far in 2026 and its remaining schedule.
Kansas State Wildcats
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As usual, the Big 12 has a fascinating outlook. BYU and Utah have played well early on, but Texas Tech hasn't impressedโyet they're 2-0, with a clash against unbeaten Houston next on the docket.
Kansas State, meanwhile, is lurking.
First-year coach Collin Klein, back at his alma mater, has enjoyed a hot start with the Wildcats shredding Nicholls 71-3 and cruising past Washington State 34-7. The running game has excelled. The defense is causing havoc in the backfield. It's exactly what you'd expect from a heavy favorite in both games.
Adding to the early optimism is that K-State avoids BYU, Utah and Texas Tech in the regular season. Plus, the clash with Houston is at home.
It's a long year. We still need to see whether Avery Johnson has made enough improvements as a passer to handle the inevitable, pressure-filled moments.
But these Wildcats have a definite path to flirting with the Playoff radar.
Louisville Cardinals
2 of 5
In the immediate future, a home showdown with SMU is the priority for Louisville. Win that contest, and the Cardinalsโwho enter the ACC game ranked No. 22 nationallyโwould become the conference's second-highest-ranked team.
Even in defeat, Louisville must be respected.
Yes, there's a double-edged sword in playing its toughest two opponents right away. Falling to Ole Miss and SMU would limit the upside of UL's rรฉsumรฉ, but nine straight wins to close the regular season would grab attention. That's a distinct possibility with no Miami, Virginia or even Virginia Tech on the slate.
No matter the result in Week 3, the offense-driven Cards will stick in the ACC race. The standings are often a mess in November, as few other teams in the league have a combination as exciting as QB Lincoln Kienholz and running back Isaac Brown.
The team's margin for error is relatively thin, but overlook UL at your own risk.
North Dakota State Bison
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I mean, we're not surprised, right?
The most dominant FCS program of the last 15 years, North Dakota State has jumped to the highest level and kept winning. En route to 3-0, the Bison have defeated Jacksonville State, Fordham and Air Force.
As usual, a physical, run-first offense and stout defense are leading the way. NDSU already has a plus-five turnover margin as well. It's the same old story.
How the Bison handle the new stuff will be decisive, though.
Will they navigate trips to UNLV and New Mexicoโtwo of the Mountain West's perceived top contendersโand a first-ever journey to Hawaii? What happens if the FBS-level praise gets really loud? Can the entire team stay mentally focused?
Simultaneously, it's completely fair to believe in NDSU's ability to deal with success. This staff knows how to win and wastes no time showing it.
UTSA Roadrunners
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Elsewhere in the Group of Six realm, UTSA has an opportunity to command some national respect in Week 3 when it travels to Texas.
Sure, the Roadrunners will probably lose. They are hefty underdogs, after all. What you might see, however, is flashes of the high-powered offense that's built for a championship-type run in the American.
The schedule may help, too.
Not only is Memphis not on the slate, UTSA hosts South Florida and Navy next month. Tulsa, which popped in Week 1 with an upset of Oklahoma State, may deserve more attentionโand the Roadrunners are home for that matchup, too.
Simply playing in the Alamodome won't win games, but UTSA has an ideal match of talent and opportunity in 2026.
Virginia Cavaliers
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To open the campaign, Virginia ripped apart North Carolina State in a 34-8 rout. It was an emphatic start for last year's ACC runner-up.
If that is UVA's bar this season, we need to watch the Cavaliers closely.
Between an experienced offensive line, dual-threat QB Beau Pribula and a senior-heavy defense, the Hoos check a ton of popular boxes. There's plenty of evidence to believe in them based on their 2025 success.
Once again, the schedule is a theoretical boost as well. Traveling to SMU will be a challenge. Playing at rival Virginia Tech looks far more difficult this season. But there's no Miami, no Louisville, no Pitt.
Even if you don't project that UVA will finish 11-1 or 12-0, that possibility doesn't require much mental gymnastics. This veteran roster is a threat.
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