Expert CFB Betting Locks for Ole Miss vs. LSU and Week 3's Biggest Games
No matter how much we think we know, and no matter how much time and energy we spend to leap to these conclusions, sometimes (well, oftentimes) we're reminded how strange and magnificent college football can be.
Take Oregon, for example.
Everything about this roster seemed special. The quarterback, the defense, the weapons. Then the season began.
In two games, the Ducks nearly lost as a 25.5-point favorite then lost outright as a 23.5-point favorite. For what it's worth, we weren't on either of those plays. We did, however, predict that Oregon would win the national championship.
Needless to say, that isn't looking great.
Things move fast, and they will continue to move fast. Week 3 features one of the sport's most anticipated games and a slew of matchups that could serve as launchpads for hopeful teams.
As for us, we could use a launchpad. Things aren't great; things aren't bad. Picks have been hovering around .500 thus far, although a stretch of winning weeks is coming.
The first one begins here.
Last Week's Record: 4-5
Year to Date: 10-12
All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel
Ole Miss (+3) vs. LSU
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Our copy for this section was long submitted when LSU listed QB Sam Leavitt as "doubtful" for the game with an upper body injury on the injury report on Wednesday night.
It is indeed a talking point, likely as his coach intended, although we will remain convinced he's playing until further notice.
We could be right, we could be wrong. It doesn't change our stance either way. (Spoiler alert.)
It can be challenging to handicap an environment's true impact on a point spread, especially in college football, although the setting of this matchup will certainly have a sizable impact on what happens come Saturday night.
Lane Kiffin's team started slowly against Louisiana Tech in Week 2 before turning it on in the second half. What exactly does it tell us? It could have been a massive football hangover after a thrilling Week 1; it could be that Clemson, which produced another lackluster showing in Week 2, might simply be bad.
Either way, LSU's rebuilt roster will hit the road for the first time, taking on one of the most hostile scenes the sport has seen in some time. Given the way Kiffin left the program, those surveying the broadcast for obscene language and gestures should be on guard.
As for the game itself, the legs of both quarterbacks will likely help decide it. Trinidad Chambliss and Sam Leavitt are both exceptional at extending plays and causing chaos, and this will be a matchup loaded with potential broken, successful plays.
Will LSU be the more public side here? It's hard to know after a bit of a lackluster Week 2, but one of the early darlings of college football will certainly garner plenty of support.
This is a Chambliss pick. It's that simple. The QB has taken over many games since being thrust into this role, and he could do it again here.
The Pick: Ole Miss (+3)
Rutgers (+23.5) vs. USC
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Do we feel great about this? Not particularly.
Let's just get that out of the way.
Supporting a team that was throttled by UMass in the past month doesn't exactly ooze excellence. Not to mention, USC enters Week 3 with plenty of buzz and some young players emerging quickly.
But timing matters, and the timing of this football game is particularly interesting.
In Week 4, the Trojans will welcome the struggling Oregon Ducks into town—a game that could be monumental for Lincoln Riley's program. A cross-country trip to New Jersey in advance of such a massive game is a brilliant bit of scheduling.
It's also worth noting that this will serve as the Trojans' first road game of the year, meaning many of this team's young players—and there are some really good ones on offense—will have to recalibrate some.
For Rutgers, it must first limit turnovers. AJ Surace showed promise in his first start last week; he also threw four interceptions. If the Scarlet Knights can limit mistakes and get the ball to wideout KJ Duff, it could make this one weirder than it should be.
The Pick: Rutgers (+23.5)
North Carolina (+3.5) at Clemson
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No matter what we've seen transpire over these first few weeks, the point spread is difficult to digest.
North Carolina, program turmoil and all, is 2-0 and just a small road underdog against Clemson, a team that was regularly competing for national championships not terribly long ago.
It feels, well, odd.
But given everything we've seen from the Tigers in two short lackluster weeks, it's not necessarily wrong.
Dabo Swinney has officially named Tait Reynolds the starter at quarterback for this matchup. The 19-year-old was thrust into the game against Georgia Southern when Christopher Vizzina was injured.
It'll be Reynolds' show for the foreseeable future, which promises to feature highs and certainly some lows. Going up against Bill Belichick, the man who used to create gameplans to slow down Peyton Manning, will be fascinating.
As for the Tar Heels, they come into this game at 2-0. While the offense will be a work in progress, QB Billy Edwards Jr. gives them plenty of experience and a chance.
A total in the low-to-mid 40s tells the story. This will be an ugly football game that UNC wins, which could spell a much different discussion at Clemson.
NC State (+3.5) at Vanderbilt
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For the first time this year—but certainly not the last—we're fading a team in consecutive weeks.
It's not personal, Vanderbilt. Just business.
Last week, we liked Delaware +20.5, and the Blue Hens made a game of it late to easily stay within that number. This week, we're back on North Carolina State, which clobbered Richmond after an ugly loss against Virginia in Week 0.
There's no sugarcoating it. That loss was grotesque in all areas. Quarterback CJ Bailey wasn't great, and neither was his defense. Rather than overreact, however, we're properly reacting.
As for Vanderbilt, things are a work in progress. The Commodores have played Austin Peay and Delaware, and they haven't looked particularly solid in either game. Freshman QB Jared Curtis looks like a future star, but he's about to see speed he's never seen in his entire life.
The Wolfpack burned us a few weeks ago, but we're not losing faith. Bailey showcases why he's a player worth watching with a (small) upset win.
The Pick: NC State (+3.5)
Arizona State (-5.5) vs. Kansas
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On the topic of teams that were featured in last week's selections, enter Arizona State.
If you were to look at the final score of last week's game against Texas A&M, you wouldn't care much for what you saw. Needless to say, getting 14.5 points, we weren't thrilled with the 48-20 final score.
The box score, however, tells a slightly different story. ASU outgained A&M by more than 100 yards, and the game was relatively close until late. Four Arizona State turnovers and two defensive touchdowns, however, ultimately flipped the script for the Aggies.
Needless to say, this was an agonizing watch for backers.
With that acknowledged, ASU did plenty of things well. The offense had plenty of good moments, and wideout Reed Harris is becoming a star before our eyes.
Kansas, meanwhile, had its own implosion against Missouri. QB Isaiah Marshall looked overwhelmed, and playing on the road against a capable team one week later might not help.
The Jayhawks also gave up nearly 500 yards on defense. Yikes.
Both teams come in licking their wounds, although Arizona State seems more positioned for a proper rebound.
As a reminder, we're playing in England. That variable will create some intrigue and unknowns, although it doesn't change how we feel.
The Pick: Arizona State (-5.5)
Other Games on the Card
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Texas State (-3) vs. North Texas
Given how dominant North Texas was against UNLV on Saturday, this line will surprise some. Don't let the 0-2 mark fool you, though. This Texas State team has both talent and offense, and it'll finally show in Week 3.
Colorado State (+17.5) vs. BYU
This is a bit of a sandwich game for BYU, which just delivered an impressive conference win over Arizona. Next week, the Cougars are back on the road at TCU. Before then, Colorado State is poised to make this a little too close for comfort.
Maryland (+3) vs. Virginia Tech
Things get real for James Franklin in a hurry. Sure, Virginia Tech is 2-0, and a revenge win over Old Dominion is by no means a bad win. A road trip to Maryland with a revamped roster, however, is a game that should cause some trouble.
Arizona (-34.5) vs. Northern Illinois
This is not a game that typically finds its way into these picks, although we've seen enough of Northern Illinois to make an exception. Plus, despite the loss to BYU last week, Arizona showed a ton. This will be very ugly.
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