MLB's Biggest Winners and Losers at the 3-Quarter Mark
The three-quarter mark of the 2015 MLB season is here, which means playoff races around the league are really starting to heat up.
At this point in the season, the vast majority of players and teams around the league could be pegged as a "winner" or a "loser" for one reason or another, so what follows is by no means an all-inclusive list.
It's simply meant to serve as a brief look at some of the biggest winners and losers of the 2015 season, whether it's an offseason move, deadline deal or simple matter of performance relative to expectations.
So take this list for what it is: a quick glimpse at some of the best and worst of the season so far. With plenty more to come on both sides of the spectrum between now and the end of the year, it should be an exciting final two months once again.
Loser: Boston Red Sox's Offseason Decisions
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In clear need of front-line arms after gutting their starting rotation the previous season, the Boston Red Sox instead went a different route in free agency.
Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez were two of the top bats on the market, and in an effort to create a juggernaut offense to offset their shortcomings on the mound, the team threw down a combined $183 million to sign the two players.
Let's take a look at how that's worked out in Year 1:
- Sandoval: .253 BA, .680 OPS, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 32 R, -0.7 WAR
- Ramirez: .262 BA, .748 OPS, 19 HR, 53 RBI, 56 R, -0.4 WAR
There are a grand total of 19 qualified players this year with a negative WAR, and you can count Sandoval and Ramirez among them. All the while, they're making a combined $37.35 million this year.
Then there's right-hander Rick Porcello, the man the team hoped could emerge as the staff ace after he was acquired in exchange for slugger Yoenis Cespedes.
He was handed a four-year, $82.5 million extension shortly after the start of the season, and suffice to say he's been far from an ace so far:
- Porcello: 20 GS, 5-11, 5.81 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, -0.5 WAR
Keeping to our previous theme, Porcello is one of just 13 qualified pitchers with a negative WAR, and that lack of value is costing the Red Sox $12.5 million.
Add it all up, and the Red Sox are spending $49.85 million on three guys who have been nearly two losses worse than replacement-level players, and those three guys are a big reason why the team is toiling in last place in the AL East.
Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates' Decision to Take a Chance on Jung-ho Kang
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The bulk of the offseason hype on the international market centered around Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas and Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda, but a wild card out of Korea has emerged as perhaps the biggest impact rookie of 2015.
His name is Jung-ho Kang, and his numbers for the Nexen Heroes of the KBO last year were impossible to ignore:
- 2014: 418 AB, .356/.459/.739, 36 2B, 40 HR, 117 RBI, 103 R
If someone put up those kinds of numbers in the majors during his age-27 season and then hit the free-agent market, he'd be looking at a contract north of $200 million.
However, no position player had ever made the jump from the notoriously hitter-friendly KBO to the majors, and there were more than a few skeptics.
"He doesn’t possess any plus tools, and may profile as a utility guy with good instincts and a little bit of pop. That still has value," Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors wrote of Kang prior to his signing.
In the end, Kang wound up landing a four-year, $11 million deal from the Pittsburgh Pirates that includes a $5.5 million option for 2019.
That may well be the best signing of the offseason.
After serving as a super utility guy and putting up decent numbers in limited playing time early on, injuries to Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer have seen Kang go from a luxury of sorts to a key contributor on one of the best teams in baseball.
Kang has spent most of the second half as the everyday shortstop and hitting either fourth or fifth in the lineup, and the overall numbers are impressive:
- 2015: 312 AB, .292/.366/.452, 19 2B, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 43 R, 3.6 WAR
Similar to the impact Harrison made a year ago, where would the Pirates be this season without Kang?
Loser: Oakland Athletics' Struggles in Close Games
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Let me preface this by saying that run differential can be deceiving at times.
A blowout win or loss tends to skew things over a small sample size, but over the course of a full season, the better a team's run differential, the better its record is going to be.
For the most part, that's held true this season. Thirteen of the 15 teams with a positive run differential have winning records and another in the Arizona Diamondbacks sits at one game under .500.
Then there's the Oakland Athletics.
With a plus-24 run differential on the year, they rank seventh in the American League in that category, so it would stand to reason that they'd at least be in the hunt for a playoff spot.
Instead, they find themselves in the AL West cellar and 14 games under .500 at 51-65 on the year.
A lot of areas can be pointed to as the cause for the Athletics' struggles this season, especially in the wake of an offseason roster purge by general manager Billy Beane.
The trade of Josh Donaldson has been a tough one for the fanbase to swallow, and outside of Sonny Gray and the recently traded Scott Kazmir, they struggled to find consistency in the rotation.
Then there's the bullpen, which ranks 26th in the league with a 4.23 ERA and has converted just 20-of-37 saves.
Whatever the reason may be, the team has proved completely incapable of winning close games here in 2015. Their 13-26 record in one-run games is the worst in baseball, and they've also gone 4-8 in extra innings.
There was an undeniable spark on the 2013 team when they made a surprise run to the playoffs on the strength of a 30-20 record in one-run games, and that's simply lacking here in 2015.
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Winner: Successful Rebuilds by the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros
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In 2012, the Houston Astros (55-107) and Chicago Cubs (61-101) had the two worst records in all of baseball.
In the years since, both clubs have undergone drastic organizational rebuilds, gutting the roster at the big league level and building up the farm system with impressive young talent in the process.
Both teams took a step forward last year and were expected to be even better this year, but they have exceeded expectations in making the leap from a losing record in 2014 to legitimate contention here in 2015.
Perhaps most importantly, these are teams built for long-term success.
Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell and Jorge Soler give the Cubs an enviable core of young position player talent, and they have money to spend to improve the pitching staff around Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta in the years to come.
For the Astros, shortstop Carlos Correa is quickly showing why he was worthy of the No. 1 overall pick, and he's joined the likes of Jose Altuve, George Springer, Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers to form an impressive group in Houston with more young talent on the way.
If the season ended today, the Astros would be AL West champions with a 1.5-game lead over the Los Angeles Angels.
Though they are in third place in the NL Central, the Cubs would also be in the playoff picture with a 4.5-game lead over the San Francisco Giants for the No. 2 wild-card spot.
It's fair to say the best is yet to come from both of these teams, but they're in a position to make some serious noise right now as a result of their patient rebuilding efforts.
Loser: Washington Nationals' Second-Half Skid, Overall Disappointing Performance
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After adding Max Scherzer to a starting rotation that already featured the likes of Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez, the Washington Nationals were being touted as a potential juggernaut and the odds-on favorites to win the 2015 World Series.
They stumbled out of the gates (7-13) while dealing with a handful of key injuries, but rattled off a stellar 20-5 stretch after that as things were falling into place for them to fulfill those lofty offseason expectations.
A 48-39 record at the All-Star break was good for a two-game lead over the upstart New York Mets in the NL East standings, but they've seen that lead disintegrate here in the middle of August.
They've gone 10-17 with a minus-14 run differential so far this month, and entering play Friday, they trailed the Mets by 4.5 games in the division standings.
Making matters even trickier in their hunt for a playoff spot, they actually trail by even more games in the wild-card chase, as they sit 7.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the No. 2 spot.
Offensively, the likes of Anthony Rendon, Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman have all fallen short of expectations and effectively canceled out a monster season by Bryce Harper.
On the mound, Stephen Strasburg has struggled all season and Doug Fister was recently demoted to the bullpen in favor of rookie Joe Ross. Scherzer has been great in his first year with the team, but the staff has been nowhere near as good as expected.
The season is far from over, and the Nationals are still capable of being a dangerous team in October if Strasburg figures things out alongside Scherzer and Zimmermann.
They're heading in the wrong direction right now, though, and those Mets don't appear to be going away.
Winner: Kansas City Royals' Shoring Things Up with Johnny Cueto
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The Kansas City Royals may have had the best record in baseball heading into the trade deadline, but there were some serious question marks surrounding their starting rotation.
Enter Johnny Cueto.
He'll be nothing more than a rental for this Royals team, as he's headed for a big payday in the offseason. However, the 29-year-old ace is exactly what Kansas City needed to make a run back to the World Series.
When James Shields departed in free agency this past offseason, the hope was that flame-throwing Yordano Ventura could continue his development and step into the role of staff ace ahead of veterans Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas, Edinson Volquez and up-and-coming lefty Danny Duffy.
Instead, the Opening Day rotation has performed as follows:
- Ventura: 18 GS, 7-7, 4.97 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.342 WHIP
- Volquez: 24 GS, 11-7, 3.27 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 1.260 WHIP
- Guthrie: 22 GS, 8-7, 5.63 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 1.548 WHIP
- Duffy: 17 GS, 5-5, 4.19 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 1.419 WHIP
- Vargas: 9 GS, 5-2, 3.98 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 1.349 WHIP
The Volquez signing has been big, but as a whole, this group has underperformed. Adding another starter became a must when Vargas was lost for the season to a UCL tear.
Now they have a legitimate ace they can lean on in Cueto, who has gone 1-1 with a 2.05 ERA in his first three starts with the team. That includes a four-hit shutout of the Detroit Tigers his last time out.
In fact, since the beginning of July, he's gone 4-2 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in eight starts, as he's really hitting his stride here when it matters most.
Loser: A.J. Preller's Aggressive Offseason and Questionable Deadline
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You have to hand it to A.J. Preller, the new San Diego Padres general manager did everything he could to put a winning team on the field in 2015.
A bevy of offseason trades and free-agent signings brought a completely new look to the roster with the additions of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks, Shawn Kelley, Brandon Maurer and Clint Barmes.
Perhaps even more impressive was the fact that Preller managed to hang on to highly-regarded youngsters Austin Hedges and Hunter Renfroe in the process, though the Padres did give up a number of top prospects.
However, things did not go according to plan, and when the trade deadline rolled around, the team looked like a clear seller at 50-53 overall and in fourth place in the NL West.
At the very least, upcoming free agents like Upton, Ian Kennedy and Will Venable, along with high-priced relievers Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit, looked like obvious trade chips. When the dust settled, the only move the team made was to add lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski.
So why didn't they sell more aggressively?
"They never knew what they really wanted," one executive told Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.
"They just couldn't deal with the fact that they'd built up their team last winter and it didn't work and they couldn't wave the white flag," was another theory proposed to Stark.
Whatever the reason, the Padres are now in a tough spot where they've severely drained the farm system. But at the same time, they don't appear to have what it takes to contend either.
There is still a lot of talent on the roster for 2016, and a reversal of fortunes next year is not out of the question, but it's been a disappointing and perhaps poorly handled season so far for the Friars.
Winner: St. Louis Cardinals' Continued Ability to Overcome Injuries
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Most of you know by now that I'm a Chicago Cubs fan, born and raised, so I was taught from a very young age to hate the St. Louis Cardinals.
That being said, the baseball fan in me can't help but have the utmost respect for "The Cardinal Way," or whatever it is you want to call the organization's uncanny ability to develop talent, deal with key injuries and sustain success.
They have racked up an impressive 11 postseason appearances in the past 15 years, and they've shown no signs of slowing down here in 2015, as they're on pace for 104 wins.
Not many teams could deal with losing a pitcher the caliber of Adam Wainwright, yet here the Cardinals are, putting together a historically good season with an MLB-best 2.81 ERA from their starters.
The bullpen said goodbye to All-Star Pat Neshek and lost his expected replacement Jordan Walden just after the start of the season, yet here they are with an MLB-best 2.26 ERA from their relief core.
The offense has been without cleanup hitter Matt Adams and clutch machine Matt Holliday (.400 BA with runners in scoring position) for much of the year, yet rookies Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty have picked up the slack as the "next man up" mentality continues to reign.
Will all of that add up to a World Series title?
Who knows, but the Cardinals consistently put a team on the field capable of contending for a title, and that's something not many franchises can say with so much parity in today's game.
Loser: Seattle Mariners' Inability to Build on Last Season
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In our preseason writer's poll here at Bleacher Report, 20 of the 32 writers that participated picked the Seattle Mariners to win the AL pennant.
We weren't the only sports outlet high on the M's heading into 2015, either. Far from it.
"Prepare for playoff baseball in Seattle," read Grantland's American League West preview prior to Opening Day.
Over at CBS Sports, four of their five MLB writers picked the Mariners to win the AL West title, and three had them advancing to the World Series.
At ESPN, 88 writers were surveyed and 54 of them picked Seattle to win the AL West. Of the 15 experts highlighted in the article, 10 of them picked the Mariners to win the AL pennant and one picked them to win the World Series.
It's easy to see why so many people had such lofty expectations for this team, after they fell just one win short of reaching the playoffs a year ago.
Slugger Nelson Cruz was added to a below-average offensive attack that desperately needed a right-handed power bat, young pitchers Taijuan Walker and James Paxton looked poised to take a step forward alongside Felix Hernandez in the rotation and what was baseball's best bullpen in 2014 returned essentially intact.
Instead, they find themselves in fourth place in the AL West, eight games back in the division and 6.5 games out of a wild-card spot with a 54-61 record on the year.
A thoroughly disappointing step back for a team that has not reached the playoffs since their 116-win season in 2001.
Winner: Toronto Blue Jays' All-In Deadline Approach
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The Toronto Blue Jays currently have the longest playoff drought of any team in all four major sports, with their last trip to the postseason coming back in 1993, when they won the World Series.
Despite boasting the league's best offense, the Jays kicked off a flurry of deadline moves by pulling off a blockbuster deal for Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.
That proved to be just the tip of the iceberg, as a few days later, the team completed another huge trade to acquire the front-line arm they desperately needed in David Price.
While those two stars grabbed the headlines, and rightfully so, the team also picked up some bullpen help in veterans LaTroy Hawkins and Mark Lowe, a left field upgrade in speedy Ben Revere and some bench depth in Cliff Pennington.
Clearly a better team on paper, the additions have translated to results on the field, as the team has gone 11-1 here in August, including a current 11-game winning streak.
The addition of Price has seemingly lifted the entire rotation, as R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Marco Estrada have all thrown the ball better of late as well.
Offensively, the team looks to be nothing short of a juggernaut, averaging an impressive 5.30 runs per game, over a half-run better than the next-highest-scoring team.
The prospect of David Price taking the ball in a one-game wild-card start is a scary one for the rest of the American League. But at this point, the Blue Jays look to have overtaken the New York Yankees as the best team in the AL East and clearly have their sights now set on a division title.
There's little doubt the Blue Jays have been the best team in the league here in August. The question is whether they can keep this tremendous momentum rolling into September and on into the playoffs.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.
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