MLB Playoff Picture: What Could Hold Each Team Back in October
The only good part about the summer nearing its end is that playoff baseball is on its way.
With two wild-card slots and parity throughout the game, an astonishing number of teams are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. This made things tricky at the trade deadline because teams were caught between being buyers and sellers, but it should make for a lot of fun down the stretch.
Which teams are true contenders, and which are pretenders? The lack of baseball superpowers has teams who are hovering around .500 talking about playing October baseball. They can't all be for real, can they?
Here's a look at every team that is currently on the bubble of the playoffs as well as what each one's weakness moving forward could be.
Baltimore Orioles
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The Orioles are currently two games behind the Los Angeles Angels for the second wild card, but they are almost stuck in no-man's land as a franchise. They are one of the teams that should have sold at the deadline but decided to go for it just because there weren't too many other teams in front of them.
As a team, Baltimore is severely flawed.
It has a young star in 23-year-old Manny Machado, an All-Star outfielder in Adam Jones and a big power bat in the middle of the order in Chris Davis. Outside of that, however, there's not much to love.
As a team, the Orioles rank No. 20 in the league with a .308 on-base percentage. Their inability to string together hits and manufacture runs will likely be an issue if they make it to October.
Additionally, they failed to improve their starting rotation in the offseason and at the trade deadline.
They currently have no 10-game winner or a starter you would consider an ace.
Their top four starters (Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez) are just 32-28 this season, and their starting pitchers have totaled a 4.30 ERA, the fifth-worst mark in the American League.
The Orioles are not a team built for postseason success.
Chicago Cubs
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If the Cubs have proved anything, it's that the brain trust of manager Joe Maddon and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein is sensational.
With a great blend of youth and veteran leadership, the Cubs look poised for an October run this season for the first time since 2008.
No longer do the Chicago faithful have to only get worked up about Lou Malnati's deep dish pizza or the infamous "Bean." Playoff baseball could be returning to Wrigley Field.
It's an exciting time in Wrigleyville, as the Cubs currently have a 3.5-game lead over the San Francisco Giants for the second wild card. If the season were to end today, experienced postseason ace Jon Lester would likely take the ball for the Cubbies in a one-game playoff against the division-rival Pittsburgh Pirates.
If the Cubs are flawed in one area, it's up the middle, as shortstop Starlin Castro and rookie Addison Russell have both underperformed thus far.
Castro is the more frustrating out of the two. He is set to continue a scary trend of decreasing hits in each season following his breakout 2011 season in which he had 207 hits.
A three-time All-Star, the talented Castro should not be hitting .235 and forcing Maddon to have to play Chris Coghlan at second base.
Despite the struggles of the double-play duo, the potential is still there.
Castro has proved he can hit at the big league level, and Russell has the skills to become one of the game's premier middle infielders in due time, even though he is currently a .241 hitter who bats behind the pitcher each night.
Regardless, the Cubs continue to churn out wins and don't appear to be falling out of the playoff picture.
Houston Astros
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The Houston Astros are a strange team but one that is currently in the lead in the American League West.
Deals for Scott Kazmir and Carlos Gomez at the trade deadline show that the Astros are rewarding their fans after a long rebuild and some tough years. Those same moves also pushed them from being a good story to being a legitimate contender in the American League.
As currently constructed, the Astros have the most strikeouts and most steals in the AL. They're waiting on George Springer to return from the disabled list to join an already crowded outfield that features Gomez, Colby Rasmus, Preston Tucker and Jake Marisnick.
There's no doubt that the Astros can put crooked numbers on the scoreboard and can even steal bags to get into scoring position to create runs. Although they are a power team at heart, they aren't necessarily a one-dimensional offense. They might need a solution to first baseman Chris Carter, however.
Carter has been the biggest hit-or-miss player in a lineup essentially filled with them, with 17 of his 58 hits going over the fence. He's hitting just .181 this season and may start losing more at-bats for the Astros, who have suddenly lost seven of their last eight games.
With reinforcements to both the starting rotation and bullpen, the team batting average and Carter's inability to get hits are their only concerns.
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Kansas City Royals
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The Kansas City Royals are the defending American League champions and currently have the best record in the league at 68-44. What could possibly go wrong?
The acquisition of Johnny Cueto was huge and gives the Royals a dominant ace to hand the ball to for the first game of a playoff series. The issue is who gets the ball in the consequent games.
Can the Royals really trust Yordano Ventura or Edinson Volquez in a short series? I don't think so, especially not in a series against a team that mashes like the Toronto Blue Jays.
Kansas City's 4.29 starter's ERA this season ranks No. 10 in the American League. The number should improve slightly with Cueto now in the mix, but Ventura's 4.97 ERA isn't helping anyone.
Another issue in the postseason could be the lineup's lack of power.
While Ben Zobrist is the perfect fit for Kansas City, as he can play any position besides pitcher and catcher, the Royals still lack a big power bat in the middle of the order.
Their total of 89 home runs this season ranks No. 26 in baseball.
They got by last year by stealing bases, getting timely hits and having a rock-solid bullpen.
The Toronto Blue Jays have become a game-changer in the American League, however. It appears as if nobody can slow them down, and it is unlikely that the Royals would be able to beat them with their small-ball technique.
Of course, the Royals have good hitters in Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer, among others. If they could somehow find a power hitter on waivers, their lineup would be that much more threatening to other teams in the league.
Their lineup will look much better when Alex Gordon returns from the disabled list and Zobrist slides over to second base, however.
Los Angeles Angels
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The Los Angeles Angels are hanging on to the second wild-card spot, and my gut tells me they'll fend off their adversaries from now until season's end.
All-Star outfielder Mike Trout is having another MVP-worthy season, but there's a question as to whether he has enough help in the lineup.
Albert Pujols has had a tremendous season which has put him in consideration for Comeback Player of the Year honors, but he has gotten off to a slow start in the second half. Outfielder Kole Calhoun has finally picked up the pace in front of Trout and Pujols, hitting .301 with nine home runs since July 1.
Outside of these three players, however, the rest of the Angels lineup is mediocre at best.
A broken finger has sidelined third baseman David Freese since July 22, and his return is not imminent, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.
In a competent lineup with the proper table-setters, Trout would have more than 69 RBI to accompany his 33 home runs. While the Angels were rumored to be in the mix to land a big-hitting outfielder at the trade deadline, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, they only managed to get Shane Victorino, and it could cost them.
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Aces Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke have taken this team on their backs and carried it to the top of the National League West.
It turns out that losing Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon actually does take a toll on a lineup. The Dodgers are lucky that Adrian Gonzalez is hitting as usual and they are getting a career year from Justin Turner, although he is currently on the disabled list.
Young outfielders Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig have largely been disasters this season, although they are currently trending in opposite directions. Pederson is hitting .178 since the All-Star break, while Puig tied a career-high with five RBI on Tuesday night after being placed on waivers the week before, per ESPN's Jayson Stark.
I've been thinking for the last month about why the Dodgers haven't called up shortstop prospect Corey Seager despite his .299/14/59 slash line. I can't be the only one who notices Jimmy Rollins is done, right?
The pitching should be fine for the Dodgers in October, as long as Kershaw doesn't have to face the St. Louis Cardinals. Kershaw has posted an 0-4 record and 7.15 ERA against the Cardinals in his last four postseason starts.
Still, the main concern for the Dodgers will be figuring out whom they will be getting consistent hits from outside of Gonzalez and Turner. And when Turner is your second-best hitter heading into the postseason, that's something to worry about in itself.
New York Mets
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The narrative in New York baseball has shifted so drastically in the last few weeks that Yankees fans are trying to see how they look wearing blue and orange.
If this article were written two weeks ago, it would have been endless paragraphs bashing the Mets' inept and disgraceful offense. But, alas, general manager Sandy Alderson awoke from his long slumber and brought some major league talent into the lineup.
With Yoenis Cespedes in the fold, Travis d'Arnaud off the disabled list and David Wright on the mend, the Mets are actually scary. Their lineup doesn't consist of 66 percent dead weight anymore, and their starting pitching is flat-out ridiculous.
I don't have to go into detail about how excellent Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard have been or how any other team in baseball would kill to have one of them, let alone all three. I also don't have to mention that the idea of a hard-throwing lefty in between those three right-handed monsters (enter Steven Matz) is actually unfair.
Remarkably, this is the status of the 2015 Mets.
To say that there is a concern with the team is nitpicking, as it seems as if it has depth at all positions to complement its great rotation.
It's possible starter Bartolo Colon would be a problem, but my guess is that he won't make the postseason roster and may actually get bumped from the rotation once Matz returns.
Instead, I'll shift focus to closer Jeurys Familia, who has looked a lot more like former Mets Francisco Rodriguez and Armando Benitez of late.
Nothing has come easy for Familia in recent weeks, as he had a 4.61 ERA in July, and he looks overworked. Tyler Clippard has proved he can be a reliable closer, but manager Terry Collins continues to dig into the Familia well.
In games where Familia has no rest, opponents are hitting .233 with a .313 on-base percentage.
It might not seem like those are good numbers, but compared to his other splits, they are testimony that Familia is more hittable when overused. He has thrown 20.1 innings this season with zero days of rest, which is almost twice as more than in any other situation.
Familia has bounced back in August, converting all four save opportunities in the month. His status is something to watch moving forward, however.
New York Yankees
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The concern is simple for the Yankees, who have no reliable starting pitcher to turn to.
Despite making a total of $45 million this season, Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia have combined to throw just 19 quality starts in 37 total starts, per Sporting Charts. Additionally, they have only 12 wins.
Michael Pineda is on the disabled list, Ivan Nova is coming off Tommy John surgery and Nathan Eovaldi is consistently erratic.
Despite their tremendous bullpen, which features Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller at the back end, starting pitching will likely be the downfall of the 2015 Yankees.
The offense has sputtered of late, but should bounce back. Tremendous comeback seasons by Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira have buoyed the Yankees, who have scored the second most runs in baseball.
The Yankees were swept by the Blue Jays over the weekend and now hold just a half-game lead over their division counterparts. If it doesn't get its act together, New York might be on the outside looking in this postseason yet again.
Pittsburgh Pirates
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Did anyone have A.J. Burnett as his or her choice in the "Pirates 2015 X-factor" pool? I didn't think so.
Burnett and Pittsburgh have become quite the combination, as the 38-year-old followed up an 18-loss season with his first-ever All-Star appearance.
He's currently on the disabled list with a flexor strain and is expected to miss four weeks. The Pirates seem to have avoided the worst-case scenario, but Burnett's status is something to watch.
If Burnett misses any additional time, the burden on the arms of Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano will become heavier.
Cole's 14 wins are tied for the MLB lead with the Seattle Mariners' Felix Hernandez, but there is concern that Cole will begin to fade down the stretch. He has already thrown a career-high 143 innings, which is always a concern with power pitchers in this Tommy John obsessed era of baseball.
Although Cole has shown no signs of slowing down and Liriano has been extremely consistent in three years in Pittsburgh, the Pirates will need Burnett as their third starter heading into the postseason.
San Francisco Giants
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Madison Bumgarner proved last postseason that he could do it all on his own, and he might need to do it again this October.
The situation isn't ideal, but the Giants are struggling to find a No. 2 starter behind MadBum.
They thought they found a solution at the trade deadline, acquiring Mike Leake from the Cincinnati Reds, but he has since been placed on the disabled list with a hamstring strain.
Now the Giants are back to square one.
Matt Cain has been brutal upon his return this season, pitching to a 5.59 ERA in seven starts. The 30-year-old has had an ERA of four or above in three straight seasons, including 2015, meaning that there's more to his slump than just a handful of games over the last few weeks.
Right now, San Francisco's best option behind Bumgarner is rookie Chris Heston, who has been a revelation this season.
Although he may think he can pitch every postseason game, the sad reality is that Bumgarner cannot. And if the Giants, who are 3.5 games out of the second wild-card spot, want to catch the Cubs, they will need to pitch better down the stretch.
St. Louis Cardinals
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The St. Louis Cardinals are the most incredible team in baseball. Their MLB-leading 72-40 record is impressive, but it's even more sensational when you look into the circumstances a little more.
They lost ace Adam Wainwright for the season after just four starts yet still lead baseball with a 2.61 ERA. That mark is thanks in large part to Carlos Martinez, who is 12-4 with a 2.62 ERA in his first full season as a starter.
This season continues a trend of the Cardinals retooling through their own farm system, bringing up one impact player after the next. Their style has revolutionized the way baseball organizations are run, as the days of free-agent splurging and 10-year contracts seem to be behind most teams, most notably the blank-check Yankees.
The reality is that the Cardinals' rotation is five men deep, with the "worst" mark being Michael Wacha's 2.92 ERA.
The only thing that the Cardinals have to worry about is health, even though they casually replace every departed player with someone who fills in admirably in his place. At some point you have to wonder whether that will catch up with St. Louis, but for now, it is the strongest team in baseball even without a star player on the roster.
Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays have scored 68 more runs than anyone else in baseball, have won nine straight games and have climbed to within a half game of the division-leading Yankees.
If they are in the Wild Card Game, they will be able to hand the ball to one of baseball's greatest lefties in David Price, and if they make the playoffs, they will easily have the best lineup in the postseason.
Toronto has taken a win-now stance and has gone all-in. With its chips on the table and a pretty good hand to play, it has become the most feared team in the American League.
Opposing pitchers can't slow down the Blue Jays. The only thing that can is their own.
Behind David Price, they have a duo of mediocre veterans in the form of R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, as well as an underperforming prospect in Drew Hutchison.
Marco Estrada has been impressive in his first year in Toronto after seven seasons in the National League and would likely make some starts in the postseason if the season ended today. He currently owns a career-best 3.21 ERA.
Would a postseason rotation of Price, Buehrle and Estrada be the worst? No, but it certainly isn't ideal.
The Blue Jays offense would likely make up for any issues with the starters, but pitching usually wins in the playoffs. It wouldn't hurt if the Blue Jays could somehow find themselves another starter on waivers.
Washington Nationals
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The Washington Nationals have no one else to blame for the New York Mets overtaking them in the division besides themselves.
The Nats couldn't get out of their own way, enduring long-term injuries to Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and Denard Span.
Their otherworldly starting rotation, which was considered baseball's best after they signed Max Scherzer, has underperformed.
In short, the Nationals let the Mets hang around long enough to be players at the trade deadline. Now, there's no convincing evidence that says they'll turn it into gear all of a sudden and run away with the division as they were initially supposed to.
If the Nationals make the playoffs, nobody is going to want to face Scherzer, Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann in a short series. They have even bolstered their bullpen by adding closer Jonathan Papelbon and pushing Drew Storen to the eighth inning.
The issue is that the Nats are currently 5.5 games out of the second wild-card spot, meaning that if they don't rally and win the division, they likely won't be playing in October.
The only reason the Nationals are still relevant is thanks to Bryce Harper's MVP-caliber season, which carried the lineup for most of the season.
Werth and Zimmerman will be the downfall of the Nationals down the stretch. Although they are both currently healthy, recent history has shown that they can't be counted on to play to the backs of their baseball cards anymore.
For the season, Werth and Zimmerman are hitting .192 and .232, respectively. The lack of impact bats around Harper will do the Nationals in.
Daniel Ferrara is a featured columnist at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter for analysis and to stay in touch.
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