5 MLB Teams Primed For 2nd-Half Surge into 2026 Playoffs

Major League Baseball's All-Star Break is in the rearview mirror, which means it's time to really hone in on the race for the six postseason spots in each league.

As things stand currently, this is what the AL and NL playoff pictures would look like:

AL: 1. Tampa Bay Rays 2. Chicago White Sox 3. Texas Rangers 4. New York Yankees 5. Cleveland Guardians 6. Boston Red Sox

NL: 1. Los Angeles Dodgers 2. Milwaukee Brewers 3. Atlanta Braves 4. Chicago Cubs 5. Philadelphia Phillies 6. St. Louis Cardinals/Miami Marlins tied

With the current playoff picture acknowledged, here are five MLB teams' primed for second-half surges that will put them into the 2026 postseason.

Boston Red Sox

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Willson Contreras declared during the All-Star Break that he doesn't want to be traded, and is hoping to finish his career in Boston.

It turns out, the Red Sox might be buyers before the Aug. 3 trade deadline, after looking like one of the sport's most obvious sellers for much of the season. Contreras and Sonny Gray both have no-trade clauses, and if Boston is in the postseason mix, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow probably isn't going to trade future Hall of Fame reliever Aroldis Chapman.

At the time of publication, the Red Sox are in the midst of an 12-game winning streak, with interim manager Chad Tracy's club now above .500. In what's one of the weaker American League crops in recent seasons, that's enough for Boston to be in control of the final wild-card spot in the junior circuit.

Contreras (.925 OPS), Gray (2.54 ERA) and Ranger Suárez (3.15 ERA, but currently on the IL) have all had strong first seasons in Boston. Not only is Suárez going to return from the IL, but so are Connelly Early (left elbow inflammation), Roman Anthony (right wring finger sprain) and Trevor Story (sports hernia surgery). Plus, imagine what this team would look like if former All-Star Jarren Duran—who is batting just .193—returns to form.

Assuming the Red Sox are buying in some form before the trade deadline, they could stand to add another high-leverage reliever to pair with the duo of Chapman and Garrett Whitlock. But overall, it's pretty crazy how much this 12-game stretch has not only turned this season around, but also potentially changed the organization's long-term trajectory.

Pittsburgh Pirates

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With a plus-50 run differential, the Pirates should probably be even better than the 51-47 record they have. Perhaps they will be in the second half.

Amazingly, the Pirates are second in MLB in runs scored, a remarkable improvement after the Buccos finished dead-last in runs scored in 2025. General manager Ben Cherington has probably taken himself off the hot seat with the offseason additions of Brandon Lowe (21 home runs) and Ryan O'Hearn (.838 OPS).

Marcell Ozuna's one-year, $12 million deal has been a dud, as the three-time All-Star has just a .623 OPS. Meanwhile, both Konnor Griffin (torn left ring finger tendon) and Oneil Cruz (metacarpal fractures) are on the IL, but each is expected to return before the season ends.

Coming into the season, the Pirates were expected to have one of baseball's top starting rotations. That hasn't necessarilly materialized to this point, though a mixture of advanced numbers and juice lead you to believe better results are coming:

• Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes has a 3.57 ERA over his first 20 starts of the season, but his 2.72 expected ERA and 2.88 FIP indicate positive regression could be on the way.
• Braxton Ashcraft was a first-time All-Star, and probably Pittsburgh's best starter in the first half, as he went 9-3 with a 3.49 ERA.
• Bubba Chandler's league-leading 55 walks are a major reason his ERA sits at 4.77, but man, he has a live arm. His average fastball is 98.5 mph. If he finds control, he has All-Star potential.
• Jared Jones has a 4.37 ERA to show for his first eight starts back from an internal brace procedure on his right elbow. Prior to the injury, Jones looked like a potentially building block for the Pirates, and his 3.61 expected ERA and 3.67 FIP lead you to believe he's going to get better results the further he moves away from his injury.

The ceiling of this starting rotation is high. If Don Kelly's squad can get improved results from their starting rotation and Cherington makes a major addition to the bullpen, the Pirates could return to the postseason for the first time since 2015.

Seattle Mariners

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Are the Mariners going to "surge" into the playoffs? Who knows. But they are within striking distance of the AL West-leading Rangers, who have a minus-29 run differential. The M's are the only team in the division with a positive run differential, and still the best bet to win the AL West.

With an .829 OPS, Randy Arozarena is having a tremendous contract season. There's a slew of other All-Star-caliber players on this roster, at least some of whom should produce at higher levels down the stretch:

• Cal Raleigh was probably never going to match his 60-homer season from 2025. But it's fair to say he'll improve pretty significantly from the .169 batting average and .581 OPS he posted in the first half of 2026.
• Josh Naylor posted an .831 OPS after being traded to the Mariners last season, earning him a five-year, $92.5 million deal. He currently has a .671 OPS, a mark it's reasonable to think he'll improve.
• Perhaps at 33, Luis Castillo's 4.93 ERA indicates that he's hitting a wall. Then again, the three-time All-Star had a 3.50 ERA across 95 starts between 2023 and 2025.
• Bryan Woo was an All-Star last season, but has pitched to a disappointing 4.23 ERA in 18 starts. However, both his 3.51 expected ERA and 3.05 FIP suggest he's been very unlucky so far in 2026.
• Andrés Muñoz had a brutal first half, which saw him blow five save attempts. However, he was one of baseball's most dominant relievers from 2022-2025, and has converted all six of his most recent save attempts.

It's not difficult to imagine the Mariners playing well enough in the second half that they enter the postseason looking like a real threat to emerge from a wide-open AL.

Atlanta Braves

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For the first two-plus months of the 2026 season, the Braves were as good as any team in baseball. But a 9-14 month of June allowed the Philadelphia Phillies back into the picture in the NL East.

Whether the Braves hold on to win the division or wind up as a wild-card representative, there's still a lot to like about Walt Weiss' club. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Drake Baldwin, Chris Sale and Raisel Iglesias were all All-Stars, and there's still some room for internal improvement in Atlanta:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. is currently on a rehab assignment as he tries to return from a left hamstring strain.
• Sean Murphy (fractured left finger) is expected to return in the second half, not that the Braves are exactly struggling at catcher. However, there's a scenario where both him and Baldwin could be in the lineup at the same time, with one serving as DH.
• Spencer Schwellenbach—who seemed to be a budding ace the last two seasons—is going to return from the arthroscopic elbow surgery he had in Spring Training, a potentially major boon to the starting rotation.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos would surely like to add a right-handed hitting outfielder—although so would just about every contender—and a major rotation upgrade shouldn't be ruled out. As is, though, the Braves have a pretty strong roster, particularly if some of their injured players get healthy.

Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles may not have enough starting pitching to ultimately be a playoff team, but it's become easier recently to see a path for them getting into the postseason.

Pete Alonso had a monster June, driving in 23 runs. Taylor Ward has a .982 OPS in July, which will mean he's either a major part in the O's staying in contention, or becomes one of the most coveted trade chips. Kyle Bradish was rewarded with a five-year, $90 million contract extension Saturday. Trevor Rogers has rebounded from a nightmarish start to post a 1.75 ERA across his last seven starts. There are things to like.

At the same time, there are still issues in Baltimore. The biggest is probably that Gunnar Henderson—who seemed like a possible AL MVP candidate entering the season—has a .682 OPS. Adley Rutschman has cooled off since a slow start. Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday have mostly been non-factors this season. Many of the pieces we thought would make the Orioles one of the most dominant teams of the second half of this decade have either not reached their potential, or stalled out to some degree.

Again, though, the AL is very weak. Right now, both the White Sox (AL Central leaders) and Guardians (second wild-card spot) are in playoff positions. We're going to guess that only one of those teams reaches the postseason, which could crack the door open for an Orioles lineup that's very talented on paper to grab the final wild-card spot in the AL. (The trade deadline would be a lot more fun if the Orioles faded, however.)