Projecting ETA to The Show For Top 2026 MLB Draft Picks
After Day 1 of the 2026 MLB Draft on Saturday, the road to "The Show" has already begun for 135 former college and high school players. And some have straighter, quicker routes than the others.
So, let's estimate major league ETAs for the eight first-round draft picks who should move the fastest.
It should surprise nobody that this list is entirely populated by college talent. Every now and then, a Konnor Griffin comes along and makes a warp-speed jump from high school to the majors. For the most part, though, players coming out of high school need two or three years in the minors.
As for why these eight college players in particular are different from the rest, the short version is that they just have the goods. For the longer version, read on.
8. C Vahn Lackey, Minnesota Twins
1 of 8
Age: 21
School: Georgia Tech
Pick: Round 1, Pick 3
Why He Can Move Quickly
This might actually be a reach. Even college catchers typically take years to get to the big leagues, which speaks to how much more homework the position comes with. The defensive side alone might as well require a master's degree.
But if anyone can be an exception to the rule, why not Vahn Lackey? Dude showed off his plus-plus bat with a .397/.519/.772 slash line for the Yellow Jackets this year. There also isn't any doubt that he can stick behind the plate, where he's surprisingly athletic with a strong arm.
Why He'll Be Needed Quickly
The Twins have Ryan Jeffers in the squat now, but that could change as soon (or sooner) as the August 3 trade deadline. Even if it doesn't, he's a free agent at the end of the year.
Either Lackey or Eduardo Tait stands to be Minnesota's catcher of the future, and the latter is only 19 and having a rough year at High-A. As soon as Lackey gets going, he should have the inside track.
ETA: Early 2028
7. RHP Liam Peterson, Cleveland Guardians
2 of 8
Age: 21
School: Florida
Pick: Round 1, Pick 19
Why He Can Move Quickly
Liam Peterson pitched a total of 216.2 innings for Florida over three seasons, and he walked 4.7 batters per nine innings while otherwise posting a 5.03 ERA. Not exactly "can't-miss" numbers for a college arm.
But then, this is a 6'5", 225-pound pitcher with four pitches, including a plus fastball and plus slider. There might only be one tweak standing between him and a total carve-up of the competition he's about to face in the minors.
Why He'll Be Needed Quickly
There's also, of course, the Guardians element of all this. Save for maybe the Seattle Mariners, nobody develops pitchers like they do. Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Parker Messick are living proof of it.
So if there is a tweak to be made with Peterson, they should be able to make it. And since there is an opening for an impact arm behind the front three in their rotation, there won't be any point in the Guardians holding him back once he's ready.
ETA: Early 2028
6. OF Logan Hughes, Houston Astros
3 of 8
Age: 21
School: Texas Tech
Pick: Round 1, Pick 17
Why He Can Move Quickly
Logan Hughes wasn't seen as a top-20 talent coming into the draft, so there might as well have been an audible gasp when the Astros took him at No. 17. But in context of the draft's theme of prizing skilled hitters, it makes more sense a day later.
Hughes hit .375 with a .510 OBP with the Red Raiders this year, with just 33 strikeouts against 55 walks. Factoring in that he also slugged .735, the whole offensive profile doesn't seem to be in for much of an adjustment period in the pros.
Why He'll Be Needed Quickly
The real catch with Hughes is that he's a bat-only prospect with running, fielding and throwing limitations. If he's going to stick in the outfield, it'll have to be in left field and nowhere else.
But that may well be the point for Houston. They have used 10 different players in left field this year, and their whole outfield has spent the season crying out for a useful left-handed bat. Hopefully, Hughes will be that guy sooner rather than later.
ETA: Late 2027
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5. 2B Chris Hacopian, Washington Nationals
4 of 8
Age: 21
School: Texas A&M
Pick: Round 1, Pick 11
Why He Can Move Quickly
It was around this point in the draft when the aforementioned run on contact hitters really started to become apparent. And according to some analysts, Chris Hacopian was in the running as the best pure hitter in the class before the Nationals nabbed him.
Hacopian was more tested in the SEC than he had been in the Big Ten with Maryland, and he had lower back issues to boot. Yet he still came out of 2026 with a .319 average and .405 OBP, with 21 walks against 25 strikeouts.
Why He'll Be Needed Quickly
The hard part for the Nats will be figuring out where to play Hacopian. He played third base and shortstop in college before shifting to second base, and some see him as best fitting in left field.
If he does stay at second base, though, he's a potential solution at a spot that has produced a league-low .576 OPS this season. And one generally trusts the Nats with his bat, as Paul Toboni needed just one season to transform the club's young offense into a legitimate wrecking ball.
ETA: Late 2027
4. OF Derek Curiel, Pittsburgh Pirates
5 of 8
Age: 21
School: LSU
Pick: Round 1, Pick 5
Why He Can Move Quickly
According to Carlos Callazo of Baseball America, Derek Curiel is another hitter whose bat was under consideration for best in class. And it must be good, as No. 5 picks don't normally have such questionable power profiles.
Curiel only hit 13 home runs in 126 games with LSU, so his appeal really is all tied up in his .349 average and .452 OBP from his college days. It's a pretty left-handed stroke, too, which only makes it easier to apply the Christian Yelich comp.
Why He'll Be Needed Quickly
The Pirates have already built a solid contender on homegrown talent, yet they need to move fast to maximize their window. Konnor Griffin is in for the long haul, but Paul Skenes is not.
In addition to the bat for the task, Curiel also has the glove. He's generally seen as a good bat to stick in center field, and could thus provide an ideal excuse to change Oneil Cruz's position yet again.
ETA: Mid 2027
3. RHP Jackson Flora, San Francisco Giants
6 of 8
Age: 21
School: UC Santa Barbara
Pick: Round 1, Pick 4
Why He Can Move Quickly
Jackson Flora was the first pitcher off the board on Saturday for a reason. He's basically a dream pitcher prospect, standing at 6'5", 205 pounds with three plus pitches and strong control.
Such things were very much on display in his final season with the Gauchos. He made 16 starts and pitched to a 1.06 ERA, with 101 more strikeouts than walks. He also allowed just three home runs, no small feat opposite hitters wielding aluminum bats.
Why He'll Be Needed Quickly
Logan Webb is the Giants' ace for now and for years to come, and Landen Roupp has emerged as a strong supporting character. Other than those two, however, the future of the rotation looks pretty bleak.
This is where Flora is meant to come in, and Buster Posey can hope that his trajectory mirrors that of his former battery mate, Tim Lincecum. "Big Time Timmy Jim" was the No. 10 pick in the 2006 draft and in the majors by the following May.
ETA: Mid 2027
2. OF Drew Burress, Athletics
7 of 8
Age: 21
School: Georgia Tech
Pick: Round 1, Pick 8
Why He Can Move Quickly
What we have here is a bit of a plot twist. Contrary to guys like Vahn Lackey, Logan Hughes, Chris Hacopian and Derek Curiel, Drew Burress tends to get better marks for his power than for his hit tool.
Said hit tool is hardly bad, however. Burress played in 179 total games with the Yellow Jackets and struck out 38 fewer times than he walked as he hit .357 with a .484 OBP. His profile can be easily summed up as "Dude who rakes."
Why He'll Be Needed Quickly
The A's aggressively promoting a first-round hitter from the college ranks? Yeah, that scans. Jacob Wilson made it to the big leagues a year after he was drafted in 2023, and Nick Kurtz didn't even need a year after he was drafted in 2024.
Burress more or less fits their mold, and he has added benefits of being a good athlete who projects well as a right fielder. That was meant to be Lawrence Butler's long-term home, but his deterioration has opened the door for someone else.
ETA: Early 2027
1. SS Roch Cholowsky, Chicago White Sox
8 of 8
Age: 21
School: UCLA
Pick: Round 1, Pick 1
Why He Can Move Quickly
The White Sox wouldn't have been wrong to draft Grady Emerson with the No. 1 pick, but Roch Cholowsky was ultimately the safer pick. It's just hard to go wrong with shortstops with college careers as decorated as his.
He slashed .329/.448/.624 in three seasons with the Bruins, with 44 home runs in 126 games over the last two. And despite below-average speed, the thinking is that he's a no-brainer to stick at shortstop in the pros.
Why He'll Be Needed Quickly
The last college middle infielder to go No. 1 in the draft was Travis Bazzana in 2024, and he didn't make his debut until April of this year. But as long as Cholowsky can avoid injuries, he should be able to beat that timeline.
The real question is where he'll fit with the White Sox, who already have a full infield that features Colson Montgomery at shortstop. But if he or Cholowsky moves to third base with Miguel Vargas moving to first base and Munetaka Murakami moving to DH, well, that would work just fine.
ETA: Early 2027
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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