Dark-Horse MLB Award Contenders Who Could Make a Late Charge
The final two months of the MLB season carry so much weight, it's tough to predict who will walk away with baseball's major awards in the middle of August.
There are obvious front-runners for both AL and NL MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year honors as things currently stand, but a lot can change between now and the end of the season.
We saw that very thing happen last year, when Felix Hernandez looked like the clear favorite for AL Cy Young honors only to wind up losing the award to Corey Kluber after the Cleveland Indians ace finished the season on fire.
With that in mind, let's take a look at who currently lines up as the front-runner for each of those three major awards in both leagues, as well as a dark horse for each who could make a late-season push.
AL Rookie of the Year
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Current Favorite: SS Carlos Correa (HOU)
For as impressive as this year's rookie class has been as a whole, it may come as something of a surprise that someone who has played just 56 games is the front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year.
Carlos Correa has simply been that good, though.
The 20-year-old has piled up 29 extra-base hits and 118 total bases in just 220 at-bats while stepping into a key role for a contending Houston Astros team.
In the process, he's pulled away from Nathan Karns (TB), Lance McCullers (HOU), Carson Smith (SEA), Roberto Osuna (TOR) and early favorite Devon Travis (TOR), who has missed significant time with a shoulder injury.
Correa may be the favorite, but look no further than his own division for the man who may steal the award from him with a strong stretch run.
Dark Horse: SP Andrew Heaney (LAA)
The Miami Marlins drafted Andrew Heaney with the No. 9 pick in the 2012 draft, and after bouncing around a bit, he has found a home in the Los Angeles Angels' rotation.
This past offseason, the Marlins shipped the 24-year-old to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Dee Gordon trade, then the Dodgers flipped him in exchange for second baseman Howie Kendrick in a deal with the Angels.
He began the season in the minors, but the Halos promoted him to the majors at the end of June, when he would proceed to rattle off six consecutive quality starts to begin his time with the team.
Through his first nine starts, he's gone 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA, 1.035 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in 57.0 innings of work. With C.J. Wilson out for the year and Jered Weaver just easing back into the mix, he's become that much more important to the Angels' success.
NL Rookie of the Year
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Current Favorites: Take Your Pick...Duffy, Grichuk, Heston, Kang or Syndergaard
The favorite for NL Rookie of the Year honors seemingly changes on a daily basis and differs depending on what fanbase you're talking to.
Heading into the All-Star break, it was shaping up to be a two-horse race between Kris Bryant (CHC) and Joc Pederson (LAD). However, both guys have gone cold in the second half, which has opened things up to the field.
As of now, a strong case can be made for Jung Ho Kang (PIT), Matt Duffy (SF), Randal Grichuk (STL), Chris Heston (SF) and Noah Syndergaard (NYM) all being deserving of the title of front-runner for the award.
It certainly doesn't hurt that all five of those players are suiting up for contending teams, and their play down the stretch may ultimately determine who takes home the hardware.
However, it's a pitcher on a non-contending team who could sneak into the hunt for the award before all is said and done.
Dark Horse: SP Taylor Jungmann (MIL)
Young starters Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson look like solid building blocks for the future of the Milwaukee Brewers' rotation, and they've been joined in 2015 by right-hander Taylor Jungmann.
The No. 12 pick in the 2011 draft out of Texas, Jungmann ranked as the No. 70 prospect in baseball heading into the 2012 season, according to BaseballAmerica.com. However, his prospect star has faded a bit since, and he checked in as the team's No. 10 prospect heading into this year, according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook.
Despite a 6.37 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in 59.1 innings for Triple-A Colorado Springs, the big club promoted him in June, and he's since gone 6-4 with a 2.42 ERA (2.94 FIP) and 1.143 WHIP in 12 starts.
Those numbers were even better prior to a rough start against the Cubs his last time out (2.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 ER). If he can bounce back and put up similar numbers the rest of the way, the 25-year-old could find himself very much in the NL Rookie of the Year conversation by season's end.
AL Cy Young
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Current Favorites: SP Dallas Keuchel (HOU), SP Sonny Gray (OAK) and SP David Price (TOR)
The 2014 AL Cy Young race was the perfect example of a dark-horse candidate finishing strong to take the award away from the perceived favorite.
Felix Hernandez probably should have taken home his second AL Cy Young award last year, as he led the league in ERA (2.14) and WHIP (0.915) and had a terrific all-around season. However, Corey Kluber finished on fire at 9-3 with a 1.73 ERA over his final 14 starts and edged King Felix out in a close vote.
This year, there isn't a clear front-runner so far, making things a bit trickier as far as picking a dark horse.
Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray have looked like the top two candidates for most of the season, but David Price is coming on strong of late, and his move to a contender bumps him into that upper tier of candidates as well.
One team without a clear-cut candidate, though, is the Kansas City Royals, and it's from their staff that a dark horse may emerge.
Dark Horse: RP Wade Davis (KC)
Let me preface this by saying that a non-closer reliever has never won Cy Young honors, and it would represent a huge shift in the mindset of voters if that were to change.
However, if there's one setup reliever capable of upending the voting system, it's Kansas City Royals' eighth-inning ace Wade Davis.
Davis was one of the breakout stars of 2014, posting a 1.00 ERA, 0.847 WHIP and 13.6 K/9 to finish eighth in Cy Young voting, one spot ahead of the man he sets up in closer Greg Holland.
This year, he's been even better, lowering his ERA to 0.59, his WHIP to 0.810 and also nailing down nine saves when Holland missed time earlier this season.
Despite throwing just 45.2 innings, roughly a quarter of what most starters have thrown at this point in the season, his 2.6 WAR ranks 11th among all AL pitchers.
The Royals bullpen has been such a weapon the past two years—and such a huge reason for their success. Davis is the best arm in that group, and he's having a monster season, so don't be surprised if at the very least he improves on that eighth-place finish from a year ago.
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NL Cy Young
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Current Favorite: SP Zack Greinke (LAD)
There is no shortage of dominant arms in the National League right now, but Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke is in a league of his own at this point.
Max Scherzer (WAS), Jacob deGrom (NYM), Gerrit Cole (PIT) and Greinke's teammate and reigning NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw are all worthy of mention, but they're all chasing Greinke right now, and it's not particularly close.
The 31-year-old leads all qualified starters in ERA (1.65), WHIP (0.865) and WAR (6.6), and his 222 ERA+ would be the 15th-best mark of all time and the best since Roger Clemens in 1997.
Greinke rattled off a brilliant 45.2-inning scoreless streak earlier this year, and he has a phenomenal 21 quality starts in 23 appearances on the year.
Dark Horse: SP Jake Arrieta (CHC)
Most expected Jon Lester to be the ace of the Chicago Cubs' staff after he signed a six-year, $155 million deal. While he's pitched better of late, there's little question Jake Arrieta has been the team's best starter in 2015.
After failing to fully tap into his vast potential in Baltimore, Arrieta was acquired by the Cubs at the 2013 deadline along with reliever Pedro Strop in exchange for veteran starter Scott Feldman.
He started 2014 on the disabled list but returned to go 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA, 0.989 WHIP and 167 strikeouts in 156.2 innings over 25 starts to finish ninth in NL Cy Young voting.
That breakout season was far from a fluke, as he's actually been even better this year at 13-6 with a 2.38 ERA, 0.991 WHIP and 158 strikeouts in 155.1 innings.
More importantly, he's playing his best baseball of the season right now, dominating to the tune of a 7-1 record with a 1.23 ERA and 0.805 WHIP over his last 10 starts.
The 29-year-old is poised for a strong finish to the season, and he may have the best chance of anyone to pry the award away from Greinke.
AL MVP
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Current Favorite: CF Mike Trout (LAA)
Mike Trout finally claimed the first of what may eventually be a trophy room full of MVP awards last year, and he's the odds-on favorite to receive the honor once again this year.
The 23-year-old is hitting .300/.393/.600 with 33 home runs and 69 RBI while leading the American League with a 180 OPS+ and 6.9 WAR.
All that being said, he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in the second half with a somewhat pedestrian .256/.347/.547 line.
At this point, his biggest competition appears to be Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson, who is in the midst of a huge first season with the team. He's hitting .296/.365/.572 with 31 home runs and leading the AL in RBI (85) and runs scored (84) while continuing to play stellar defense.
From a statistical standpoint, Nelson Cruz belongs in the discussion as well. He's on track to be the first player since Dante Bichette in 1995 to lead the league in both home runs (34) and hits (140). Not playing for a contender will hurt him, though.
Dark Horse: CF Lorenzo Cain (KC)
In 2014, it was left fielder Alex Gordon who emerged as a dark-horse AL MVP candidate for the Kansas City Royals before eventually finishing 12th in the voting.
This time around, it's his teammate Lorenzo Cain who is in position to potentially steal some votes if he can put together a strong finish to the season.
After a breakout performance last year in which he hit .301 with a .751 OPS on his way to a 5.1 WAR, Cain has not only proved those numbers were for real but has taken his power game to another level.
All told, the 29-year-old is hitting .318/.372/.514 with 28 doubles and 12 home runs. Add in his speed (21 steals) and stellar defense (16 DRS, 12.3 UZR/150, per FanGraphs), and it adds up to a 6.4 WAR that ranks second among AL position players.
It's worth noting Cain's teammate Eric Hosmer has been among the hottest hitters in baseball in the second half, batting .396/.445/.624 since the break. But for now, Cain still looks like the best MVP candidate on the AL's best team.
NL MVP
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Current Favorite: RF Bryce Harper (WAS)
After being touted as the most overrated player in the league by more than a few people over the past few seasons, Bryce Harper has finally turned his tremendous raw talent into production for the Washington Nationals.
Staying healthy has certainly played a role in his breakout performance, but it's an improved approach that has made perhaps the biggest difference, as he's seen his walk rate spike from 9.6 to 18.2 percent, per FanGraphs.
Regardless of the cause, Harper is enjoying one of the best individual offensive seasons we've seen in years, hitting .330/.456/.643 with 29 home runs, 69 RBI and 77 runs scored to lead the NL with a 6.8 WAR.
Similar to Nelson Cruz on the AL side of things, Paul Goldschmidt is having a monster season for a non-contender. The Diamondbacks first baseman is hitting .341/.457/.584 with 22 home runs and 83 RBI, but he may have to settle for another second-place finish in voting like he did in 2013.
Dark Horse: C Buster Posey (SF)
For the second consecutive season, Buster Posey is making a push for NL MVP honors with a big performance after the All-Star break.
After a subpar .277/.333/.423 line in the first half last year, he exploded to hit .354/.403/.575 after the break to finish sixth in the MVP voting and help the Giants secure a wild-card berth.
He put together a far more impressive .314/.381/.498 line before the break here in 2015 but has been arguably the best hitter in the league in the second half with a .393/.426/.512 line.
The Giants again find themselves needing everything they can get out of Posey as they look to secure a postseason spot, and that could prove to be the difference.
If Posey can help the Giants reach the playoffs with a big final two months, and the Nationals continue their current slide and wind up missing out, it's not inconceivable to think Posey could pull ahead of Harper and walk away with his second NL MVP.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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