5 Biggest Questions Entering 2026 NBA Finals Between New York Knicks, San Antonio Spurs
After a long season, we have finally reached the 2026 NBA Finals: the reason they play, and we watch.
A meeting between the San Antonio Spurs and the New York Knicks isn't what most expected, but it lets us party like it's 1999. Oh, and if their respective playoff performances are any indication, we're in for an epic best-of-seven set.
Naturally, ahead of Wednesday's Game 1, we've got questions. Tons of them. So many that our heads might explode.
Rather than risk cranial combustion, we've narrowed down the list of whats, whos and whosiewhatsits to a grand total of five*. These are far from the only questions, but they're the ones whose answers will determine which team is left holding the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
*Note: Since yours truly and the rest of the Bleacher Report NBA crew already offer series predictions, the ever-massive "Who wins?" question will not be included.
How Much Will Injuries Impact The Series?
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Mitchell Robinson recently underwent surgery for a broken right pinkie finger. He has already started doing individual work at practice, but head coach Mike Brown continues to stress that the medical team has yet to clear the big man for active duty.
Soldiering on without Robinson would be a major blow for the Knicks. He has averaged under 15 minutes per game for the postseason, but his offensive rebounding is critical to their winning the possession battle against San Antonio.
New York was a plus-19 during the regular season in the 33 total minutes Robinson logged through two appearances versus the Spurs. In the NBA Cup Final, specifically, the Knicks were a plus-12 in the 12 minutes Robinson logged opposite Victor Wembanyama, with an offensive rebounding rate north of 70 percent. If Robinson misses time or struggles to crash the glass and jockey for position with the usual amount of vigor because of his finger issue, the series will not look the same for New York.
Robinson isn't the only one laboring through an injury, either. De'Aaron Fox missed the start of the Western Conference Finals with a high right ankle sprain and hasn't looked the same upon return.
In five games against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Fox shot just 50 percent at the rim and didn't have the same on-ball jiggle and joggle. After 32 percent of his half-court attempts came from the midrange through the semi-finals, he attempted just four in-between jumpers versus OKC, missing them all.
Dylan Harper is also dealing with a right adductor injury that visibly impeded him following Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. The Spurs need his rim pressure and defense if Fox isn't right. Though Harper looked more like himself in the Game 7 victory over the Thunder, this remains something worth monitoring.
Who Will Victor Wembanyama Defend on the Knicks?
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Keeping Victory Wembanyama inside the paint to instill what Bleacher Report's own Grant Hughes aptly terms Forced Exits Around The Rim (F.E.A.R.) is San Antonio's primary defensive aim. That suggests head coach Mitch Johnson will put his 7'4" DPOY on Josh Hart, much like he did during the regular season.
This strategy might pay off. Hart is shooting just 30.3 percent from deep for the playoffs and can be hesitant to fire off wide-open jumpers even when they're falling. Wemby might be able to roam off Hart without consequence.
At the same time, Hart will have stretches in which higher efficiency and volume collide. Ask the Cleveland Cavaliers about Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals once they get back from Cancun. Do the Spurs have the stomach to let Hart go kaboom? Would they have Wemby play further up on him if he gets hot? Or would they move Wemby entirely off Hart?
Karl-Anthony Towns will have a say in the matter. If he carves up whichever wing San Antonio puts on him, does that necessitate throwing Wembanyama at him? If so, can the ever-hesitant-to-get-'em-up KAT take and make enough threes to pull the interstellar traveler out of the paint? And how will Wemby hold up against Towns' bulldozing drives?
The chess match won't end if putting Wembanyama on Hart pans out in favor of the Spurs. New York can substitute in Landry Shamet or Deuce McBride and play a more holistic five-out lineup. Where does San Antonio put Wemby then? The answer will be fluid—and likely determine multiple games.
Who Guards Victor Wembanyama for the Knicks?
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The answer to this question will be oversimplified by the masses. Because while there is no such thing as a "Victor Wembanyama stopper," OG Anunoby looks and plays like he was made in a lab by mad scientists commissioned specifically to design a Wemby stopper.
It turns out the numbers back this up, as Basketball, She Wrote's Caitlin Cooper notes:
Going this route is inevitable. But leaning on it too much risks limiting the amount of time Anunoby can roam or pitch in against one of San Antonio's dynamic ball handlers.
Putting OG on Wemby from the jump also risks early foul trouble. Too much of this look might even exhaust Anunoby—who, by the way, is only four games into his return from a right hamstring strain. Perhaps most importantly, Anunoby-on-Wemby could prevent the Knicks from stashing Jalen Brunson on Julian Champagnie or forcing Towns to chase around Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle or Fox.
Robinson is the obvious alternative, but this presumes he's healthy enough to play. Even if he is, Robinson is not a high-volume option. He has yet to clear 20 minutes in a single game this postseason, and he's eclipsed the 25-minute mark just seven times during the regular season.
Towns will have to be the answer for extended pockets, if not the primary option against Wemby. Most will declare this approach dead on arrival, but the former No. 1 overall pick has defended well for most of the playoffs.
Not only is Towns physical enough to make Wemby uncomfortable, but he tends to be most effective when activated against higher-usage options. In the two non-NBA Cup matchups between these teams, the Spurs averaged just 0.91 points per possession when KAT was assigned to Wemby.
Small-sample theater abounds here. The Knicks also can't trust Towns to stay out of foul trouble if he's guarding Wemby full-time. Once again, this will be another fascinating chess match that could tilt the outcome of multiple games.
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Will the Knicks and Spurs Play More Center-Less Lineups?
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Running center-less secondary units is not the default for either team. Yet they both may have no choice but to deploy them in larger doses.
Robinson's health and effectiveness are the inflection points for the Knicks. If he's not ready to rock or isn't as active on the glass because of his broken right pinkie finger, New York will have to pull the no-big card when Towns is catching a breather. The same goes in the event San Antonio uncorks Maul-a-Mitch, and Robinson is bricking his free throws.
The Knicks have, so far, tallied 27 minutes in the playoffs without a center on the floor. During that time, they're scoring under 0.99 points per possession and are minus-nine overall. The results improve slightly when Anunoby is part of the crew, but relying on him during these minutes inherently reduces the reps he can rack up against Wembanyama.
The Spurs, by contrast, have played 40 minutes without a center on the hardwood, during which they're a net even. Luke Kornet is their preferred option during the non-Wemby stretches, but they'll have a decision to make if the Knicks downsize due to Robinson's unavailability or limitations.
San Antonio might even need to pull the no-center cord before New York. Kornet was minus-38 during a Western Conference Finals in which the Thunder were often missing two of their three best attacking ball handlers (Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell).
Life isn't getting any easier for Kornet against the Knicks. New York's secondary units are more dynamic on the offensive side, particularly if Brown emphasizes playing Brunson during the no-Wemby minutes. This could wind up being a series that moderately features a Carter Bryant-Champagnie-Keldon Johnson frontcourt.
Who Will Be Each Team's Biggest X-Factor?
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The Spurs
You can talk yourself into virtually every player other than Victor Wembanyama. Champagnie will likely be the most popular answer, if only because his three-point shooting could determine whether the Knicks have somewhere to safely stash Brunson or Towns.
Fox laboring through a high-ankle sprain makes him a good choice, too. San Antonio can't curtail his court time when he's so important to limiting its turnovers. But if he's not moving close to full bore, Fox gives New York a pain point to poke at when the Spurs are on defense.
Harper fits the bill 10 times over if Fox isn't Fox. Ditto for Castle, whose primary ball-handling responsibilities can fluctuate. Also: Can Castle hit enough threes to make the Knicks' life on defense difficult impossible?
Bryant is worth a mention if he gets a ton of run during non-Castle minutes, or if the Spurs need to downsize. Keldon Johnson fits for a lot of the same reasons. Kornet's minutes are a worthwhile choice, too.
Spurs' Biggest X-Factor Prediction: Julian Champagnie
The Knicks
Brunson, Anunoby and Towns are all off limits relative to their stature. Knowing that, Hart will probably be the consensus pick. His three-point shooting could dictate how the Spurs use Wemby on defense.
Mikal Bridges deserves more consideration here than he's bound to get. He'll be saddled with chasing around Fox, Harper and Castle. Beyond that, though, Bridges' mid-range jumper will be a swing point if Castle locks up Brunson and Wemby walls off the paint.
Shamet and McBride vault near the top of the list if the Knicks need to favor a true five-out look. Robinson's availability is an obvious question.
Maaaaybe Jose Alvarado emerges as a candidate if New York is desperate for ball pressure and a jolt of adrenaline. This doesn't feel like a Jordan Clarkson series, but if Robinson is a no-go, Clarkson's improvement as an offensive rebounder could prompt the Knicks to dust him off.
Spurs' Biggest X-Factor Prediction: Landry Shamet
Dan Favale is a National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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