Breaking Down MLB's Biggest Pennant Race X-Factors, Storylines
We've vaulted into August and well past the 100-game mark of the 2015 MLB season. So you'd think the playoff picture would be coming into focus.
And it is—sort of.
Four of the six first-place teams hold division leads of three games or fewer entering play Sunday. And the wild-card races in both leagues are clear as pine tar, with a crowded field of viable contenders jockeying for position.
So it's too early to crown any winners. In many cases, it's hard to even pick a favorite.
At the very least, though, we can identify the storylines and X-factors that will help determine who will emerge from this tangled postseason scramble.
Obviously we can't cover every angle for every team in every race. But here's a handful of key narrative threads—significant injuries, slumping sluggers, twists of the schedule and more—that will loom large as October approaches.
The San Francisco Giants' Schedule
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If the San Francisco Giants are planning to bust the odd-year curse and return to the postseason, they'll have to do it in spite of the second-toughest remaining schedule in the National League.
That's according to a recent breakdown by FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan, who determined Aug. 5 the Giants have a rougher slog ahead than any NL squad except the woeful Colorado Rockies.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, who lead the Giants by three games in the NL West, have the sixth-toughest remaining schedule. And the Pittsburgh Pirates, who currently hold the top wild-card spot, have the fourth-toughest. So San Francisco can hang its hat on that.
But the New York Mets and Washington Nationals have the two easiest remaining schedules, and whichever of those clubs fails to win the NL East should be in the mix for a wild-card slot.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs—who will go for a four-game sweep of the Giants at Wrigley Field on Sunday—have the fifth-easiest remaining slate.
None of that means San Francisco is doomed or that the clubs with softer schedules will coast. But this stretch run won't be a cakewalk for the defending champs.
Hey, it's an odd year—did you expect anything less?
Joc Pederson's Missing Power Stroke
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Joc Pederson launched his 20th dinger June 29 and put on a dazzling display at the Home Run Derby in Cincinnati.
Since June 29, however, the Los Angeles Dodgers rookie has managed just a single long ball, and his batting average has dipped to a pedestrian .224.
The Dodgers have moved Pederson out of the leadoff spot, and he didn't start in Saturday's loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, skipper Don Mattingly insists there's been no serious talk of sending the 23-year-old down to work out the kinks.
"Now's not the time to start messing with our club and getting away from what we've been doing," Mattingly said, per Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times. "We've been playing great defense up the middle. There's really no pressure on him. We're not asking for a bunch of offense."
That's a nice line. Ultimately, though, the Dodgers will need some offense from Pederson as they try to fend off the Giants and win a third straight division crown. And if it can be of the jaw-dropping, fence-clearing variety, all the better.
C.J. Wilson's Season-Ending Surgery
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The Los Angeles Angels enter play Sunday in the second wild-card slot, two games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles. But the defending AL West champs are also just 1.5 games back of the Houston Astros for the division lead.
In fact, the AL West figures to be one of the more competitive races in baseball, and the Halos are fully capable of winning it.
They were dealt a blow with the news that left-hander C.J. Wilson will undergo season-ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow. Wilson, who owns a 3.89 ERA in 132 innings, is a key member of the Angels rotation. So losing him is bad enough.
His decision to have the surgery, however, has also created a rift in the clubhouse, according to MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez, who wrote that "several Angels players expressed frustration in Wilson's decision, with some believing he should've continued to try to pitch through the issue."
The Angels still have All-Star Hector Santiago and burgeoning rookie Andrew Heaney, plus Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker, in the starting corps.
The fifth spot, on the other hand, is a question mark. Veteran Jered Weaver is working his way back from the disabled list, but the 32-year-old posted a 4.75 ERA in 15 starts and saw his fastball velocity plummet to a career-low 85.1 mph, per FanGraphs.
Yes, plenty of clubs have issues at the back end of the rotation. But as the Angels try to catch the 'Stros, that one trouble spot could prove crucial.
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A.J. Burnett's Balky Elbow
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Speaking of injuries to key arms, the Pittsburgh Pirates are hoping A.J. Burnett can make one more miraculous comeback.
After leading the big leagues in earned runs and walks allowed in 2014 with the Philadelphia Phillies, it looked like Burnett's career was cooked.
But instead of retiring, the 38-year-old right-hander inked a deal with the Bucs and proceeded to turn back the clock, posting a 2.11 first-half ERA and making his first All-Star team.
Burnett struggled after the break, however, coughing up 18 earned runs and 32 hits in 16 innings, and the Pirates placed him on the disabled list July 31 with inflammation in his right elbow.
Pittsburgh could get Burnett back about three weeks from now, according to the team's official Twitter account. Even if that's true, how effective will he be?
And despite the presence of ace right-hander Gerrit Cole, it's worth wondering if the Pirates can make a deep playoff run without their formerly age-defying co-ace.
Stephen Strasburg's Latest Comeback
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The Washington Nationals enter Sunday 1.5 games back of the New York Mets in the NL East and four games off the wild-card pace.
That's not how the script was supposed to play out for the Nats, a near-consensus pick to win their division among ESPN's experts and essentially everyone else.
If Washington is going to dust itself off and reassert its dominance, it'll need the help of Stephen Strasburg, who tied Johnny Cueto for the most strikeouts in the NL in 2014 but has been an injury-plagued mess this season.
The 27-year-old right-hander returned from his second disabled-list stint of 2015 on Saturday and offered a glimpse of his otherworldly potential, allowing one run and three hits in seven frames and striking out 12.
Yes, it's just one start. But if Strasburg can stack a similar outing on top of it—and then another and another—it'll calm a lot of nerves in the nation's capital.
The Kansas City Royals' 'Bad Boy' Reputation
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The Kansas City Royals were already the class of the American League. Then they went and nabbed ace Johnny Cueto and super-utility player Ben Zobrist at the trade deadline, solidifying their status as the odds-on favorites to claim the AL Central and streak toward a second consecutive World Series appearance.
But there's been another narrative brewing in Kansas City. The Royals have morphed into the bad boys of baseball.
Early this year, the Royals engaged in beanball battles and on-field donnybrooks with the Oakland A's, Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels, leading yours truly to opine that they'd gone from "baseball's Cinderella" to "the role of Wicked Stepsister."
More recently, Kansas City butted heads with the Toronto Blue Jays, though the penalties all fell on the Jays side in that case, with Toronto pitcher Aaron Sanchez and manager John Gibbons getting slapped with suspensions.
Still, if you search for a common denominator, it's the Royals. They've wound up in the middle of an inordinate number of benches-clearing incidents. Do they have a chip on their shoulder? And, more importantly, will it be a distraction down the stretch?
Skipper Ned Yost dismisses the notion.
"We're not the bad boys of baseball," Yost said after the encounter with Toronto, during which Jays sluggers Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki were plunked, per Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star. "We didn't do anything that was wrong. We just played the game. With a club like that, especially a club like that, you have to pitch in, or you're going to get killed."
The Toronto Blue Jays' Sudden Invincibility
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It's been 22 years since the Toronto Blue Jays tasted the postseason. That's also the last time they won the World Series.
Could this be the year they end both streaks? With each resounding win, that notion seems less far-fetched.
Since netting All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and ace left-hander David Price at the trade deadline, the Jays have gone 7-1. Overall, they've won 10 of their last 11 to grab the top wild-card spot and move within 2.5 games of the New York Yankees in the AL East.
That success, Raju Mudhar of the Toronto Star noted, has led to a spike in ratings and a boost in ticket sales.
"Obviously there is a lot of baseball left," Mudhar wrote, "but the Jays are already seeing the benefits of success and being Canada’s team."
Momentum is fleeting in sports. Right now, however, Toronto has it—and it feels like it might last.
The New York Yankees' Veteran Bats
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Speaking of the AL East, the Yankees remain on top. Yes, they're hearing the Blue Jays' footsteps (wing beats?), but until further notice, they're the squad to beat.
The most obvious question mark for the Yanks is their starting pitching, which owned an unsightly 4.31 ERA entering play Sunday. The bats, on the other hand, have kept New York afloat, scoring the second-most runs in baseball, behind only Toronto.
Yet there's cause for at least a little hand-wringing there as well.
New York's offense is built around veterans Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, who rank among the club's top three in OPS, on-base percentage, home runs and RBI.
That's not inherently bad; in fact, quite the opposite.
But remember: A-Rod is coming off a year-long performance-enhancing drug suspension and just celebrated his 40th birthday. And the 35-year-old Teixeira has dealt with a battery of injuries that landed him on the disabled list last season and limited him to 15 games in 2013.
Ken Davidoff of the New York Post stated the question bluntly: "Can A-Rod and Teixeira, so injury-prone in recent years, maintain this?"
Maybe they can. And maybe they'll push the Yankees back to the playoffs for the first time since 2012, which counts as a protracted drought in the Bronx.
But their ability to remain productive and on the field through the long, sweltering summer will certainly be a storyline worth following.
All statistics current as of Aug. 7 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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