Hawks' Stunning Odds for No. 1 Pick in 2026 NBA Draft Revealed Ahead of Lottery Drawing
Amid all of the anticipation about the 2026 NBA draft, the Atlanta Hawks are the most intriguing team to watch when the lottery results are revealed on Sunday because they get the most favorable selection from the New Orleans Pelicans or Milwaukee Bucks.
On the latest episode of The Hoop Collective Podcast (starts at 1:15:00 mark), ESPN's Brian Windhorst explained that the Hawks "essentially" have the same odds as the Sacramento Kings of landing the No. 1 overall pick.
Even if the Hawks don't get the first pick, Windhorst noted there is around a 40 percent chance they get a top-four selection based on the odds for the Pelicans and Bucks:
- No. 1 pick: 10 percent
- No. 2 pick: 10 percent
- No. 3 pick: 10.1 percent
- No. 4 pick: 10.3 percent
The Hawks have a chance to win the lottery without even controlling their own pick. They sent a pick swap to the San Antonio Spurs in 2022 as part of the Dejounte Murray trade.
Atlanta's own pick will fall outside of the lottery, at No. 20 overall, after making the playoffs this season.
In a separate written article released on Friday, Windhorst noted the Hawks have a 90 percent chance of securing a top-eight pick in the lottery.
Using the latest mock draft from B/R's Jonathan Wasserman, even if the Hawks' pick falls on the low end of that outcome at No. 8, they could land a player like Mikel Brown Jr.
If the pick ends up being No. 1 overall, the Hawks could add someone like A.J. Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson to a nucleus that already features Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels.
The Hawks acquired New Orleans' pick on draft night last year when the two teams agreed to a deal that gave the Pelicans rights to the No. 13 selection that was used for Derik Queen.
Milwaukee's pick being involved goes back to its acquisition of Jrue Holiday in November 2020. The Bucks sent a cache of picks to New Orleans, including a first-round swap in 2026.
New Orleans' draft-night decision last year was widely panned. Even though Queen had a solid rookie season, it was viewed as a short-sighted move for a team that was probably not going to be very good in 2025-26.
One assistant general manager told The Athletic's Sam Vecenie after the Pelicans made the deal with Atlanta that it was "the worst trade, non-Luka division, that we've seen in at least a decade."
Things worked out even better for the Hawks because the Bucks flamed out with a 32-50 record. Milwaukee and New Orleans are both in the top 10 of the lottery odds, with the Pelicans having a 6.8 percent chance to win the top pick and a 29.3 percent chance of moving into the top four.
The Bucks have a 13.9 percent chance of winning a top-four pick and 3.0 percent chance of winning the No. 1 overall selection.
For a Hawks team coming off a 46-win season, led by Johnson becoming an All-Star and Alexander-Walker turning in the best season of his career to win Most Improved Player, the sky is the limit with the lottery odds in their favor going into this weekend.
