Comparing Mel Kiper and Todd McShay's Newest NFL Mock Drafts at the Start of Draft Week

Draft week has arrived, football fans! In a matter of days, Fernando Mendoza will be the Las Vegas Raiders' new franchise quarterback, and the real draft drama will begin.

While we don't know exactly how the rest of Round 1 will unfold after Las Vegas makes its pick official, we're beginning to get a pretty solid idea. Draft gurus Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN and Todd McShay of The Ringer have released updated mock drafts that have a lot of similarities at the top.

Here, we'll dive into some of the biggest consensus picks from Kiper and McShay and see how they compare to the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's latest three-round mock draft based on big-board rankings.

These projections were released before the Cincinnati Bengals agreed to trade the 10th overall pick to the New York Giants for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, and only Kiper's mock has been updated.

Top 16 Comparison

AP Photo/Julio Cortez

Texas Tech edge-prospect David Bailey

Kiper's Top 16

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. New York Jets: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

3. Arizona Cardinals: Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State

4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

5. New York Giants: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

6. Dallas Cowboys (Projected trade): Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

7. Washington Commanders: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

8. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

10. New York Giants (from Cincinnati): Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

11. Miami Dolphins: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

12. Cleveland Browns (Projected Trade):  Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta): Makai Lemon, WR, USC

14. Baltimore Ravens: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

16. New York Jets (from Indianapolis): Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

McShay's Top 16

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. New York Jets: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

3. New Orleans Saints (Projected trade): Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State

4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

5. New York Giants: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

6. Dallas Cowboys (Projected trade): Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

7. New York Jets (Projected trade): Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

8. Arizona Cardinals (Projected trade): Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

10. Cincinnati Bengals: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

11. Miami Dolphins: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

12. Cleveland Browns (Projected trade): Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta): Makai Lemon, WR, USC

14. Baltimore Ravens: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Miami

16. Washington Commanders (Projected trade): Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

Are the Top 4 Locked?

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We don't know exactly who will come off the board after Mendoza, but Kiper and McShay seem pretty confident about the next few selections.

They both have the New York Jets taking Texas Tech edge-rusher David Bailey over Ohio State's Arvell Reese. The debate about which sack artist the Jets should take has been one of the bigger predraft storylines as of late, as McShay explained:

"This pick has come full circle. My early intel was Bailey to the Jets at no. 2 because he's the most proven pass rusher in the class. Then there were folks in the league who thought the Jets—as they're building for 2027, when they'll land their QB—might prefer the 'higher upside' guy in Arvell Reese because they have time to develop him. Now we're back to Bailey, and it's close to a foregone conclusion in NFL circles."

While McShay had the Arizona Cardinals trading the No. 3 pick to the New Orleans Saints, both he and Kiper had Reese going third overall. Both had Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love going to the Tennessee Titans at No. 4.

The B/R Scouting Department had a slightly different order in its mock draft. With Reese going second, though, and Bailey going third, the Scouting Department's top four prospects are the same as Kiper and McShay's.

Sonny Styles Viewed as an Elite Prospect

AP Photo/Jay LaPrete

Ohio State LB prospect Sonny Styles

Off-ball linebackers aren't usually considered top-tier draft prizes. However, Ohio State's Sonny Styles appears to be a mold-breaking exception. The sixth-ranked prospect at any position on the B/R Scouting Department's board, Styles is being viewed as a blue-chip prospect.

In fact, Kiper and McShay each mocked a trade that saw the Dallas Cowboys moving up for Styles at No. 6.

"We've all wondered whether the Cowboys would use both of their first-round picks on defense this month, but this trade up the board might have a greater impact, even if it means sacrificing one of those Day 1 selections," Kiper wrote. "Styles is my No. 4 prospect."

The B/R Scouting Department didn't mock a trade involving Styles, but it did mock the linebacker to the Giants at No. 5.

"While New York signed Tremaine Edmunds to a three-year, $36 million contract, Micah McFadden is only on a one-year deal," Matt Holder of the B/R Scouting Department said. "By pairing Edmunds and Styles, the Giants will feature one of the NFL's most athletic linebacking corps to complement a strong pass-rush and support a questionable secondary."

New York, by the way, continue to be a wild card in the draft. While the Scouting Department sent the Giants Styles, Kiper paired them with Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, while McShay paired them with Miami lineman Francis Mauigoa.

Lawrence Trade Might Not Dramatically Impact Round 1

AP Photo/John Locher

Dexter Lawrence

The Lawrence trade is obviously a big deal. It's the sort of win-now move that the Bengals rarely make, but it's one they say they couldn't resist.

"The opportunity to add a player of Dexter's ability was too good to pass up," director of player personnel Duke Tobin said in a press release.

For the Giants, the trade lands them a pair of top-10 selections. However, there's a very real chance that the first round won't dramatically shift as the 10th changes hands.

New York doesn't seem like a candidate to package picks and move further up the draft board, and we're unlikely to see a true stunner at No. 10. Kiper mocked Mauigoa to the Giants after having him at No. 11 in his previous mock.

"After going defense at No. 5, the Giants would be happy to see the class' top offensive tackle still on the board here," Kiper wrote. "They brought back Jermaine Eluemunor, but adding Mauigoa would take this unit to the next level."

Coincidentally, LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane was Kiper's previous pick for No. 10, and he now lands at No. 11.

Mauigoa likely wouldn't have been Cincinnati's choice at No. 10, but he was already looking likely to be a top-12 selection anyway. He was also a potential target of New York, as evidenced by McShay's mock.

The trade means the Giants should have a little more flexibility with the fifth overall pick, but it doesn't mean that we're likely to see a surprise player enter the top half of Round 1 or fall out of it.

Monroe Freeling Looking Like First-Round Lock

AP PhotoMike Stewart

Georgia OT prospect Monroe Freeling

We often talk about prospects "rising up draft boards" at this point in the predraft process. That phrase doesn't indicate that players have somehow gotten better, bigger, or more impressive, though.

Rising prospects are often a product of media members and draft analysts catching wind of how NFL teams actually view a prospect. Factors like upside and positional depth also play a role.

In the case of Georgia offensive tackle Monroe Freeling, for example, potential and positional depth may have him locked into the first round—even though he's only the 48th-ranked prospect on the B/R board.

Freeling is a talented but raw prospect who might be viewed as a developmental Day-2 target in a deeper draft. However, there aren't many "sure-thing" tackles in this class, and Freeling's upside is elite.

"A selection in the 20s is the right range and team for a prospect with Freeling's raw talent and unrefined skill set," Brandon Thorn of the B/R Scouting Department said.

The Scouting Department team paired Freeling with the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 23, as did McShay. Kiper had him going even higher, to the Detroit Lions at No. 17.

"Freeling has a huge 6-7, 315-pound frame and long 34¾-inch arms, and he can erase pass rushers with his quickness and handwork," Kiper wrote. "His 18 starts of experience might worry some teams, but I'd bet Detroit would be happy to land Freeling in this range."

At this point, Freeling feels like a first-round lock.