Breaking Down Novak Djokovic's Chances to Sweep the 2015 US Open Series

Every time Novak Djokovic steps onto the court, he is the strong favorite to win. This will be true even as he gets ready for the heart of the 2015 U.S. Open series, despite the relative lean results he has had in North America.

The U.S. Open series also features a handful of mid-level tournaments, but most of the stars will opt out or rest at places like Atlanta and the Winston-Salem Open. The top stars rarely prioritize them. The real focus will be Masters 1000 tournaments at Canada (Montreal this year for the men), Cincinnati and the year’s final major at New York’s U.S. Open.

What are the chances that Djokovic can win this triple crown of late summer? After all, he has not won any of these three titles since Canada in 2012. Tennis Canada (via the Rogers Cup's official website) announced the tournament's seedings:

The Challenge

The physical challenge of winning Canada, Cincinnati and the U.S. Open in the same year is something that belongs in Greek mythology, where arduous tasks are often met by monsters and supernatural obstacles. Only Patrick Rafter (1998), Andy Roddick (2003) and Rafael Nadal (2013) have completed this quest, and for each of them it was the last time they would win the U.S. Open.

Notable legends such as Pete Sampras and Roger Federer never achieved the triple crown, even though the Swiss Maestro has two Canada Open titles, six Cincinnati titles and five consecutive U.S. Open titles from 2004 to 2008.

The difficulties are many:

• Hard courts typically allow all types of styles, especially big servers, to thrive. There are deep draws of players.
• Fatigue can wear down some of the stars who most favor the early part of the year with the slower surfaces.
• Physical exertion includes pounding on knees and summer heat.
• Some players will rise up to peak at this time, more rested and ready for ambush. Last year’s Rogers Cup winner was Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and the U.S. Open winner was Marin Cilic. Their wins were by far their outlying highlights. In contrast, Federer was worn down with two consecutive Masters finals and the U.S. Open semifinal.
• A second big trip back to America can be redundant to global competitors. For instance, in the late 1970s, Bjorn Borg despised night matches, and he was far from the comforts of home and favored foods. A lot has changed now with bigger perks and comforts, but there are countless adjustments competitors must make halfway around the world. Cincinnati is not Serbia.

Djokovic has often found this to be a more difficult period of the year, though not without success. He has three Rogers Cups from the Canada Open (2007, 2011-12) and the 2011 U.S. Open title.

Cincinnati’s faster surface has been more troublesome, and it’s the only Masters 1000 tournament he has not won. Some of this can be attributed to Federer’s monopoly there, but Djokovic could not cash in on appearances in four finals in five years (2008-12).

Al Behrman/Associated Press

The Dilemma

Djokovic is so dominant right now, he is expected to win the big tournaments. It cannot feel acceptable for him to be satisfied with anything less than titles, even though a few more losses here and there might ultimately keep him fresher and hungrier to capture the next championship opportunity.

During the spring stretch, Djokovic claimed the Indian Wells and Miami double on hard courts. Then he flew to Europe for the clay-court season and claimed Monte Carlo.

Though he had not been defeated in a big tournament dating back to the 2014 U.S. Open, Djokovic chose to withdraw from Madrid in order to rest up for Rome and the French Open.

There were different sides to that Madrid decision, and Djokovic ultimately fell short of winning the French Open. However, Madrid could be an indicator of Djokovic’s understanding of how difficult it is to win three huge tournaments in about six weeks.

Should he pace himself in Canada or Cincinnati to ensure that he has energy for the all-important U.S. Open? For consideration, Federer has already withdrawn from the Canada Open, and he will be well-rested for his more preferred faster surface in Cincinnati.

Djokovic’s dilemma is that he would love to win Cincinnati for the first time and then capture his second career U.S. Open. Canada would be nice, of course, but likely the least of those three priorities. But short of withdrawing from Canada, Djokovic is not the type to tank his chances.

Furthermore, Djokovic saw Nadal accomplish this mammoth achievement two years ago, and he was the primary victim, falling in a tough semifinal at Montreal and fading in the final sets at the U.S. Open. Djokovic might feel that he can ease some of that disappointment by sweeping the trifecta in 2015 and at least proving that he can join Nadal on the short list of those who won all three.

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Will he Take the Triple Crown?

Djokovic is at the absolute peak of his career. He has a championship presence in the ATP locker room that looms above the rest. His fellow competitors know, to beat him, they will need a nearly perfect match.

By next year, someone else could come along and make things more difficult. Or the Serbian might feel the drain that comes with being another year older and trying to defend his empire.

His greatness is a target. On one hand, this brings out the best in his opponents, an opportunity for them to defeat the world No. 1. Conversely, it can put a lot of pressure on them to maintain their best, and many have weakened as matches grow long.

For his part, Djokovic obviously takes pride in playing his best. He’s been a gamer time and again, willing to battle and fight through adversity and glorious success. He’s battle-hardened and determined, and he knows that his best tennis is almost always going to spell victory.

What he needs is a fast start in Canada. If he can thrash a few early competitors and fire on all cylinders, the message will be loud and clear to the likes of Andy Murray and Nadal that they will be hard-pressed to stay with the champion, let alone win.

His serving game keeps evolving, and this should bode well for the U.S. Open series. He’s more confident and efficient in finishing a few big points at the net, and, above all, his backhand is ready to do damage on offense and not deal as often from defensive postures as in the past. It’s been three years since he hoisted the Rogers Cup, so he will want another victory here as part of an epic tennis year.

Cincinnati might be his toughest challenge. Federer, the six-time career champion here, including last year, will be well-rested and aiming for Djokovic. A battle in the final could be the biggest non-major meeting of the year because Djokovic will want to win his maiden crown here.

Will he also have enough rest to pace himself through the U.S. Open? Last year’s semifinal loss to Kei Nishikori has to be a bitter memory but a reminder that nobody is unbeatable. What Djokovic needs most is to have somebody else do the dirty job of removing nemesis Stan Wawrinka, currently the only player on tour who has proven he can hit Djokovic off the court for a major title.

What are the odds he sweeps all three? Fifty-fifty? That’s a very high possibility that ranks alongside Federer’s chances about a decade ago, but unlike Nadal’s 2013 sweep, Djokovic is not going to sneak up on anyone.