How Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay's NFL Mock Drafts Contrast with 1 Week to Go

The 2026 NFL draft will kick off in less than a week, and analytical draft titans Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay have fresh predictions for the opening round.

ESPN's Kiper provided a two-round mock draft, while McShay mocked the top 32 picks for The Ringer.

Here, we'll examine how both mocks played out and dive a bit further into the most notable trends and the biggest differences between the two.

Top 16 Comparisons

AP Photo/AJ Mast

Indiana QB prospect Fernando Mendoza

Kiper's Top 16

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. New York Jets: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

3. Arizona Cardinals: Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State

4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

5. New York Giants: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

6. Dallas Cowboys (Projected trade): Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

7. Washington Commanders: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

8. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

10. Cincinnati Bengals: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

11. Miami Dolphins: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

12. Cleveland Browns (Projected Trade):  Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta): Makai Lemon, WR, USC

14. Baltimore Ravens: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

16. New York Jets (from Indianapolis): Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

McShay's Top 16

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. New York Jets: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

3. New Orleans Saints (Projected trade): Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State

4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

5. New York Giants: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

6. Dallas Cowboys (Projected trade): Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

7. New York Jets (Projected trade): Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

8. Arizona Cardinals (Projected trade): Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

10. Cincinnati Bengals: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

11. Miami Dolphins: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

12. Cleveland Browns (Projected trade): Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta): Makai Lemon, WR, USC

14. Baltimore Ravens: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Miami

16. Washington Commanders (Projected trade): Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

Top Half of Round 1 Becoming Clearer

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Ohio State LB/Edge prospect Arvell Reese

Everyone expects Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza to go to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 1 overall. What's very interesting about the latest mocks from McShay and Kiper is that 15 of the top 16 players were the same.

There were some notable differences in draft order, of course, beginning at No. 3 overall. Kiper and McShay both paired the New York Jets with Texas Tech edge-rusher David Bailey while sending Ohio State's Arvell Reese to the team at No. 3. However, McShay had the New Orleans Saints trading up to take Reese in that spot, while Kiper simply paired him with the Arizona Cardinals.

"If the Saints stick and pick at no. 8, there's some buzz about Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson being a favorite in the building. But defensively, edge and corner are clear priorities, and coordinator Brandon Staley is looking for very specific prototypes," McShay wrote.

McShay actually mocked multiple trades within the top half of Round 1, while Kiper only mocked one—both had the Dallas Cowboys moving up for Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles. Yet, only one player from each mock failed to make the top 16 on both lists.

Kiper sent Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 15, while Sadiq landed with the Carolina Panthers at No. 19 in McShay's mock. The Bucs took Miami edge-rusher Akheem Mesidor in McShay's mock, while Mesidor landed with the New England Patriots at No. 31 in Kiper's mock.

Opinions Split on Rueben Bain Jr.

AP Photo/Julio Cortez

Miami edge prospect Rueben Bain Jr.

Miami edge-rusher Rueben Bain Jr. may be one of the few remaining wild cards of Round 1. Despite being extremely productive in college, his 30⅞" arms appear to be a potential red flag for some NFL teams, as McShay explained:

"From what I've been told, Bain could still go as high as no. 9 to Kansas City, but his arm length is a real concern and may contribute to a draft-day slide (no edge with sub-31-inch arms has gone in the first round in at least two decades). It's worth noting that teams have known about and investigated Bain's involvement in a fatal 2024 car crash for months, so this projected slide is not a reflection of that news."

While McShay had Bain falling toward the middle of the first round, he admitted that he could still be a top-10 selection. That's where he went in Kiper's draft, landing with the New Orleans Saints at No. 8.

"Bain might have short arms for the position, but he also has immense power, plenty of explosion and the deep pass-rush toolbox to beat offensive tackles with consistency," Kiper wrote.

It's worth noting that Bain was also the pick for the New Orleans Saints in the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's mock draft at the end of March. ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller, though, believes that Bain will fall out of the top 10.

While Bailey and Reese are starting to look like top-five locks, Bain appears to be a pass-rusher with a pretty wide draft range.

Differing Plans for the Defending Champs

AP Photo/Julio Cortez

Notre Dame RB prospect Jadarian Price

The Seattle Seahawks will be an interesting team to watch over draft weekend, and not just because they're the defending Super Bowl champions.

Seattle is clearly just entering its championship window, but it lost several key contributors—including Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III—in free agency. Armed with only four total draft selections, the Seahawks will have to strongly consider the possibility of trading down and acquiring more draft capital.

Neither Kiper nor McShay, however, had Seattle moving out of the first round. McShay had the Seahawks taking Clemson edge-rusher T.J. Parker, while Kiper had Seattle getting a replacement for Walker in Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price.

Often viewed as Notre Dame's other running back—after projected top-five pick Jeremiyah Love—Price could be a great complement to Zach Charbonnet in Seattle's backfield.

"Price might not have been the RB1 at Notre Dame, but he can be one in the NFL," Kiper wrote. "He's powerful and fast, averaging 6.0 yards per carry over his career and scoring 11 touchdowns last season."

While McShay doesn't believe that Seattle will take a running back so highly, he did admit that he "wouldn't rule it out entirely."

It'll be interesting to see how the Seahawks handle the final pick in Round 1.