Cal Raleigh and MLB's Most Overhyped Stars for 2026 Season
The 2026 MLB season is just a few weeks old, but already some alarming early trends are emerging for a handful of players who were expected to be star-caliber performers in 2026.
The most glaring of the group is Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, who has looked like a shell of the player who slugged 60 home runs last season, as his strikeout rate has soared and his batted-ball metrics have plummeted.
Ahead, we've highlighted five notable players who entered the 2026 season with inflated expectations, with a deep dive into how expectations line up with reality.
That's not to suggest these players are not capable of being solid contributors or even stars in 2026, simply that they might end up falling short of the general consensus expectations.
SP Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
1 of 5
2026 Stats: 4 GS, 0-2, 6.38 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 6 BB, 18 K, 18.1 IP
Expectations: Tanner Bibee was runner-up in 2023 AL Rookie of the Year voting when he logged a 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 141 strikeouts in 142 innings. He has been a staple in the Cleveland rotation since then. The 27-year-old took the ball on Opening Day this year for the first time in his career, stepping into the ace of the staff role in the post-Shane Bieber era.
Reality: To date, Bibee's rookie season remains the best of his career. His ERA climbed to 3.47 in 2024 and 4.24 in 2025. Last year, he posted career-worst marks in FIP (4.34), opponents' batting average (.246) and home runs allowed (27). He is a durable workhorse with above-average stuff, but he fits better as a No. 3/4 starter on a contender than he does at the top of a rotation.
SP Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles
2 of 5
2026 Stats: 4 GS, 0-2, 5.49 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 10 BB, 21 K, 19.2 IP
Expectations: During his last fully healthy season in 2023, Kyle Bradish had a 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 168 strikeouts in 168.2 innings to finish fourth in AL Cy Young voting. His follow-up performance was cut short by Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him until last August, but he was lights out upon returning, with a 2.53 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 32 innings. That return to form likely contributed to the Orioles lack of prioritizing a top-of-the-rotation addition during the offseason.
Reality: The O's settled for Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt as their biggest rotation additions, banking on full seasons of Bradish and Trevor Rogers elevating the staff to another level. Instead, they rank 20th in the majors with a 4.27 ERA from their starters. Bradish has allowed 22 hits and 12 earned runs in 19.2 innings. His 3.21 FIP suggests some positive regression is coming, but relying on him for frontline production may have been a misstep.
OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
3 of 5
2026 Stats: 77 PA, 71 OPS+, .236/.276/.306, 3 XBH (1 HR), 4 SB
Expectations: Pete Crow-Armstrong was a legitimate NL MVP candidate during the first half of the 2025 season, posting an .847 OPS with 25 home runs and 27 steals in 95 games. Despite a second-half swoon, he still finished with 6.0 WAR and the first 30/30 season by a Cubs player since 1995. He inked a six-year, $115 million extension in March following a solid run with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.
Reality: His 31-homer, 35-steal stat line last year helped mask an ugly .287 on-base percentage and a middling 4.5 percent walk rate. That extremely aggressive approach is being exploited this year, as his 49.3 percent chase rate is among the worst in baseball and he has a .202 expected batting average. His elite defense and speed will always give him a high value floor, but he might be more Kevin Kiermaier than Carlos Beltrán.
C Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
4 of 5
2026 Stats: 87 PA, 58 OPS+, .169/.253/.286, 5 XBH (2 HR), 11 RBI
Expectations: Cal Raleigh put together arguably the greatest offensive season in MLB history by a catcher last year with a 60-homer, 125-RBI, 7.4-WAR campaign. While some level of regression was expected, he had a strong foundation in place with back-to-back 30-homer seasons in 2023 and 2024 when he logged a combined 8.0 WAR. He very much looked like the clear No. 1 catcher in baseball entering the year.
Reality: Strikeouts have always been a part of Raleigh's game. Even during his otherworldly 2025 campaign, he whiffed 188 times in 159 games. However, his 29 strikeouts and 33.3 percent strikeout rate this season have made it a legitimate concern. Add to that a plummeting hard-hit rate (49.6 to 26.1 percent) and average exit velocity (91.3 to 83.3 mph) and alarm bells are ringing in Seattle.
SS Jacob Wilson, Athletics
5 of 5
2026 Stats: 77 PA, 71 OPS+, .263/.273/.342, 4 XBH (1 HR), 9 RBI
Expectations: Jacob Wilson showcased one of baseball's best hit tools during his rookie season, batting .311/.355/.444 for a 117 OPS+ while putting the ball in play in a whopping 86 percent of his plate appearances. With 26 doubles and 13 home runs, he provided more overall impact than someone like Luis Arraez. He earned a starting nod in the All-Star Game for his efforts.
Reality: The risk with a high-contact hitter is that not all contact is created equally. A weak batted-ball profile is catching up to Wilson this season. Fewer balls in play are finding holes, with his BABIP falling from .317 to .292. He has walked just once in 77 plate appearances. With so much value tied to his batting average, he has been a 0.1 WAR player through 18 games. Wilson looks a lot less like a franchise cornerstone than he did at this time last year.
