2026 Men's NCAA Tournament, B/R Expert Predictions for the Final Four
Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois and Michigan are descending on Indianapolis for a chance to win a national championship at the 2026 Final Four.
For most of these programs, this journey to Indy doubles as an opportunity to ignite a fan base. It's been at least two decades since Arizona, Illinois or Michigan won a title in the NCAA tournament.
UConn, meanwhile, is seeking its third championship in four years.
The preview of this year's Final Four includes the schedule, an overview of each program, stars, storylines and more.
Final Four Schedule
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Saturday, April 4
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Connecticut; 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS/TNT/truTV)
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 1 Arizona; 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS/TNT/truTV)
Monday, April 6
Illinois/UConn vs. Michigan/Arizona; 8:30 p.m. ET (TBS/TNT/truTV)
All games played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Illinois Fighting Illini
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Record: 28-8 (No. 3 seed in South)
Path to Final Four: 105-70 vs. No. 14 Penn; 76-55 vs. No. 11 VCU; 65-55 vs. No. 2 Houston; 71-59 vs. No. 9 Iowa
Key Strength: Offense, offense and more offense. Illinois has a stable of long-range shooters but also relentlessly crashes for rebounds, boasting the third-best rate of corralling its own misses. Led by All-American guard Keaton Wagler, six different players have tallied a 10-point showing in the NCAA tournament.
Key Weakness: Illinois is the nation's single-worst team at creating turnovers. The bright side for the Illini is that they've managed to force 29 giveaways in four March Madness wins. That's at least passable. But this U of I squad, for most of the season, has relied heavily on offense and rebounding.
Connecticut Huskies
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Record: 33-5 (No. 2 seed in East)
Path to Final Four: 82-71 vs. No. 15 Furman; 73-57 vs. No. 7 UCLA; 67-63 vs. No. 3 Michigan State; 73-72 vs. No. 1 Duke
Key Strength: Some things are not easily quantifiable, but physicality stands out on this roster. Connecticut is 18th nationally in two-point defense and 27th on the perimeter, also ranking 13th in blocks per game. It's a resilient group that pressures well and can control a game defensively.
Key Weakness: Although the Huskies have plenty of willing shooters, they're not exactly an efficient group on the perimeter. This issue played a key role in a pair of late-season setbacks and nearly crushed UConn in the Elite Eight—during which the Huskies were 1-of-18 from three before the memorable rally.
Michigan Wolverines
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Record: 35-3 (No. 1 seed in Midwest)
Path to Final Four: 101-80 vs. No. 16 Howard; 95-72 vs. No. 9 Saint Louis; 90-77 vs. No. 4 Alabama; 95-62 vs. No. 6 Tennessee
Key Strength: The depth of scoring in this Michigan attack is fantastic. As if Illinois having six 10-point scorers isn't impressive enough, seven Wolverines have netted at least 15 points in a March Madness contest. It's no surprise U-M possesses the fourth-best field-goal percentage in Division I.
Key Weakness: They care too much? Honestly, any weakness is a real nitpick. Perhaps it's a bang-on average turnover rate offensively, maybe it's the occasional ice-cold showing from the perimeter—neither of which has stung Michigan in the NCAA tourney so far. The free-throw shooting isn't always great, either? Again, this is an exceptionally well-rounded team.
Arizona Wildcats
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Record: 36-2 (No. 1 seed in West)
Path to Final Four: 92-58 vs. No. 16 Long Island; 78-66 vs. No. 9 Utah State; 109-88 vs. No. 4 Arkansas; 79-64 vs. No. 2 Purdue
Key Strength: Good luck containing Arizona inside the arc—on both ends of the court. While making the second-most two-pointers per game in the country, the Wildcats are third in defending two-point shots. Tobe Awaka, Motiejus Krivas and Koa Peat each average at least two offensive rebounds, only adding to the challenge of containing Arizona near the rim.
Key Weakness: Although the Cats sport a respectable long-range percentage, only two teams hold a lower three-point attempt rate. Clearly, it's working out fine! Twos and free throws will do. But if Arizona falls behind in a matchup, the offense is thin on perimeter solutions after Brayden Burries.
Stars to Watch
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Illinois: Keaton Wagler
Tournament Stats: 17.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 44.0 3P%
The freshman from Kansas has propelled Illinois to this stage, assembling a surprise All-American campaign and being a steady hand in March Madness. Wagler put up 25 points in the Elite Eight triumph over Iowa. He's an efficient, high-volume perimeter shooter and the Illini's top on-ball playmaker.
Connecticut: Tarris Reed Jr.
Tournament Stats: 21.8 PPG, 13.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.3 BPG, 60.0 FG%
Karaban hit a clutch three, and Mullins nailed the winner in the Elite Eight, but make no mistake, why UConn has advanced this far: Reed. Following an unreal 31-point, 27-rebound day in the opener, he's continued to dominate the paint with a double-double on UCLA, then 20 and 26 points against Michigan State and Duke, respectively. Fun aside? Reed is a transfer from Michigan.
Michigan: Yaxel Lendeborg
Tournament Stats: 21.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 4.3 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 50.0 3P%
This is Lendeborg's first season at Michigan after transferring from UAB—and passing up the NBA draft—and he's been sensational. A first-team All-American, Lendeborg just does everything well. He scores with perimeter range, creates as a passer and provides strong defensive effort and versatility.
Arizona: Brayden Burries
Tournament Stats: 17.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, 68.4 3P%
Another star freshman, Burries has elevated his game in the postseason. And, no, that three-point percentage is not a misprint. Burries has knocked down 13-of-19 triples to help Arizona secure its Final Four ticket. He, like Wagler, will probably be a lottery pick in the 2026 NBA draft.
Top Storylines
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Big Ten's Duo
No matter what happens in the semifinals, the Big Ten is celebrating a pair of Final Four qualifiers for the first time in 11 years. The ideal scenario for the league is both Illinois and Michigan win their semifinals, setting up an All-Big Ten championship matchup—in Indianapolis, mind you.
UConn's Drive for Dynasty
After winning back-to-back national titles in 2023 and 2024, the ol' D-word followed the second crown. Semantics of that conversation aside, a third championship in four seasons would be a heck of a run—and a seventh total for the program.
Arizona Aiming to End Drought
During a 20-year window from the mid-1980s to the 2000s, Arizona was among the best programs in the country. The school reached the Elite Eight in seven seasons, the Final Four in four years, the championship game twice and won a title in 1997. Not since 2001 has Arizona been in the Final Four, though. Finally, the Cats have an opportunity to reclaim the throne.
Final Four Predictions
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Illinois vs. Connecticut
David Kenyon: UConn
Kerry Miller: UConn
Joel Reuter: Illinois
Michigan vs. Arizona
David Kenyon: Arizona
Kerry Miller: Arizona
Joel Reuter: Michigan
Picks for the national championship from B/R's college basketball staff will be included in a preview for the title game.
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