Teams on Upset Alert in Day 4 of 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament

After four double-digit seeds advanced on the opening Thursday of the NCAA tournament, it was virtually chalk on Friday, with the only mild upsets being a pair of No. 9 seeds advancing past No. 8 seeds.

That sets up a chalky Sunday that is lacking in mid-major upset potential, but there are some lower-seeded major conference teams capable of sending championship hopefuls packing before the opening weekend comes to a close.

We've highlighted four teams that are on upset alert heading into their respective second-round matchups on Sunday, and what they'll need to do to avoid getting sent home earlier than expected.

Connecticut Huskies (No. 2 Seed, East Region)

Ben Solomon/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

Opponent: No. 7 UCLA
Moneyline: Connecticut (-180)

It took a Herculean effort from center Tarris Reed Jr. for the UConn Huskies to avoid an upset at the hands of No. 15 seed Furman in the first round, and now they face an underseeded UCLA squad.

The 6'10", 260-pound Reed finished with 31 points and 27 rebounds, and the Huskies seized control late in an 82-71 victory where they looked far more beatable than their No. 2 seed might suggest.

They now face a UCLA squad that is comfortable matching their half-court, slow-paced style, with the standout guard trio of Donovan Dent, Trent Perry, and Skyy Clark leading the charge.

The Bruins beat Illinois, Purdue and Michigan State during Big Ten play, so they have a proven track record of toppling elite-level opponents.

Iowa State Cyclones (No. 2 Seed, Midwest Region)

Ed Zurga/Getty Images

Opponent: No. 7 Kentucky
Moneyline: Iowa State (-205)

Unlike many of the teams we've highlighted in our upset alert articles, the Iowa State Cyclones showed no signs of stumbling in the first round, cruising to a 108-74 victory over No. 15 seed Tennessee State.

However, they lost second-team All-American Joshua Jefferson just a few minutes into the first half when he rolled his ankle, landing awkwardly after a layup. He was helped off the court and returned later with crutches and a boot, and his status going forward is up in the air.

Killyan Toure (25 points, 11 rebounds) and Nate Heise (22 points) stepped up in his absence, and the Cyclones still have a high-powered scoring threat in sharp-shooter Milan Momcilovic (17.1 PPG, 130 3PT, 49.4 3PT%) along with veteran point guard Tamin Lipsey.

The Kentucky Wildcats pose a significantly more difficult test in the second round. Jefferson's status will be the X-factor for the Cyclones.

Purdue Boilermakers (No. 2 Seed, West Region)

Dilip Vishwanat/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

Opponent: No. 7 Miami (FL)
Moneyline: Purdue (-320)

The Boilermakers won the Big Ten tournament with four wins in four days, including a marquee victory over No. 1 seed Michigan in the championship game, but prior to that, they looked like a team trending in the wrong direction.

They lost four of their final six games during the regular season, and almost suffered a fifth loss to a sub-.500 Northwestern team. Simply put, this has never quite been the team many expected to be the best in the nation entering the 2025-26 season.

Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes came away with a lopsided 80-66 victory over Missouri in the first round. Their offense, which ranks No. 31 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency, can pose a problem for an inconsistent Boilermakers defense.

If Hurricanes point guard Tre Donaldson can keep Braden Smith from picking apart the Miami defense, the stage could be set for an upset.

Virginia Cavaliers (No. 3 Seed, Midwest Region)

Ben Solomon/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

Opponent: No. 6 Tennessee
Moneyline: Virginia (-102)

Looking simply at KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and tempo metrics, an evenly matched showdown awaits between No. 3 Virginia and No. 6 Tennessee.

Virginia: No. 28 offense, No. 16 defense, No. 271 tempo
Tennessee: No. 33 offense, No. 12 defense, No. 306 tempo

The Houston Cougars play a similar style of basketball, and the Volunteers handed them a 76-73 loss during non-conference play, so they are more than capable of sending the Cavaliers packing.

This might actually be the closest matchup on paper of any on the Sunday slate. It looks like a true coin toss, even in a No. 3 vs. No. 6 seed showdown.