Women's 2026 NCAA Tournament Sleeper Teams That Could Bust Brackets

The 2026 women's NCAA tournament feels more top-heavy than it has in years, with UConn entering as the biggest favorite since 2018, and UCLA boasting a roster with six projected WNBA draft picks. 

Beyond those contenders, the rest of the field seems far more susceptible to earlier exits than we've seen in a while. Just last year, only one double-digit seed won in the first round, and no team seeded higher than No. 5 reached the Sweet 16.

Upsets haven't defined the women's tournament, but that could change over the next month. So here are five teams outside the top three seed lines with the potential to reach the second weekend or make an even deeper run.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

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Brooklyn Meyer

Seed: No. 11 (Region 4)
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. South Carolina, 2. Iowa, 3. TCU, 4. Oklahoma

A double-digit seed hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since No. 10 South Dakota and No. 10 Creighton did it in 2022, and their formula was simple: control the tempo, take care of the ball and score efficiently from two.

If there's a team built in that mold this year, it's South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits, 27-6 out of the Summit League, are No. 240 nationally in pace, No. 28 in assist-to-turnover ratio and No. 3 in two-point percentage.

Everything runs through senior center Brooklyn Meyer. She's averaging 22.4 points per game—11th in the country—and shooting 63.7 percent on post-ups, a potential mismatch against a Washington frontcourt that has struggled against top post scorers.

Around her, South Dakota State spaces the floor with an elite shooting backcourt. Emilee Fox (47.7 percent on 4.3 attempts per game) and Madison Mathiowetz (40.1 percent on 4.1 attempts) are consistent scorers, with Mathiowetz adding 13.6 points per game as the team's No. 2 option.

There's postseason experience here, too. Last year, the Jackrabbits knocked off No. 7 Oklahoma State in the first round before falling to UConn.

Tennessee Lady Volunteers

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Janiah Barker

Seed: No. 10 (Region 3)
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. Texas, 2. Michigan, 3. Louisville, 4. West Virginia

Tennessee could make the Elite Eight or lose in the first round by 20 points—neither outcome would be shocking given the kind of season the Lady Vols have had. That volatility makes them the ultimate boom-or-bust team in this year's field.

Tennessee has way more talent than your usual No. 10 seed. Talaysia Cooper and Janiah Barker are two of the best athletes in the country, with the ability to take over games. 

The worry is Tennessee enters the tournament on a seven-game losing streak, and there may not be a fix for their lack of cohesion on either side of the ball. But with the pace they push and their high three-point volume, the Lady Vols are always a heater away from stealing a couple of games.

It won't be easy, but a potential path featuring NC State, Michigan, and either Alabama or Louisville is about as favorable a route to the Sweet 16 as they could hope for.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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Hannah Hidalgo

Seed: No. 6 (Region 1)
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. UConn, 2. Vanderbilt, 3. Ohio State, 4. North Carolina

The Fighting Irish have a true superstar in guard Hannah Hidalgo, who can take over a game in ways no one else in the country can. She's capable of scoring 30 points any night while making a case as the best defensive guard the sport has ever seen.  

Hidalgo enters the tournament averaging 25.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 5.0 steals over her last 10 games, leading Notre Dame to an 8-2 record over that stretch. 

Notre Dame also led the ACC in three-point shooting at 39.9 percent, thanks to Iyana Moore (44 percent on 1.1 attempts). 

Hidalgo has struggled from beyond the arc this season, but if she can catch fire for a couple of games like she has in the past, then look out.

Kentucky Wildcats

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Clara Strack

Seed: No. 5 (Region 3)
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. Texas, 2. Michigan, 3. Louisville, 4. West Virginia

Which version of Kentucky will show up in the tournament: the group once ranked No. 6 nationally, with wins over LSU, Oklahoma and Louisville, or the team that finished just 7-10 over its final 17 games?

If it's the former, there's a clear path to an Elite Eight or Final Four run. Kentucky brings size, experience and one of the best guard-post combinations in the field with Tonie Morgan and Clara Strack.

Morgan is second in the country in assists per game (8.2), while the 6'5" Strack is averaging 17.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks. 

Add in head coach Kenny Brooks, who led Virginia Tech to the 2023 Final Four, and the pieces are there for a deep March run if Kentucky finds its early-season form again.

Oklahoma Sooners

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Aaliyah Chavez

Seed: No. 4 (Region 4)
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. South Carolina, 2. Iowa, 3. TCU, 4. Oklahoma

Oklahoma may not be your typical sleeper, but a No. 4 seed hasn't knocked off a No. 1 seed since 2016. If the Sooners are going to change that, they'll likely have to go through South Carolina—who they already beat 94-82 in their lone matchup this season.

Oklahoma's identity starts with pace. No team in the country plays faster, ranking No. 1 nationally in Bart Torvik's adjusted tempo metric. They pair that speed with strong rebounding and elite efficiency around the rim, led by senior center Raegan Beers.

The Sooners' biggest question is shooting, particularly from star freshman Aaliyah Chavez. The Sooners live and die by the three, and it's shown in their losses, where they shot just 17.2 percent combined against UCLA, Texas, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. 

But when Oklahoma beat South Carolina in January, the shots were falling at a 39.1 percent clip, with Chavez scoring 26 points. They'll need that again to advance deep into the tournament.