Updated Win-Loss Predictions for Every NBA Team
When March Madness bursts onto the national sports stage, it means the NBA season is nearing its end. Sure enough, the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign can now be measured in weeks—not months.
As we barrel toward the end of the year, a few squads are surging or swooning unexpectedly. Injuries to key figures like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Edwards are throwing wrenches into the prediction works. Their absences, hopefully brief, have to affect their teams' outlooks.
Meanwhile, Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs continue to force upward record revisions with their dominant work.
As always, we'll consider recent play, the strength of the remaining schedule, and all the rest as we try to dial in our guesses for every NBA team's final record.
Atlanta Hawks: 45-37
1 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 46-36
Dec. 1 Prediction: 45-37
Feb. 16 Prediction: 39-43
Mar. 4 Prediction: 41-41
The All-Star break was good to the Atlanta Hawks, who seem to have realized they're not obligated to stay within a game or two of .500 at all times. This latest hot streak is approaching a full month in length, though it's only fair to note that Atlanta faced the Washington Wizards, Brooklyn Nets, and Milwaukee Bucks twice during that span.
Most of those were blowout victories, fueled by Jalen Johnson nearly averaging a triple-double and hitting over half of his threes since we made predictions two weeks ago.
Jonathan Kuminga has missed time with a knee issue, but Nickeil Alexander-Walker and CJ McCollum are both scoring efficiently enough to offset his absence.
Ten straight wins from Feb. 22 to Mar. 17 have the Hawks within striking distance of the No. 6 (or possibly even the No. 5) seed in the East. We'll see if they can keep this up with a closing slate a little lighter on pushovers.
Boston Celtics: 55-27
2 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 37-45
Dec. 1 Prediction: 36-46
Feb. 16 Prediction: 54-28
Mar. 4 Prediction: 56-26
Back-to-back road losses to the Spurs and Thunder on Mar. 10 and 12 tempered some of the enthusiasm surrounding Jayson Tatum's return, but don't expect the Boston Celtics to be all that concerned about those defeats. Tatum sat out against the Thunder and has only recently been freed up to play more than 30 minutes per game.
The overall trend line for Boston continues to point upward. Second on offense and sixth on D, the Celtics own the league's No. 3 net rating—and the vast majority of games that feed into those numbers came without their now-returned All-NBA first-teamer.
One point to monitor: Jaylen Brown shot just 23.8 percent in the half-dozen games since we tabbed Boston for 56 wins on Mar. 4. His 6.5 assists per game in that same span lead the team and help offset the cold shooting, but the Celtics will need him to pose a bigger threat from distance if he's off the ball more with Tatum in the fold.
Brooklyn Nets: 19-63
3 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 16-66
Dec. 1 Prediction: 17-65
Feb. 16 Prediction: 19-63
Mar. 4 Prediction: 19-63
The Brooklyn Nets have home games against the Sacramento Kings (Mar. 29), Washington Wizards (Apr. 5), and Indiana Pacers (Apr. 9). Other than that, it's hard to see any clear wins on the remaining schedule. If the Nets get all three of those, they'll hit 20 wins and prove the prediction we've been sticking to for months wrong.
It still feels risky to give Brooklyn more than two wins over the balance of the schedule.
Michael Porter Jr. is getting plenty of nights off, and the Nets are generally making sure almost nobody averages more than 25.0 minutes per game. Those are both good ways to ensure most lineups don't have any real punch—and that the ones with any juice at all only see the floor for short stretches.
Ziaire Williams has shot the ball well for most of the month and has canned 62.5 percent of his threes since we last made predictions. That probably means he'll see his minutes cut as the Nets try to maximize their lottery odds.
Charlotte Hornets: 44-38
4 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 29-53
Dec. 1 Prediction: 31-51
Feb. 16 Prediction: 45-37
Mar. 4 Prediction: 46-36
Losses to the Heat, Suns, and Spurs over the last couple of weeks hurt the odds of the Charlotte Hornets getting all the way to 46 wins. We will not apologize for getting caught up in the hype.
The Hornets' offense remains electrifying overall, but it was pedestrian during this recent stretch of mediocrity. The good news is that Charlotte's work on the other end remains solid. Up to 15th on the year and far better than that since the end of November, the Hornets' defensive rating is a hugely encouraging sign for anyone dreaming of a playoff trip via the Play-In.
Charlotte only has four road games left on its schedule, and one is in Brooklyn. Forty-six wins might be out of reach, but the Hornets can easily get to 44 or 45—particularly if the Celtics, Pistons, and Knicks (their last three opponents of the year) rest their key players ahead of the postseason.
Chicago Bulls: 31-51
5 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 38-44
Dec. 1 Prediction: 39-43
Feb. 16 Prediction: 32-50
Mar. 4 Prediction: 31-51
Road wins over the Suns and Warriors gave the Chicago Bulls a 3-2 mark across a five-game stretch to begin the month of March. That was a big deal for a team that lost every single game it played in February, but that brief period of respectability is an outlier.
Expect Chicago to play much more like the team that went 0-11 in February going forward.
Chicago actually posted a positive plus/minus in Josh Giddey's minutes during that 3-2 run, and he stood out for both the volume and efficiency of his contributions. While some other teams curb their stars' playing time, Giddey, with the benefit of an OT game against the Warriors, is averaging nearly 37.0 minutes per game this month.
The Bulls will probably rein him in soon, which will turn over control of the offense to Tre Jones and Rob Dillingham. That'll ensure Chicago won't bump its win total out of the low 30s.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 51-31
6 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 57-25
Dec. 1 Prediction: 51-31
Feb. 16 Prediction: 52-30
Mar. 4 Prediction: 52-30
It might be tough for the Cavs to manage the 52 wins we've been predicting for them, especially since they recently proved they could lose to the likes of the Dallas Mavericks (Mar. 15). Still, Cleveland's remaining schedule features just one team, the Los Angeles Lakers, that ranks among either conference's top four.
If the Cavs can't add at least another nine wins to their total, it'll be a concerning sign for the postseason.
James Harden's durability remains a marvel, as he leads the Cavs in games and minutes in March. Evan Mobley has also stayed healthy, and his continued struggles to hit from the outside could start to matter less now that Max Strus is finally back after missing the first four-plus months of the year.
Strus drilled six triples in his debut and could stretch the defense enough for Mobley to rediscover the forceful driving game that keyed his offensive breakout in 2024-25.
Dallas Mavericks: 26-56
7 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 42-40
Dec. 1 Prediction: 33-49
Feb. 16 Prediction: 26-56
Mar. 4 Prediction: 26-56
A 130-120 road win at Cleveland on Mar. 15 was easily the Dallas Mavericks' best win since they beat the Knicks in Madison Square Garden on Jan. 19, and Cooper Flagg was right in the middle of it.
The rookie wasn't technically the point guard because Ryan Nembhard started alongside him, but Flagg piled up a team-high 10 assists to go with 27 points while often playing center on the other end. Dallas continues to have no issue making tough positional demands of its cornerstone, and Flagg's handling of consistently difficult roles suggests it has been right to test him.
The Mavericks have no more games against the Wizards, Kings, Nets, Pacers, or Jazz, so it still seems reasonable to predict they'll only win another two or three games before the season ends.
Denver Nuggets: 49-33
8 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 53-29
Dec. 1 Prediction: 57-25
Feb. 16 Prediction: 49-33
Mar. 4 Prediction: 49-33
We're sticking with 49 wins for the Denver Nuggets, who dropped games to the Knicks, Thunder, and Lakers since we last prognosticated.
A remaining schedule that features two games against the Grizzlies, two against the Jazz, two against the Blazers, and one each versus the Warriors and Mavs should be enough to ensure a win total in the high 40s—even with the defense continuing to perform at a bottom-10 clip.
If the Nuggets take care of business against the tankers and injury-riddled middle class, and if they can snatch one or two wins from the tougher teams left on the schedule, 50 victories is still in play. Denver may need to push the pedal down a bit in order to stay among the West's top six. Phoenix is within a hot week of climbing out of the Play-In, which puts the Nuggets and Wolves on notice.
Peyton Watson's return from a hamstring injury comes at the right time for a Denver squad that needs to put a run together ahead of the playoffs.
Detroit Pistons: 56-26
9 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 45-37
Dec. 1 Prediction: 53-29
Feb. 16 Prediction: 60-22
Mar. 4 Prediction: 60-22
Even without Cade Cunningham, a loss to the Nets is unacceptable. That Mar. 7 defeat was part of a season-long four-game skid for the Detroit Pistons, whose defense apparently decided to check out for the month.
The Pistons are still second overall in defensive efficiency, but they've posted four games with a defensive rating above 120.0 in March, which is roughly the Sacramento Kings' full-season figure. Given the team's total reliance on Cunningham for shot creation, defensive lapses are basically death sentences on nights he doesn't play.
There may be a few more such scenarios. Cunningham left Detroit's Mar. 17 game against the Wizards with back spasms, and is now expected to miss "an extended period" of time with a collapsed lung.
Detroit may now be in danger of losing the top seed in the East, and that 60-win mark is now unrealistic.
Golden State Warriors: 40-42
10 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 47-35
Dec. 1 Prediction: 44-38
Feb. 16 Prediction: 44-38
Mar. 4 Prediction: 42-40
That sound you heard? That was the wheels falling completely off the Golden State Warriors' season over the last couple of weeks. Without Stephen Curry, who's now likely to miss a full two months with runner's knee, Golden State was scraping by on hustle and the occasional Brandin Podziemski heater.
In addition to Curry and Jimmy Butler being out, the Warriors have barely had Moses Moody this month, and Draymond Green's back is flaring up often enough to cost him time. Most nights, De'Anthony Melton, Podz, and Gui Santos are doing the heavy lifting on offense, which was in nobody's preseason plans.
Recent losses to the Jazz and Bulls illustrate the sheer lack of talent on the currently healthy roster.
A three-point loss to the Knicks on Mar. 15 dropped the Dubs to a season-worst three games under .500. With a brutal road trip stretching to Mar. 23, it'll be a miracle if they can get back to a break-even mark by season's end.
Houston Rockets: 50-32
11 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 52-30
Dec. 1 Prediction: 56-26
Feb. 16 Prediction: 53-29
Mar. 4 Prediction: 52-30
Houston alternated wins and losses for nearly three weeks starting in late February, and it'll have to do better than that to reach 50 wins.
It'll also have to figure out how to score at the ends of games.
The Rockets' 100-92 loss to the Lakers on Mar. 16 typified the team's season-long struggle to generate good looks, particularly in close games late. Los Angeles doubled Kevin Durant routinely in the fourth quarter, and the rest of the Rockets couldn't cobble together enough connective passing or capable shooting to capitalize on the gambit.
Durant coughed up six turnovers after halftime, and his quietly subpar passing out of double teams is just another reason for opponents to blitz him and dare other Houston players to do something with the ball.
Indiana Pacers: 16-66
12 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 34-48
Dec. 1 Prediction: 26-56
Feb. 16 Prediction: 20-62
Mar. 4 Prediction: 19-63
The Indiana Pacers set a new franchise record when they lost their 13th consecutive game on Mar. 15. The slide is now at 14 games, and there's no end to the streak in sight. Other than the Bulls on April 1 and the Nets on April 9, the remaining schedule is filled with teams that are still trying to win.
Indiana has the second-hardest remaining slate, and it's not just because it can't play itself.
At least Jarace Walker is using these meaningless games to put up some solid numbers. Though the Pacers are getting hammered in his minutes, the versatile forward is playing over 30.0 minutes per game and hitting 40.5 percent of his threes in March.
LA Clippers: 41-41
13 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 45-37
Dec. 1 Prediction: 37-45
Feb. 16 Prediction: 34-48
Mar. 4 Prediction: 40-42
The Clippers set an NBA record by reaching .500 after a 6-21 start. No team has ever made it back to break-even levels after falling that far below the mark in the same season. A resurgence like that deserves respect, especially since much of it came after trading away starters James Harden and Ivica Zubac at the deadline.
Kawhi Leonard is day-to-day with an ankle sprain, which will put extra pressure on Bennedict Mathurin, who's been a productive scorer despite running ice cold from deep in March.
Darius Garland has looked good of late, averaging 19.9 points in only 27.0 minutes while rediscovering his long-range shot this month. If he can stay on the floor, LA can weather Leonard's absence and perhaps even finish with a winning record.
Just to temper expectations, we'll go with one more victory than we predicted last time.
Los Angeles Lakers: 52-30
14 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 47-35
Dec. 1 Prediction: 50-32
Feb. 16 Prediction: 45-37
Mar. 4 Prediction: 45-37
Luka Dončić appears to be peaking, Austin Reaves is providing plenty of supplementary playmaking, and LeBron James' voluntary role reduction upon returning from injury seems to have created harmony across the roster.
After only tabbing them for 45 wins a couple of weeks ago, we have to give it up to the Lakers. No more focusing on the net rating that says they're about five wins worse than their record indicates. No more piling on the dearth of quality defenders. It's time to acknowledge that, for now, the operation is running as smoothly as it has all season.
The results—wins over the Knicks, Wolves, Nuggets, and Rockets—speak for themselves.
Memphis Grizzlies: 27-55
15 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 46-36
Dec. 1 Prediction: 38-44
Feb. 16 Prediction: 27-55
Mar. 4 Prediction: 28-54
If you'd placed a preseason bet on Rayan Rupert leading the Memphis Grizzlies in minutes for the better part of a month, well...two things.
First, seek help. That's a bet so niche as to suggest a real problem. And second, you would have made a lot of money.
Of Grizzlies players in the current rotation, Jaylen Wells is the only one who featured in the team's plans way back in October when something other than a tank-fest seemed plausible. Ty Jerome probably counts, too, but he missed the first three months of the year and is strictly an every-other-night presence as Memphis steers into the skid.
The Grizzlies have a narrow "lead" on Milwaukee for the title of "Worst Defense in March". Upcoming dates with Denver, Boston, Charlotte, Atlanta, and San Antonio make it hard to imagine Memphis' defensive numbers getting any better.
Miami Heat: 46-36
16 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 42-40
Dec. 1 Prediction: 49-33
Feb. 16 Prediction: 44-38
Mar. 4 Prediction: 45-37
Last time around, we talked about Bam Adebayo's hot streak coming out of the All-Star break. It turns out we didn't talk enough.
Adebayo's 83-point outburst against the Wizards on Mar. 10 has a lot to do with it, but the Heat's recent surge (seven straight wins from Feb. 28 to Mar. 12) stemmed largely from big offensive numbers. Over the last two weeks, Miami is fourth in scoring efficiency—a nice complement to a defense that ranks fifth in that same span and fourth in the league overall.
Norman Powell's missed time has hardly mattered, as Tyler Herro's hot shooting and the connective play of Pelle Larsson and Jaime Jaquez Jr. are doing more than enough to keep Miami's attack humming. Though enthusiasm about the Heat offense peaked early in the year when a screen-free, fast-paced attack was a major news item, this is easily the most effective they've been on that side of the floor all year.
Milwaukee Bucks: 35-47
17 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 42-40
Dec. 1 Prediction: 39-43
Feb. 16 Prediction: 32-50
Mar. 4 Prediction: 39-43
It turns out we overestimated Giannis Antetokounmpo's ability to elevate a roster this bad with a coach increasingly unlikely to return next season.
Since Giannis returned on March 2, the Bucks own a minus-4.6 net rating during his time on the floor. Though they improbably held down the fort while Antetokounmpo recovered from injury, it was always well understood that Milwaukee couldn't seriously compete without him. Now, the numbers suggest the Bucks aren't any good with him either.
It is decidedly not good news that Antetokounmpo is expected to miss yet another week with a hyperextended left knee.
We were too low in predicting only 32 wins a month ago, but we were also too high in forecasting almost 40 last time around. Let's split the difference.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49-33
18 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 55-27
Dec. 1 Prediction: 52-30
Feb. 16 Prediction: 52-30
Mar. 4 Prediction: 53-29
Minnesota lost four of five games from Mar. 7-15, falling by double digits in each defeat. That kind of skid has a way of forcing re-evaluation, even if the Wolves have made a habit of looking dead in the water several times a season for three years running.
Even more concerning: Anthony Edwards is going to miss 1-2 weeks due to right knee inflammation. The injury was clearly limiting him during the Wolves' rough stretch, and now an offense prone to sputtering could spend at least half of its remaining games without its top threat.
The numbers say Minnesota is only marginally worse with Edwards off the floor (plus-3.1 net rating) than it is with him on (plus-3.4), but there's no case to be made that this is a positive development for its final record or playoff seeding.
New Orleans Pelicans: 28-54
19 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 27-55
Dec. 1 Prediction: 25-57
Feb. 16 Prediction: 27-55
Mar. 4 Prediction: 28-54
The Pelicans have a winning record since Feb. 6 and might get frisky enough to crack 30 wins as some of their better opponents start strategically resting stars before the playoffs. That could help mitigate a schedule light on gimme wins down the stretch. Sacramento on April 3 and Utah on April 7 are the only certain wins left on the slate.
It's worth noting that the Pels have only one victory against a non-tanker this month, a 122-111 success against the reeling Raptors on Mar. 11.
Dejounte Murray has been productive since returning from his long layoff, joining Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson to create a trio of 20-point scorers this month. Can that group's efficient scoring hold up against tougher competition and a rugged road stretch (at New York, Detroit, and Toronto) to close out March?
While it's tempting to give the Pels a bump, 28 still feels like the right number given the fourth-hardest remaining schedule in the league.
New York Knicks: 53-29
20 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 53-29
Dec. 1 Prediction: 51-31
Feb. 16 Prediction: 53-29
Mar. 4 Prediction: 53-29
We owe the Knicks some gratitude for fluctuating less in these predictions than any other team. Though New York has lost a little momentum since peaking with an eight-game winning streak across late January and early February, nothing about its profile indicates a real slide is coming.
Over the last couple of weeks, the Knicks have been a respectable 13th on offense while the mid-year defensive renaissance continues. Despite having clear targets for opponents to attack in Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson, New York has the No. 6 defense in March. They have gone all the way up to ninth overall for the season.
On offense, OG Anunoby is putting up nearly 20.0 points per game while being a couple of free throws away from a 50/40/90 shooting split in March. His surge has helped offset a mostly cold outside shooting month from the rest of the roster.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18
21 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 62-20
Dec. 1 Prediction: 71-11
Feb. 16 Prediction: 62-20
Mar. 4 Prediction: 62-20
The Thunder's only loss since the break came at Detroit on Feb. 25, an impressive run given the time Jalen Williams and several others have missed due to injury.
OKC is getting healthier, and the consistent impacts made by Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Chet Holmgren are lightening the load on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander while allowing defensive-first options like Cason Wallace and Lu Dort to ratchet up the intensity. Jared McCain has been on a heater since arriving from the Sixers, though he and Jaylin Williams are the only Thunder players consistently hitting threes lately.
J-Dub can take his time. For the increasingly healthy Thunder, an All-NBA wing is a luxury item. This team is dominant enough on defense to cruise toward a mid-60s win total without much fuss.
Orlando Magic: 46-36
22 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 49-33
Dec. 1 Prediction: 51-31
Feb. 16 Prediction: 45-37
Mar. 4 Prediction: 45-37
It's not a coincidence that the Orlando Magic found themselves during one of Jalen Suggs' longest stretches of consecutive games this season. Orlando has been at its best with Suggs setting the defensive tone all year, posting a plus-7.6 net rating whenever he's been on the floor.
They'll need a ton of help from Cleveland, but the Magic are nearly within striking distance of the East's No. 4 seed. It'd be remarkable if, after rating as one of the league's most disappointing teams all year, the Magic wound up securing the top-four spot many believed was realistic before the season started. At the very least, entering the playoffs as the East's fifth seed should be the expectation.
Paolo Banchero came out of the All-Star break playing his best ball on both ends and has mostly held that form, a big key for a Magic team that remains without Anthony Black and Franz Wagner. In all, it's now easier to be optimistic about Orlando than it has been at most points of this topsy-turvy season.
Philadelphia 76ers: 42-40
23 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 43-39
Dec. 1 Prediction: 41-41
Feb. 16 Prediction: 44-38
Mar. 4 Prediction: 44-38
Cameron Payne, Dominick Barlow, Quentin Grimes, Trendon Watford, and Adem Bona are the Philadelphia 76ers' leaders in games played this month, which provides a good sense of just how diminished the roster has become.
Injuries to Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, plus Paul George's suspension and the three games VJ Edgecombe missed with a lumbar contusion, are forcing deep-bench options and players who weren't even on the roster two months ago into major roles.
Credit the beleaguered Sixers for notching wins against the likes of Memphis, Brooklyn, and Portland over the last week or so, but don't expect a winning record between now and the season finale on April 12. If Philadelphia breaks even over the final four weeks of the year, it'll be quite an achievement.
Phoenix Suns: 45-37
24 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 26-56
Dec. 1 Prediction: 35-47
Feb. 16 Prediction: 47-35
Mar. 4 Prediction: 45-37
The Suns' offense rates among the league's top 10 over the past two weeks, which helped them run up a 5-3 mark in the first eight games of March. Seeing the Kings, Bull, Pelicans, and Pacers during that stretch certainly helped, but so did 30.9 points per game from Devin Booker.
Rookie Rasheer Fleming is now a more significant piece of the rotation than he's been at any point this season, and his hot streak from long range gives Phoenix an intriguing dimension up front. Khaman Maluach is also now seeing some action, though he hasn't wowed anyone by averaging 3.7 points and 3.4 rebounds in 13.9 March minutes per game.
The Suns are most likely locked into the No. 7 spot in the West and might give a game or two away as they rest key players down the stretch. If Minnesota falters, maybe that changes. Odds are, Phoenix will come close to splitting wins and losses in its closing stretch, which should get it to 45 wins rather easily.
Portland Trail Blazers: 39-43
25 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 43-39
Dec. 1 Prediction: 40-42
Feb. 16 Prediction: 41-41
Mar. 4 Prediction: 39-43
The Blazers have five games left against tanking teams, so getting to 38 wins shouldn't be a problem. Whether they move past that and into the 40s will depend on the continued strong play of Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III inside.
Those two have been overwhelming forces this month, combining to average about 25 points and 22 rebounds per game. Those numbers may not hold, but as long as Clingan and Williams continue to anchor the middle, Portland's floor should remain high. Scoot Henderson joins Jerami Grant and Jrue Holiday among Blazers hitting at least 40.0 percent of their threes in March, accuracy that helps offset the shooting slumps of starting forwards Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara.
Avdija, in particular, hasn't looked like himself since back troubles flared up several weeks ago. Without him drawing heaps of fouls and running the offense, the Blazers struggle to produce enough points to win when the defense isn't dominant—which, fortunately, it has been over the past two weeks.
Sacramento Kings: 21-61
26 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 33-49
Dec. 1 Prediction: 25-57
Feb. 16 Prediction: 17-65
Mar. 4 Prediction: 18-64
Quite a hot streak from the Sacramento Kings lately, huh?
They won four games in five tries from Mar. 8 to Mar. 15, which put them right on the total of 18 we predicted last time around. Realistically, there's not a lot else Sacramento can do to sabotage itself, unless it shuts down DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk in short order.
Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray and Zach LaVine's seasons ended a while ago.
Those recent victories owed mostly to defense, as the Kings held the Bulls, Pacers, Clippers, and Jazz under 110.0 points per 100 possessions. It's hard to overstate how unlikely a defense-led run of success is for this Kings team, which ranks 28th on that end for the year.
Assuming opponent shooting luck regresses to the mean, Sacramento shouldn't be expected to win more than two or three games over the rest of the year. But the Kings have already banked enough wins to beat our prediction and climb into the 20s.
San Antonio Spurs: 60-22
27 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 41-41
Dec. 1 Prediction: 48-34
Feb. 16 Prediction: 48-34
Mar. 4 Prediction: 58-24
A single-digit slip against the Nuggets on Mar. 14 ended the Spurs' five-game winning streak, but it was just the team's second loss since the last day of January. As a result of that protracted success, San Antonio only has to maintain its current winning percentage to reach 60 wins.
Considering the Spurs have won more often lately than their full-season clip of 73 percent, it's pretty easy to see them getting to a mark that high.
Stephon Castle is hitting over 40.0 percent of his threes in March, and Dylan Harper has been even hotter than that. If those two can convert their long-range tries at merely league-average rates going forward, San Antonio might not lose another game.
San Antonio's defense is going to be overwhelming on a nightly basis. Supplement that with decent shooting from role players and a transition attack that only gets more threatening by the day, and the Spurs are as hard to beat as anyone.
Toronto Raptors: 47-35
28 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 41-41
Dec. 1 Prediction: 48-34
Feb. 16 Prediction: 48-34
Mar. 4 Prediction: 49-33
A Mar. 15 win over the Pistons felt like a righting of the ship for a Toronto Raptors squad that played .500 ball over the previous two months.
The Raptors' defense held up its end in that win, the team's best in weeks, and Jakob Poeltl absolutely dominated the glass with nine of his 18 boards coming on the offensive end. That success on D and on the glass typically means Toronto only needs one big scoring night to win. It got three against Detroit as Brandon Ingram put up 34 points, RJ Barrett chipped in 27, and Poeltl put-backed his way to 21.
A five-game road trip starting Mar. 18 will go a long way toward determining how high into the 40s Toronto's win total could climb. We're knocking the figure down a tad in light of the Raptors' 1-4 start to March, but that Pistons win could suggest a run is coming.
Utah Jazz: 22-60
29 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 17-65
Dec. 1 Prediction: 24-58
Feb. 16 Prediction: 20-62
Mar. 4 Prediction: 20-62
Someone named Bez Mbeng played 32 minutes in the Jazz's Mar. 15 loss to the Kings, which should give you a sense of Utah's current competitive urgency levels. Cody Williams also logged a whopping 38 minutes against Sacramento, which led to a career-high 34 points.
The Jazz are already at our predicted total of 20 victories, and they still have games left against the Wizards and Grizzlies. Those should probably be viewed as coin-flip propositions, but no other opponents on the remaining schedule fall into the tanking class. That puts the Jazz's absolute maximum win total at 22, which is where we're charitably landing.
Washington Wizards: 18-64
30 of 30
Preseason Prediction: 19-63
Dec. 1 Prediction: 18-64
Feb. 16 Prediction: 17-65
Mar. 4 Prediction: 18-64
Washington is the only tanker besides Indiana that seems to understand the assignment. With a win total stuck on 16 since Feb. 20, the Wizards are doing everything they can to ensure they finish with a bottom-four record.
If you had to guess who leads the team in minutes per game this month, Leaky Black probably wouldn't spring to mind. He hasn't suited up every night, but he has a narrow per-game edge on Will Riley and Julian Reese.
If you're looking for promising long-term signs, Bub Carrington's shooting stands out. His first seven games of March featured just 9.1 points per game, but he hit 53.3 percent of his shots from the field and exactly 50.0 percent of his threes. That's a big deal for a player who spent much of the season with a field-goal percentage south of 40.0 percent.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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