Stock Watch for 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams
The 2025-26 men's college basketball regular season is over and mid-major conference tournaments are already in full swing, but there is still a lot to be sorted out before the 68-team NCAA tournament field is announced on Sunday.
For teams on the bubble, the coming days will make or break their season, assuming they fall short of claiming the automatic bid that comes with winning a conference tournament.
Ahead is a full breakdown of the current bubble situation, with a rundown of how things look in the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten and SEC, as well as a general overview of the mid-major picture.
A lot can still change, but this provides a snapshot of where things stand across men's college basketball with less than a week until Selection Sunday.
ACC Bubble Teams
1 of 6
Safely in Projected Field (6): Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami, Clemson
NC State Wolfpack (19-12, 10-8 in ACC, NET: 35)
Quad Breakdown: 5-7 vs. Q1, 6-4 vs. Q2, 4-0 vs. Q3, 4-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at Notre Dame, Loss vs. Duke, Loss vs. Stanford
As recently as Feb. 7, the Wolfpack were 18-6 with four Quad 1 wins and what looked like a guaranteed spot in the NCAA tournament field. They have now dropped squarely onto the bubble after a 1-6 finish, which included falling to fellow bubble team Stanford on Saturday in the regular-season finale.
Stock: Down
SMU Mustangs (19-12, 8-10 in ACC, NET: 39)
Quad Breakdown: 4-8 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2, 5-0 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at Stanford, Loss vs. Miami, Loss at Florida State
The Mustangs dropped four straight to close out the regular season, including a 91-78 loss on Saturday to a Florida State team outside the projected NCAA tournament field. They don't have a truly bad loss on their resume, but they are also lacking a headlining victory to offset their 12 total losses and shaky finish.
Stock: Down
Virginia Tech Hokies (19-12, 8-10 in ACC, NET: 53)
Quad Breakdown: 2-10 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2, 4-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at North Carolina, Win vs. Boston College, Loss at Virginia
The Hokies probably need to win multiple games in the ACC tournament to have a chance at an at-large bid, and that will mean knocking off Wake Forest and Clemson. Considering they have not won consecutive games since Jan. 21 and lost to the Tigers by 10 points earlier this year, that will be a tall order.
Stock: Holding
Stanford Cardinal (20-11, 9-9 in ACC, NET: 59)
Quad Breakdown: 5-6 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2, 4-3 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. SMU, Win at Notre Dame, Win at NC State
After a 2-7 stretch, Stanford closed out the regular season by winning four straight, with victories over bubble competitors SMU and NC State during that span. Freshman Ebuka Okorie is averaging 26.2 points and 4.3 assists over his last 10 games, and he is the type of player who could put his team on his back in the condensed environment of a conference tournament.
Stock: Up
California Golden Bears (21-10, 9-9 in ACC, NET: 65)
Quad Breakdown: 4-6 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, 6-1 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Pitt, Win at Georgia Tech, Loss at Wake Forest
Hunting for their first NCAA tournament berth in a decade, the Golden Bears have a fringe resume, and the committee could ding them for losing to Duke, Virginia and Louisville by a combined 59 points. They will need to beat No. 8 seed Florida State on Wednesday to stay alive, and could clinch their spot with a win over Duke on Thursday.
Stock: Holding
Big 12 Bubble Teams
2 of 6
Safely in Projected Field (7): Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, TCU
UCF Knights (20-10, 9-9 in Big 12, NET: 51)
Quad Breakdown: 5-6 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 4-1 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Baylor, Loss vs. Oklahoma State, Loss at West Virginia
Picked to finish 12th in the Big 12 preseason media poll, the Knights have been a great story as they search for just their second NCAA tournament berth in the last 20 years. Three straight losses to non-tournament teams on the heels of a big road win against BYU has moved them to the bubble conversation, and an early exit in the Big 12 tournament would further blur their outlook.
Stock: Down
Cincinnati Bearcats (17-14, 9-9 in Big 12, NET: 46)
Quad Breakdown: 3-11 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 2-0 vs. Q3, 7-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Oklahoma State, Win vs. BYU, Loss at TCU
A home win over Iowa State and a road victory against Kansas continue to prop up the Bearcats case, but they also have a Quad 4 loss to Eastern Michigan as a black eye on their resume. Assuming they take care of business against Utah on Tuesday, they will go head-to-head with fellow Big 12 bubble team UCF on Wednesday in what could be a must-win game for Cincinnati.
Stock: Holding
Big East Bubble Teams
3 of 6
Safely in Projected Field (3): UConn, St. John's, Villanova
Seton Hall Pirates (20-11, 10-10 in Big East, NET: 56)
Quad Breakdown: 1-5 in Q1, 6-4 in Q2, 7-2 in Q3, 6-0 in Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at UConn, Win at Xavier, Loss vs. St. John's
Is a single Quad 1 win enough for the Pirates to be an at-large candidate? Knocking off Creighton and St. John's to earn a spot in the Big East championship game might be their only viable path to the field other than the automatic bid. Friday night's 72-65 loss at home against St. John's was a real missed opportunity for a resume boost.
Stock: Holding
Big Ten Bubble Teams
4 of 6
Safely in Projected Field (8): Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin, UCLA, Ohio State
Iowa Hawkeyes (20-11, 10-10 in Big Ten, NET: 25)
Quad Breakdown: 4-9 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at Penn State, Loss vs. Michigan, Loss at Nebraska
A 2-6 record over their final eight games, including three straight losses to close out the regular season, put the Hawkeyes in a less comfortable position than their No. 25 NET ranking might suggest. They could move to the wrong side of the bubble if they lose their Big Ten tournament opener to the winner of Oregon vs. Maryland, otherwise they remain a safe bet for an at-large bid.
Stock: Down
Indiana Hoosiers (18-13, 9-11 in Big Ten, NET: 37)
Quad Breakdown: 3-11 in Q1, 3-2 in Q2, 5-0 in Q3, 7-0 in Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Michigan State, Loss vs. Minnesota, Loss at Ohio State
Saturday's loss to Ohio State was a major blow to the Hoosiers tournament outlook, and continued their downward trend as they finished the regular season with a 1-5 record in their final six games. They will be the 10th if the Big Ten gets 10 bids, but they might need multiple wins in the conference tournament.
Stock: Down
SEC Bubble Teams
5 of 6
Safely in Projected Field (8): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri
Auburn Tigers (16-15, 7-11 in SEC, NET: 38)
Quad Breakdown: 4-12 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Ole Miss, Win vs. LSU, Loss at Alabama
Despite that eyesore of an overall record, the Tigers are still alive in the at-large conversation thanks to wins over Florida, St. John's and Arkansas before the calendar flipped to February. However, a 2-8 record in their last 10 games is difficult to ignore. Does an impressive strength of schedule really matter if you lose 12 Quad 1 games?
Stock: Down
Texas Longhorns (18-13, 9-9 in SEC, NET: 41)
Quad Breakdown: 6-9 vs. Q1, 1-3 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at Texas A&M, Loss at Arkansas, Loss vs. Oklahoma
The Longhorns were comfortably in the projected field after a road win against Texas A&M on Feb. 28, but a pair of losses to close out the regular season has put them on far shakier ground. Their six Quad 1 wins will be difficult to exclude from the field, but they can't afford an early exit in the SEC tournament.
Stock: Holding
Mid-Major Bubble Teams
6 of 6
Safely in Projected Field: Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, Utah State, Saint Louis, Miami (Ohio), Santa Clara
VCU Rams (24-7, 15-3 in A-10, NET: 44)
Quad Breakdown: 2-5 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 10-0 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Fordham, Win vs. George Mason, Win at Dayton
The Rams are the best hope the A-10 has to avoid being a one-bid league for the third time in the last four years, and their resume includes Quad 1 wins over South Florida and Dayton, as well as a neutral site victory over Virginia Tech. That said, they might need to reach the A-10 championship game against Saint Louis or Dayton to have a shot at an at-large bid.
Stock: Holding
New Mexico Lobos (22-9, 13-7 in MWC, NET: 45)
Quad Breakdown: 2-6 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2, 4-2 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. San Diego State, Loss vs. Colorado State, Loss at Utah State
After a 9-2 start to conference play, the Lobos went 4-5 over their final nine games and watched their NCAA tournament status steadily erode along the way. Head-to-head victories over VCU and Santa Clara are an interesting data point in the bubble conversation, though a pair of Quad 3 losses also drags down their overall body of work.
Stock: Down
San Diego State Aztecs (20-10, 14-6 in MWC, NET: 47)
Quad Breakdown: 2-7 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 6-1 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at New Mexico, Loss at Boise State, Win vs. UNLV
The Aztecs are 2-4 over their last six games, including road losses to New Mexico and Boise State to further complicate the Mountain West bubble picture. They did beat both of those teams at home earlier in the year, but those also stand as their only potential victories over teams headed for the NCAA tournament.
Stock: Down
Boise State Broncos (20-11, 12-8 in MWC, NET: 57)
Quad Breakdown: 2-6 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2, 8-1 vs. Q3, 3-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at Fresno State, Win vs. San Diego State, Win at Colorado State
While several other Mountain West bubble teams have been trending in the wrong direction, the Broncos have ripped off five straight victories to claw back into the NCAA tournament picture. A win over San Jose State on Wednesday would set up a quarterfinals matchup with New Mexico in what could amount to an elimination game.
Stock: Up
South Florida Bulls (23-8, 15-3 in American, NET: 49)
Quad Breakdown: 2-2 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 6-3 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Tulane, Win at Memphis, Win vs. Charlotte
With nine straight wins and a NET ranking inside the top 50, the Bulls have quietly put together a strong at-large case, and the latest Bracket Matrix has them as the top No. 12 seed. If they make it to the conference title game and lose to a good Tulsa team that sits No. 50 in the NET rankings, they might be able to sneak out an at-large bid.
Stock: Up
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