The Argument For Every Legit 2026 NBA MVP Candidate
The 2025-26 NBA MVP race feels a little less certain than in the last few years.
But are there really more deserving candidates than most years, or is this all just bracing for potential exclusions as multiple elites move closer toward not reaching the required 65-game threshold?
Honestly, it feels like a little of both. There are enough surprise squads to think their top players could do well with the more narrative-based voters. And then you have the problematically large absence-counters attached to stat-sheet-overstuffers like Nikola Jokić and Victor Wembanyama that threaten to disqualify them from the race before they reach the finish line.
As things stand, though, this seems like it could be anywhere from a two- to a six-player race with a handful of down-ballot candidates on the outer reaches of the conversation.
We'll spotlight the entire lot here, though we're only presenting the full cases for the six players who have, in our eyes, relatively realistic chances of taking home the hardware.
The Almost-Doesn't-Count Near-Misses
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The most generous observers of the MVP race might include the names below, but there are nitpicky reasons to think none will seriously factor into the actual award voting.
Still, they've earned a quick shot for what they've accomplished so far.
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
If the Knicks had taken complete control of the seemingly wide-open Eastern Conference, Brunson might cast a larger shadow here. But since they've been more good than great, it puts more pressure on his individual numbers to drive the vote. His stats are really good (27 points and 6.1 assists), but analytically inclined voters will spot superior candidates elsewhere.
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Edwards should get strong consideration for All-NBA first team, and for some, maybe that's reason enough to bump him up from this tier. But for us, he's hurt by Minnesota being more good than great (sixth in the West), since he'd need more than gaudy (and efficient) scoring totals to take the statistical-based vote.
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
Leonard looks like he's back to rubbing elbows with his best-on-the-planet peers again, but two things are working against him. First, his latest bout with the injury bug kept his candidacy from forming until later than most. And second—and most problematic—L.A.'s trade deadline teardown might have him looking up at the field when it comes to team success.
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers finding relative stability this season—while still highwire-acting around availability issues with Joel Embiid and Paul George—should give Maxey a decent boost from the voting populace. Still, his overall team success won't measure up with the top candidates, and he doesn't quite have the individual numbers to compensate.
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
While Mitchell continues to pave paths toward personal elevation (like his career-highs in points and three-point makes), he'll still get dinged a bit by Cleveland's half-step backward. If he finds another gear and manages to net 30 points per night on 50/40/90 shooting, maybe none of that matters, but all of those boxes are unchecked.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Consensus MVP odds: -150
Gilgeous-Alexander is the clubhouse leader to reclaim the award he captured for the first time last season.
Even with the Thunder slowing down considerably from their scorching 24-1 start, SGA still gets major voting props for being clearly the best player on arguably the best team. Detroit has a slight edge in winning percentage, but OKC is once again trouncing everyone in net rating.
While Gilgeous-Alexander can't afford for his abdominal injury to linger much longer, that's sort of it when it comes to concerns. There's just no way to knock 31.8 points on 55.4 percent shooting (39 percent from the perimeter) or his better than 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio (6.4 against 2.1 per outing).
Shifting the conversation over to advanced metrics really doesn't change much. He loses a couple of those categories to his top competitor, Nikola Jokić, but SGA is also the high man in estimated plus/minus, overall win shares and offensive win shares.
If Jokić stays upright, and Oklahoma City continues to look (relatively) mortal, maybe this is headed for a photo finish. But if Jokić falls short of the 65-game cutoff, Gilgeous-Alexander has a non-zero chance of being the unanimous choice.
*Consensus odds via Action Network.
Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
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Consensus MVP odds: +310
If voters left their choices to a blind-resume analysis, Jokić might run away with this award.
There are other players posting huge numbers in this offense-oriented era, but his stats still have a tier of excellence all to themselves. He's not only averaging a triple-double for the second consecutive season, he's doing so while leading the league in both rebounds (12.4) and assists (10.6).
Tack on his 58.4 field-goal percentage and 40.6 percent splash rate from three, and you're essentially looking at unprecedented dominance. And, honestly, that essentially qualifier isn't really necessary. His formula-breaking 34.2 player efficiency rating is the best in NBA history, and the only other player ever to clear even 32.5 is...well, him in 2021-22.
He just has two knocks against him. First is the games-missed counter, which shows no margin for error. If he misses two more games, he's ineligible for all end-of-season awards. Second is the fact that Denver looks more good than great—and hasn't even been good of late (6-8 over its last 14 games).
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
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Consensus MVP odds: +500
While we'll highlight more than three candidates here, Cunningham might mark the cutoff for truly legitimate ones. That's how oddsmakers see it, at least, and straw-poll voters don't really disagree. The recent roundup from ESPN's Tim Bontemps showed Cunningham collecting a single first-place vote and being the only player not named Gilgeous-Alexander or Jokić to collect more than 75 total votes (93).
It feels funny (and a shade unfair) to say that Cunningham's per-game contributions aren't really fueling his candidacy, considering they're wholly legit (25.7 points, 9.7 assists and 5.7 rebounds). But stack his stats up against those of the two favorites in front of him, and it's just hard to find a reason why folks would fall on his side.
His chances, then, really hinge on two things. First, is the voters' recognition of the Motor City's meteoric rise. This was a 44-win sixth seed last season and a 68-loss dumpster fire the year before. Now, it's a full-fledged juggernaut with this season's highest winning percentage (.759, third-best in franchise history).
Second, again, is that missed-games counter. With Jokić uncomfortably close to that 65-game disqualifier, and Gilgeous-Alexander currently hurt, the door is clearly cracked for someone to potentially take advantage. Cunningham, easily the brightest star on the East's No. 1 seed, is best positioned to do just that.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
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Consensus MVP odds: +2500
While oddsmakers are clearly skeptical of Wembanyama's chances, those straw-poll voters can see a case. Only three players earned multiple first-place votes: Gilgeous-Alexander (78), Jokić (18) and the Alamo City's resident alien (three).
His dominance, naturally, feels the most otherworldly. He's the most feared paint protector in the profession (on course for a third blocks title in his third NBA go-round) and a 24-plus-point scorer who can shred nets from distance or Nerf-hoop-hammer everything in arm's reach of the basket. (And, remember, his arm's reach to an entirely different dimension than most.)
With 13 games missed already, injuries threaten to dismantle his argument. Still, it's a compelling one if he can stay healthy. Should the Spurs manage to swipe the No. 1 seed away from the defending champion Thunder, maybe Wemby can surge to an MVP finish just as Joel Embiid did a few years back.
Wembanyama is also quietly building a case for being the best two-way player on the planet. The only players with estimated plus/minuses in the 95th percentile or better on both ends of the floor are him and SGA. And it's impossible for an MVP candidate to find better statistical company to keep.
Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers
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Consensus MVP odds: +3000
Does Dončić get a bump from oddsmakers by virtue of being the best player on the NBA's most glamorous team? It's certainly possible.
The Lakers grade out as pretty average by both traditional and advanced measures, and his—how can we put this politely?—defensive generosity can appear close to an automatic disqualifier.
But boy does this guy know how to control the offensive end of the court. He has great size for a lead guard (6'8", 230 lbs) and absolutely every ability needed to take full advantage of that. He's a three-level bucket with scoring-title-level output (32.8 points a night, best in the Association) and some of the most creative on-ball creation you'll find.
"He's an engine that's fully on," Lakers coach JJ Redick told reporters earlier this season. "And he likes to create out there, and that's a part of what makes him a great player. ... Not to say it doesn't test your patience at times, but you have to be willing to live with some of the stuff that he tries, because more often than not, you're going to get a great result."
L.A.'s offense loses 6.3 points per 100 possessions when Dončić needs a breather, essentially reverting from being the New York Knicks to the New Orleans Pelicans. That kind of impact is incredibly valuable, even if those defensive deficiencies subtract from it a bit.
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
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Consensus MVP odds: +4500
Bump back from Brown, and the next player's MVP odds tumble to +10000 (Donovan Mitchell). So, this feels like a reasonable place to stop, even if the viability of Brown's candidacy is sure to spark some fierce debates.
Because there are definitely ways to pick apart his MVP campaign, and you don't have to get especially nitpicky to do it. For all of the production progress he's made in the absence of Jayson Tatum, it's hard to paint Brown as the league's most valuable player when his team has fared 8.1 points better per 100 possessions without him.
So, he's not going to sway any by-the-numbers voters. Not even while simultaneously obliterating his previous-high in points (29.2, was 26.6) and posting the third-highest field-goal percentage of his career (48.4). He needs folks to care about the narrative, because his story is a great one.
The Celtics were seemingly destined for a gap year the second Tatum was lost to an Achilles tear last May. That's why they dramatically cut costs (by subtracting major contributors) over the offseason. But somehow, some way, the Celtics find themselves owning the East's No. 2 seed and the NBA's No. 3 net rating.
While the MVP might not sway this way much, award season is still routinely dominated by expectation-shatterers. And, save for maybe Cunningham's Pistons, no one has naysayers eating crow quite like Brown's Celtics. That stuff matters. It just probably won't matter enough for Brown to actually win this award.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com and Dunks & Threes.
