Ranking All 5 AL East Teams in MLB's Toughest Division

With an overall average of 85 wins and three playoff teams, there was no division like the AL East last year. This year, it looks even deeper.

Per a recent poll on the B/R app that got over 13,000 votes, there is a popular favorite to win the AL East going into 2026:

1. New York Yankees: 37 percent
2. Toronto Blue Jays: 24 percent
3. Boston Red Sox: 23 percent
4. Baltimore Orioles: 14 percent
5. Tampa Bay Rays: [Not an option]

Beyond being a case of Rays erasure, this pecking order is not a consensus. In fact, projection models basically indicate the AL East has no clear favorite.

The right thing to do, then, is properly rank all five teams based on each team's projections, ceiling, floor and chances of surviving the toughest division in MLB.

Ranking the AL East Teams, From Worst to First

5. Tampa Bay Rays

2025 Record: 77-85
2026 Win Projections

• DraftKings Over/Under: 77.5
• FanGraphs: 80
• Baseball Prospectus: 81.7

Ceiling: Pitching-fueled wild-card contender

The Rays are typically good at run prevention, and have a healthy Shane McClanahan as part of a rotation trio with Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot. The secret weapon is a bullpen that led MLB in strikeouts in the second half of 2025.

Floor: Offensively challenged cellar dweller

When looking at this lineup, Junior Caminero's name jumps off the page after his 45-homer breakout in 2025. But save for maybe Yandy Díaz, nobody else scares you. They'll likely miss Brandon Lowe, who hit 31 homers last season.

AL East Survival Rating: 3/10

The Rays just don't look equipped to improve on a dismal 20-32 record in the AL East last year. And while they're used to beating the odds, you can really feel how their payroll is half the size of the next-cheapest one in the division.

4. Baltimore Orioles

2025 Record: 75-87
2026 Win Projections

• DraftKings Over/Under: 85.5
• FanGraphs: 84
• Baseball Prospectus: 83.3

Ceiling: Offensive powerhouse with sneaky pitching

The Orioles ranked second in home runs and fourth in scoring in 2024. Adding Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward to a lineup anchored by Gunnar Henderson is basically a plan to get them back to that level.

On the pitching side, the Orioles are deeper than they get credit for. Trevor Rogers had an ERA in the 1.00s last year, and a healthy Kyle Bradish is typically good for an ERA in the 2.00s.

Floor: Hopeless hodgepodge of mismatched parts

The parts of Baltimore's lineup that aren't Alonso, Ward or Henderson had question marks even before Jordan Westburg came down with an elbow injury. A lot needs to go right, which means a lot could go wrong.

It's also OK to be wary that the Orioles didn't aim higher in their search for starting pitching over the winter. By settling with Chris Bassitt, Shane Baz and Zach Eflin, the team failed to secure an insurance policy for Rogers and Bradish.

AL East Survival Rating: 5/10

The Orioles are going to be screwed if their offensive revival doesn't work, especially in inter-division matchups in the AL East. Of the five teams in the division, they have the weakest pitching.

3. New York Yankees

2025 Record: 95-68
2026 Win Projections

• DraftKings Over/Under: 90.5
• FanGraphs: 87
• Baseball Prospectus: 88.7

Ceiling: The 2025 team, but better

From A(aron Judge) to (Jaz)Z (Chisholm Jr.), this is the same offense that led the majors in home runs and runs in 2025. More of the same may be in order, especially if Judge has a fourth MVP-caliber performance in him.

It's on the mound where things could be better. Gerrit Cole will be back from Tommy John surgery sometime in the first half. And after what he did last October, a full year of Cam Schlittler could be a sight to see.

Floor: An aging, underperforming mess

This is it. The mosquito in the amber for why the Yankees are in the middle here. They're just plain old in all the wrong places, with Judge, Cole and Giancarlo Stanton in their mid-30s.

Further, the bullpen could be a problem. It was leaky to the tune of a 4.37 ERA with Devin Williams and Luke Weaver in 2025. They're both gone now, and replacing them with nobody new was certainly a choice.

AL East Survival Rating: 7/10

A 27-25 record in the AL East ultimately kept the Yankees out of first place last year. And whereas they're ready for the same battles they fought in 2025, everyone else in the division prepped for 2026 expecting an even tougher challenge.

2. Boston Red Sox

2025 Record: 89-73
2026 Win Projections

• DraftKings Over/Under: 87.5
• FanGraphs: 86
• Baseball Prospectus: 82.0

Ceiling: Punishing pitching powerhouse

The Red Sox went all-in on run prevention over the winter, and to a satisfying degree. Garrett Crochet was already the best pitcher in the AL East, and now he has Ranger Suárez, Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo behind him.

Meanwhile, Boston projects as a top-five defensive team. That's a huge change from last year, and adding Caleb Durbin and Willson Contreras to the infield are big reasons why.

Floor: Loser of too many low-scoring games

The original plan for Boston's offseason was to get more powerful on offense, yet they got less powerful instead. As a result, they're the only team in the AL East without an obvious threat to hit 30 home runs.

That could make it tough to repeat last year's 32-20 record against the AL East. They won't get knocked around, but winning a bunch of 3-2 games in this division is a hard ask.

AL East Survival Rating: 7.5/10

This is another way of saying Boston's edge over New York in these rankings is a tiny one. It's essentially a choice between the former's floor and the latter's ceiling, and the bet here is on the floor.

1. Toronto Blue Jays

2025 Record: 94-68
2026 Win Projections

• DraftKings Over/Under: 88.5
• FanGraphs: 86
• Baseball Prospectus: 89.5

Ceiling: Still overwhelming, just in a different way

It really did feel like the better team lost the World Series last year. The Blue Jays were good at everything from beginning to end, and now they're set to mostly bring back the same team in 2026.

The loss of Bo Bichette looms large, but the cure for that is a better regular season from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (he only hit 23 homers last year!) and better run prevention. Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce can help with that, and there basically isn't a weak spot to be found in this defense.

Floor: Knocked for a loop by injuries and regression

The Blue Jays won six more games than they should have in 2025, so they could be due for some bad luck. And on an individual level, George Springer's age-35 revival will be a hard act to follow.

Also, the Blue Jays have already felt the sting of the injury bug. Shane Bieber's forearm issue is especially alarming, if for no other reason than it forces José Berríos back into a prominent role in the rotation.

AL East Survival Rating: 8/10

This arguably should be a 9/10, but that would be to totally discount the possibility that the Blue Jays had a fluke year in 2025. They probably didn't, but it was only the year before that when they finished last.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.