Fantasy Football 2015: 9th-Round Values to Target and Reaches to Avoid

Veterans on the rebound headline the ninth-round values to target and reaches to avoid for the 2015 fantasy football season. Victor Cruz's asking price is inflated thanks to a powerful New York Giants offense, while Philip Rivers and Larry Fitzgerald drift under the radar.

Championship rosters are fortified in the late-middle rounds while the other guy is worrying about filling out his starting lineup. Avoid reaching on team defenses until at least the 12th or 13th, and save kickers for the last round of your draft.

Fantasy owners found value in 2014's ninth round from rookies Mike Evans (101st overall in average draft position) and Kelvin Benjamin (104th), according to MyFantasyLeague.com. But other picks proved disappointing: Zach Ertz (100th), Darren Sproles (99th) and Dennis Pitta (98th).

Use the following list as a guide to where projected ninth-rounders will fall in 2015.

Guidelines

• Players listed are currently being drafted in the ninth round on average—the 96th through 107th positions overall.
• Only the standard-scoring, season-long, redraft format was considered when compiling this list.
• Reach simply indicates the player's average draft position (ADP) is well ahead of his expert consensus ranking (ECR) according to FantasyPros.
• Value means the opposite: Said player is dropping well below his ranking in ADP and should be targeted in between those two positions.

Honorable Mention

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Ertz's receiving prowess is unquestioned, but his blocking must improve to see significant time in Chip Kelly's offense.

Reach: Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams

Mason's 100th-place ADP overall is gradually catching up to his dipping 110th-place ECR. Expectations in St. Louis are that rookie Todd Gurley will eclipse Mason on the depth chart as soon as he's cleared to play in 2015.

Value: Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings

Johnson's draft stock continues to dip, sliding into the 10th round in ADP (No. 107) despite his 92nd-rated ECR. Fantasy owners' opinions of Johnson don't match the strong rapport built with Teddy Bridgewater in the second half of 2014.

Mike Wallace's addition and Adrian Peterson's return only strengthen Johnson's prospects as a fantasy WR3.

Value: Shane Vereen, New York Giants

Vereen is expected to take the lead on passing downs, according to ESPN New York's Dan Graziano. His skills as a receiver and blocker might chew into Rashad Jennings' touches and render Andre Williams a non-factor to start 2015.

Value(?): Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted Ertz is wowing with acrobatic catches in training camp, but he still sits behind Brent Celek on the depth chart. His potential as a fantasy TE1 will remain unrealized if Ertz can't improve his blocking ability to beat out Celek for first-team reps.

He's worth a speculative look if he dips to the ninth round of your draft, but be sure to temper expectations. Ertz's current ECR (85th) is too high if he can't make first chair in Philadelphia's tight end rotation.

Value: Steve Smith Sr., Baltimore Ravens

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Smith (No. 89) enters 2015 as Baltimore's top receiving target by default.

Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tweeted that Steve Smith announced his intention to retire at the end of the 2015 season. The 36-year-old has compiled eight 1,000-yard campaigns, including last year—his first with the Ravens.

The 5'9", 195-pound All-Pro might lose some attraction to fantasy owners as a result of the announcement; he's dropping to 98th overall on average, a full round below his 86th-place ECR. But Smith's position as the most experienced target in pass-happy coordinator Marc Trestman's offense is intriguing.

Torrey Smith is gone, leaving rookie Breshad Perriman and four-year journeyman Kamar Aiken to fill the void. Neither Crockett Gilmore nor rookie Maxx Williams is expected to be an impact player at tight end, leaving Justin Forsett as Smith's principal competition for Joe Flacco's passes.

Smith finished 2014 20th in fantasy scoring among wide receivers, and there's no reason to believe he can't be a consistent WR3 option this season. His ninth-round value prices him favorably for owners looking to add depth at wide receiver.

Draft-day takeaway: Smith became a "sell-high" candidate last season, amassing 63 percent of his 1,065 receiving yards in Baltimore's first eight games, per Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com.

Value: Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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A slimmer Martin wants to recapture the magic of his rookie season.

Fantasy owners who are determined to declare Doug Martin a bust are instead taking a barrage of positive news out of Buccaneers camp this offseason.

Head coach Lovie Smith said, "We haven't seen the true Doug Martin yet," according to Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune in April. This came around the same time the team declined to pick up Martin's fifth-year option, leaving the 2012 first-rounder without a contract after the 2015 season.

Martin told Buccaneers.com's Casey Phillips he shed "four or five percent" body fat for a slimmer appearance at OTAs (h/t Joe Kania of the team's website). Scott Reynolds of Pewter Report reported Martin dropped to 210 pounds. Cummings called this Martin's "best offseason in three years."

Smith emphasized Tampa Bay's commitment to the running game and solidified Martin's role as the lead back at the start of training camp, according to Tom Jones of the Tampa Bay Times.

"Definitely a key for us. We talked about being able to establish the run. Doug will be the lead guy doing that, so it's very important that we open up some holes and let him do his thing."

Finally, NFL.com's Chris Wesseling tweeted a quote from NFL Network's Mike Mayock:

"Apparently Doug Martin looks fantastic ... they're all excited that we're going to see the Doug Martin of 2012."

The sting of Martin's collapse over the past two seasons still flares for fantasy owners who drafted him second overall on average in 2013, according to MyFantasyLeague.com. But now, owners are letting him drop to the start of the ninth round (96th overall), a full 13 spots below his seventh-round ranking (No. 83).

The three-year veteran is worth the later-round flier as the last probable RB1 on the board.

Draft-day takeaway: Martin offers the Buccaneers superior ball security, fumbling just once every 218 touches compared to Charles Sims—once every 42.5.

Reach: Victor Cruz, New York Giants

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Cruz's recovery looks to be on track in limited camp work, but it doesn't translate to a return to WR1 fantasy numbers.

Perhaps this list should be called "Ninth-Round Values and Victor." The lower end of drafts just lends itself to more sleepers than busts simply based on supply and demand.

Cruz is expected to recover fully to from a torn patellar tendon by Week 1, just 10 months removed from suffering the injury. Head coach Tom Coughlin is pleased with the results seen at training camp, according to NJ.com's Jordan Raanan.

"He seems to be doing well. There's no complaints and he's gone through some things that I think he's maybe challenged himself and came out the other end. So far, so good."

But Cruz's return from IR isn't his only challenge this season. He will be competing for targets among Odell Beckham Jr., Rueben Randle, Larry Donnell, Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen, at the very least. The combination could lead to a slow start and inconsistent play to begin 2015.

Taking New York's obvious WR3 at the start of the ninth round (96th overall) certainly qualifies as a reach considering fantasy owners are ignoring projected WR1s: Allen Robinson, Steve Smith Sr. and Charles Johnson.

Granted, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings passing games aren't on par with New York's, but the drop-off between WR1 and WR3 is significant in most offenses. Let Cruz fall to the 10th round where he lines up better with his 117th overall ECR.

Draft-day takeaway: Dr. David J. Chao, MD tweeted, "When I was in [the] NFL, [I] contributed cases to study by [the] Broncos docs that showed players usually recover [the] next season after patella tendon tear."

Value: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

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Rivers enters 2015 without a contract extension in a possible audition for free agency in 2016.

Rivers finished last season with QB1 fantasy totals—12th among quarterbacks, per CBS Sports—despite a slew of injuries at running back and awful offensive line play, according to Pro Football Focus.

The 11-year veteran suffered rib and back injuries, which, as he told Bleacher Report's Jason Cole, made the last few weeks of 2014 "about as tough as I've been through."

Rivers earned the eighth-ranked passing grade from PFF, just ahead of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.

The greatest obstacle facing the 33-year-old quarterback this season is the absence of a contract extension and the uncertainty of the Chargers' future in San Diego. Contract years are typically viewed as favorable from a fantasy perspective because of the personal incentive to achieve maximum statistical results.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweeted, "It appears virtually certain [the] Chargers [and] Philip Rivers won't agree on long-term extension before season [because of] at least one key sticking point."

Rivers projects as an excellent value for owners employing a "zero quarterback" strategy. He has a seventh-round ECR (No. 81) but isn't coming off draft boards until pick No. 103. Owners inclined to use the first eight rounds to load up at other positions can target Rivers with confidence in the ninth.

Draft-day takeaway: Rivers hasn't missed a start—153 straight, including the playoffs—since taking over for Drew Brees in 2006.

Value: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

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Fitzgerald (No. 11) and Palmer (No. 3) are primed for fantasy rebounds if both remain healthy.

Fitzgerald is obviously in the downturn of his career arc, but fantasy owners should not turn their collective backs on the future Hall of Famer if Carson Palmer is healthy.

The 11-year veteran fell outside the top 30 in fantasy scoring among wide receivers, per CBS Sports, for only the second time in his All-Pro career. Missing three starts for only the second time in his otherwise consistently healthy career contributed to that, but attempting to field errant throws from Ryan Lindley and Drew Stanton was a much larger factor.

Palmer threw accurately to Fitzgerald on 82 percent of his attempts in 2014, compared to 51 percent from his replacements, according to Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus. Fitzgerald finished second in PFF's drop-rate metric with just one whiff in 64 catchable targets.

Although Arizona appeared to spread the ball evenly last season—Fitzgerald (103 targets), John Brown (102) and Michael Floyd (99)—Fitzgerald actually averaged 7.4 targets per game to Brown's 6.4 and Floyd's 6.2. As such, Fitzgerald figures to lead the Cardinals in targets again in 2015, especially with Floyd sidelined three to five weeks with dislocated fingers, according to ESPN's Ed Werder.

A healthy 2015 campaign from both Palmer and Fitzgerald will likely reward owners with WR2 results for a WR4 price tag (ADP 105).

Draft-day takeaway: With Palmer throwing to him, Fitzgerald was on pace for 109.3 targets, 85.3 catches, 1,288 yards and 5.3 TDs over 16 games in 2014, per Rotoworld's Evan Silva.

Average draft position and consensus ranking courtesy of FantasyPros, NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, fantasy stats provided by CBS Sports, contract and salary-cap information provided by Over the Cap unless otherwise noted.