Predicting Each MLB Team's Biggest Breakout Pitcher in 2026
A breakout performance from a starting pitcher at the back of the rotation or a high-leverage arm in the bullpen can completely transform a team's pitching staff, without any outside additions required.
Breakout performances come in many shapes and sizes, from a touted prospect solidifying his status as an impact contributor to a promising up-and-comer taking the next step and emerging as an All-Star.
Ahead, we've highlighted one breakout candidate for each MLB team, focusing solely on pitchers. Position players were given their own article earlier this week, which can be found below.
The only requirements for inclusion were that a player had to have already made his MLB debut, and he must not have been previously selected to an All-Star team at any point in his career.
In case you missed it: Predicting Every MLB Team's Biggest Breakout Hitter in 2026
AL East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: SP Shane Baz
Age: 26
2025 Stats: 31 GS, 4.87 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 64 BB, 176 K, 166.1 IP
The Orioles parted with four prospects, all of which immediately slotted into the top 25 in a deep Tampa Bay system, to acquire Baz and his three remaining years of club control. After battling injuries, he tossed a career-high 166.1 innings in 2025, and a strong 24.8 percent strikeout rate coupled with a 4.37 FIP that outpaced his ERA suggests he has not yet peaked.
Boston Red Sox: SP Connelly Early
Age: 23
2025 Stats: 4 GS, 2.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 4 BB, 29 K, 19.1 IP
While Payton Tolle was the more hyped pitching prospect, Early outperformed him in September and parlayed that into a postseason start. Now he's competing with offseason pickup Johan Oviedo for the No. 5 starter job. Even if he starts the year at Triple-A, he should be the first starter called on when reinforcements are needed, and his brilliant 29-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 19.1 innings was a good tease of his long-term potential.
New York Yankees: SP Cam Schlittler
Age: 25
2025 Stats: 14 GS, 2.96 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 31 BB, 84 K, 73.0 IP
Eight shutout innings and 12 strikeouts against the rival Red Sox in the ALWC vaulted Schlittler into the national spotlight, but his big league career is still in the fledgling stages. He will likely open the season as the No. 2 starter in the Yankees' rotation with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt all sidelined, and with an electric fastball that averages 98.0 mph and quality secondary stuff, he is up to the task.
Tampa Bay Rays: RP Edwin Uceta
Age: 28
2025 Stats: 70 G, 21 HLD, 3.79 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, 76.0 IP
With Pete Fairbanks cut loose at the start of the offseason, there is a void to be filled at the back of the Tampa Bay bullpen. They could opt for a committee approach with Griffin Jax and Garrett Cleavinger capable of high-leverage innings, but if anyone is going to win the ninth-inning role outright, it's Uceta. His fastball, changeup, and cutter all generated a whiff rate north of 30 percent last year, and he performed well in a brief run as the team's closer down the stretch in 2024.
Toronto Blue Jays: SP Trey Yesavage
Age: 22
2025 Stats: 3 GS, 3.21 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7 BB, 16 K, 14.0 IP
Similar to Schlittler, Yesavage is more experienced than his surface-level numbers suggest after pitching some huge innings in October. Brilliant starts in the ALDS (5.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 11 K) and World Series (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 12 K) proved his stuff would play in the pressure cooker of October baseball. Now, he enters his first full season as one of the AL Rookie of the Year favorites and a lock for the Opening Day rotation.
AL Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: SP/RP Grant Taylor
Age: 23
2025 Stats: 36 G, 6 SV, 4.91 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 13.3 K/9, 36.2 IP
It's not hyperbole to say Taylor has the best pure stuff on the White Sox staff; it's simply a question of how he fits into the team's 2026 plans. After averaging 98.7 mph with his fastball and showcasing a nasty curveball that generated a 37.0 percent whiff rate, he has the stuff to close games, but he could also be stretched out as a starter. The 1.42 FIP that backed his less-than-stellar 4.91 ERA is more indicative of his immediate upside.
Cleveland Guardians: SP Joey Cantillo
Age: 26
2025 Stats: 34 G, 13 GS, 3.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 42 BB, 108 K, 95.1 IP
After bouncing between the rotation, bullpen, and Triple-A for much of the year, Cantillo settled into a starting role down the stretch last year and posted a 1.59 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts in 39.2 innings over his final seven outings. He will need to win a rotation spot this spring, but should have a leg up on Logan Allen, Parker Messick, and others, with legitimate middle-of-the-rotation upside.
Detroit Tigers: SP/RP Drew Anderson
Age: 31
2025 Stats (KBO): 30 GS, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 51 BB, 245 K, 171.2 IP
The Tigers do not have an open rotation spot for Anderson, who signed a one-year, $7 million deal in early December following a fantastic season in the KBO, but manager A.J. Hinch knows how to maximize his pitching staff as well as any manager in baseball. Whether he serves as a swingman, high-leverage reliever, or eventually works his way into the rotation, there's no ignoring those 245 strikeouts in 171.2 innings last year.
Kansas City Royals: SP Stephen Kolek
Age: 28
2025 Stats: 19 GS, 3.51 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 31 BB, 77 K, 112.2 IP
Assuming Noah Cameron showed enough during a stellar rookie season to be locked into a rotation spot, the Royals' five-man staff is set in stone, but it's rare that a team makes it through a full season without needing to dip into their starting pitching depth. Kolek was acquired last summer in the deal that sent catcher Freddy Fermin to San Diego, and after logging a 1.91 ERA over 33 innings in five starts following the trade, he should be the next man up when a sixth starter is needed.
Minnesota Twins: SP Zebby Matthews
Age: 25
2025 Stats: 16 GS, 5.56 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 24 BB, 88 K, 79.1 IP
The path to a rotation spot has become much clearer for Matthews in the wake of the Pablo López injury, and while his 2025 numbers don't jump off the page, he logged three quality starts over his final five appearances down the stretch. That included seven innings of four-hit, one-run ball against the Rangers in his final start, and that momentum, coupled with a strong minor league track record, has him on the doorstep of a breakthrough.
AL West
3 of 6
Athletics: SP Luis Morales
Age: 23
2025 Stats: 10 G, 9 GS, 3.14 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 18 BB, 43 K, 48.2 IP
Morales has a Top 100 pedigree (No. 79 on BA Top 100 in 2024), a starter's frame (6'3", 200 lbs), and electric stuff with a fastball that averaged 98.0 mph and a sweeper that generated a 38.0 percent whiff rate. The Athletics need impact starters in the worst way, and he is their most promising young arm entering the 2026 season.
Houston Astros: SP Mike Burrows
Age: 26
2025 Stats: 23 G, 19 GS, 3.94 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 31 BB, 97 K, 96.0 IP
The Astros paid a steep price to acquire Burrows, sending outfielder Jacob Melton and right-hander Anderson Brito the other way, but with club control through 2031 and promising early results, he has the potential to be a long-term piece. His changeup was an elite offering last season, limiting opponents to a .147 average with a 43.1 percent whiff rate, and the Astros have a knack for maximizing a pitcher's fastball.
Los Angeles Angels: SP Reid Detmers
Age: 26
2025 Stats: 61 G, 13 HLD, 3.96 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 63.2 IP
The No. 10 overall pick in the 2020 draft and a staple in the Angels rotation in 2022 and 2023, Detmers served up a 6.70 ERA over 87.1 innings in 2024 and found himself relegated to the bullpen last year. He took the move in stride, increasing his breaking ball usage and scrapping his changeup, and now he's set to return to a starting role. Manager Kurt Suzuki has already called him a "lock" for the rotation.
Seattle Mariners: RP Eduard Bazardo
Age: 30
2025 Stats: 73 G, 12 HLD, 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 78.2 IP
While those impressive 2025 numbers might suggest he has already broken out, how many people outside of Seattle have even heard of Eduard Bazardo? The 30-year-old journeyman took his game to another level last season by pitching off his sinker rather than his four-seam fastball, and while he's not going to unseat Andrés Muñoz in the closer's role, he should see more high-leverage exposure in 2026.
Texas Rangers: SP Jacob Latz
Age: 29
2025 Stats: 33 G, 8 GS, 2.84 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 37 BB, 76 K, 85.2 IP
Latz actually pitched better as a starter (2.72 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 39.2 IP) than he did as a reliever (2.93 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 46.0 IP) last year, and he did not give up more than two earned runs in any of his starts. Kumar Rocker still offers a higher long-term ceiling, but for a Rangers team trying to contend, Latz has the upper hand for the No. 5 starter job.
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NL East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: SP/RP José Suarez
Age: 28
2025 Stats: 7 G, 1 GS, 1.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10 BB, 16 K, 19.1 IP
The Braves staff was by far the hardest to pinpoint a breakout candidate, especially after Hurston Waldrep underwent elbow surgery. Suarez will need to earn his spot, but he is an intriguing arm who quietly turned in a terrific start (7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 9 K) against the Nationals last September. He has 62 big league starts under his belt, and while a relief role will likely be how his season begins, he could end up as surprisingly valuable rotation depth if the injury bug bites again.
Miami Marlins: SP Max Meyer
Age: 26
2025 Stats: 12 GS, 4.73 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 20 BB, 68 K, 64.2 IP
In the wake of the Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers trades, Meyer has gone from high-ceiling starter candidate to rotation necessity heading into 2026. The former No. 3 overall pick appeared to be on his way to a breakout last season when he opened the year with a 2.10 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 30 innings while logging four quality starts in his first five outings. Arm talent has never been the problem; he just needs to stay healthy.
New York Mets: SP Nolan McLean
Age: 24
2025 Stats: 8 GS, 2.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 16 BB, 57 K, 48.0 IP
McLean jump-started the Mets' rotation with a fantastic final two months last season, earning NL Rookie of the Year votes despite pitching just 48 innings and maintaining his rookie status. There is nothing in his peripheral numbers to suggest his stellar debut is not sustainable, and he could end up being the co-ace of the staff alongside Freddy Peralta if everything clicks.
Philadelphia Phillies: RP Jonathan Bowlan
Age: 29
2025 Stats: 34 G, 2 HLD, 3.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 44.1 IP
Trading Matt Strahm was financially motivated, but it's telling that the Phillies acquired Bowlan in that deal rather than a prospect. The 2018 second-round pick spent years trying to break through as a starter before finally making the full-time move to the bullpen last season. The results were good, not great, but there is a lot of untapped upside in a fastball and slider that both had a whiff rate above 40 percent, and the fact that he is out of options all but guarantees him a role.
Washington Nationals: SP Cade Cavalli
Age: 27
2025 Stats: 10 GS, 4.25 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 15 BB, 40 K, 48.2 IP
A former consensus Top 100 prospect who had his trajectory derailed by injuries, Cavalli finally got a chance at an extended run in the majors last season as a 26-year-old rookie. The No. 22 overall pick in the 2020 draft showed enough to be a lock for a 2026 rotation that might be the worst in baseball following the MacKenzie Gore trade, and he looks like the leading candidate to emerge as de facto ace.
NL Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: RP Daniel Palencia
Age: 26
2025 Stats: 54 G, 22 SV, 2.91 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 52.2 IP
The rise from fringe roster candidate to a 22-save season might already look like a breakout, and it was in many respects, but there's still another gear for a pitcher with the stuff to be one of baseball's elite closers. A few bumps in the road and a late injury kept Palencia's 2025 from being a true ascent to elite status, but an early vote of confidence from manager Craig Counsell this spring and a fastball (99.6 mph)/slider (39.4% whiff) combo few can match hint at more to come.
Cincinnati Reds: SP Chase Burns
Age: 23
2025 Stats: 13 G, 8 GS, 4.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 16 BB, 67 K, 43.1 IP
Prediction: This will be the last time Burns enters spring training without an iron-clad place in the starting rotation. The electric right-hander dealt with some ups and downs in his debut, but his 67 strikeouts in 43.1 innings speak to the quality of his stuff, and he has nothing left to prove in the minors after steamrolling his way to the majors a year ago. The only thing standing in his way is Rhett Lowder, who has impact upside himself in the battle for the No. 5 starter job, but Burns is a legitimate ace in the making.
Milwaukee Brewers: SP Logan Henderson
Age: 23
2025 Stats: 5 GS, 1.78 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8 BB, 33 K, 25.1 IP
Henderson dazzled in five spot starts last season, but spent the bulk of the season in Triple-A waiting in the wings. The Freddy Peralta trade has cleared a path, but he will still need to hold off Kyle Harrison, Robert Gasser, Brandon Sproat, and others. The development of a reliable breaking ball alongside his fastball and changeup is the key, and the curveball he is working on this spring could be the answer.
Pittsburgh Pirates: SP Braxton Ashcraft
Age: 26
2025 Stats: 26 G, 8 GS, 2.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 24 BB, 71 K, 69.2 IP
Ashcraft began his big league career in a multi-inning relief role last season before moving into the rotation in August, and in his eight starts, he posted a 2.16 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts in 33.1 innings. That serves as a "proof of concept" of sorts for his ability to step into a full-time rotation role this season, and while Bubba Chandler undoubtedly has the higher ceiling, Ashcraft is better positioned for immediate success in 2026 after his springboard finish.
St. Louis Cardinals: SP Michael McGreevy
Age: 25
2025 Stats: 17 G, 16 GS, 4.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 20 BB, 58 K, 95.2 IP
Among the 143 pitchers who recorded at least 90 innings last season, McGreevy ranked 137th with a 14.5 percent strikeout rate. That might sound like a knock, but it actually speaks to his advanced feel for pitching that he was able to log the respectable numbers he did without missing any bats. His strikeout rate was 20.7 percent in the minors, and if he can climb closer to that mark, a sub-4.00 ERA is well within reach. The rebuilding Cardinals will give him every chance to prove himself.
NL West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: SP Ryne Nelson
Age: 28
2025 Stats: 33 G, 23 GS, 3.39 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 41 BB, 132 K, 154.0 IP
With Merrill Kelly traded and Zac Gallen struggling, Nelson was the best starter on the D-backs staff by the end of the 2025 season, despite opening the year in a bullpen role. Over his final seven outings, he had a 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while logging six quality starts, and he now pencils in as the No. 3 starter and pivot point in a volatile rotation.
Colorado Rockies: SP Chase Dollander
Age: 24
2025 Stats: 21 GS, 6.52 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 49 BB, 82 K, 98.0 IP
No one on the Rockies staff matches Dollander's pedigree as the No. 9 overall pick in the 2023 draft and the No. 8 prospect in baseball at the start of the 2025 season. He took his lumps as a rookie, but finished on a high note with strong road starts against the Astros (6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER) and Dodgers (5.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER) among his final three appearances.
Los Angeles Dodgers: SP Roki Sasaki
Age: 24
2025 Stats: 10 G, 8 GS, 4.46 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 22 BB, 28 K, 36.1 IP
Anyone suggesting Sasaki has already broken out after his star turn in the playoffs is forgetting how much he struggled to begin the 2025 season. Through eight starts, he had a 4.72 ERA and 22 walks in 34.1 innings before a shoulder injury sent him to the sidelines. After more than three months on the shelf, he was stashed in Triple-A, where he was shelled with a 6.10 ERA in 20.2 innings. The high-octane fastball plays in relief, but he still needs to prove himself as a starter, and the confidence he built in October will be invaluable.
San Diego Padres: RP Ron Marinaccio
Age: 30
2025 Stats: 7 G, 0.84 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 10.2 IP
If the Braves were the toughest team to nail down, the Padres were a very close second. Marinaccio is an out-of-options reliever battling for the final spot in the bullpen, but his 3.02 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in 108 appearances over the last three seasons paint him as a swing-and-miss reliever with untapped potential. The Padres don't need him to immediately assume a high-leverage role with their stacked bullpen, but he could be another weapon in the arsenal.
San Francisco Giants: SP/RP Hayden Birdsong
Age: 24
2025 Stats: 21 G, 10 GS, 4.80 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 37 BB, 68 K, 65.2 IP
Speaking about Birdsong with reporters, Giants ace Logan Webb said he thinks "the stuff is incredible" and his potential is "pretty sky high," which is notable praise from one of the best pitchers in the game. With 156 strikeouts and 80 walks in 137.2 innings the last two seasons, the swing-and-miss stuff is clear; it's just a matter of taking a step forward with his command. Landon Roupp might win the No. 5 starter job, but Birdsong is the impact arm to watch at the back of the staff.
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