Ranking the Best Hard-Court Players on the ATP Tour
As the heart of the U.S. Open Series draws near, the summer will decide the best hard-court players in tennis. This is the time when the stars must summon up energy through the summer heat in order to compete on faster outdoor surfaces, which can be very grueling.
The following slideshow ranks the best 10 players at this moment who look to contend over the next two months. Their past histories and successes are relatively important, but their current playing conditions and results are greater indicators of how they are expected to perform.
10. Dominic Thiem
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We lead off with a surprising choice who has recently picked up excellent summer momentum…on clay. Dominic Thiem is blowing away mid-level tournaments and draws filled with B-actors, so it’s easy to be enamored with his seemingly natural power and improving precision.
Will he carry this over to North America and against stiffer competition? There could be a learning curve, but if he keeps leaping forward, nobody’s going to want to play him. He could be the upgraded version of Stan Wawrinka.
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
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Last year Jo-Wilfried Tsonga crushed a powerful lineup on his way to hoisting up the Rogers Cup. He’s the kind of player who can beat anyone on his day, but of course the question has always been his consistency during big moments of his matches and then carrying his best tennis from one match to the next.
Tsonga's always lurking in the background as a threat to the top stars, but he is very capable on any surface, as evidenced by his 2008 Australian Open final appearance on slow hard courts and as a two-time semifinalist at both the French Open and Wimbledon. His best effort at the U.S. Open was a quarterfinal appearance in 2011.
8. Rafael Nadal
3 of 10
Two years removed from his second U.S. Open title, the Spaniard is trying to fight his way back into the top mix of contenders. Right now, there is more skepticism than optimism for those on the outside. His fighting spirit and desire is unquestioned, but here are the key questions he will need to answer.
- Will his forehand be lethal again? This means using both corners and sides of the court and playing with depth and timely power.
- Will his serve be a weapon? Two years ago, he placed it with excellent precision and intelligence, and it was nearly impossible to break him. He has a long way to go right now, especially if his match against Fabio Fognini (yes, it was on clay) was any indication.
- Can he work most points to his advantage? With opponents attacking better, Nadal is often unable to impose his former way of playing. The second half of the year, he is often worn down and must play on faster surfaces. Typically, this does not bode well for his success.
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7. Kei Nishikori
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We liked Kei Nishikori’s run to the 2014 U.S. Open final. He won clutch thrillers against Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic before getting overpowered by Marin Cilic. Will he have an encore?
Yes, but the odds are against it. Nishikori has shown signs of getting banged up again, and some of the other players are exposing his more mechanical tendencies. For instance, he is great at hitting angle shots on the rise, but reluctant to go up the line with either hand.
He must also survive hot serving days from more powerful players. It’s not easy for him, as his coach Michael Chang can well understand.
6. Marin Cilic
5 of 10
U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic should thrive in the year’s faster conditions. He has a 191-95 career record on hard courts, but he should be better than that. The big Croatian has a powerful serve, heavy groundstrokes and good enough consistency to be a big winner on the ATP Tour.
In some ways, he’s underachieved with his talent, but of course his top competition has not made it easy on anyone. Look for him to be a threat this summer, but that doesn’t mean he will be able to defend his U.S. Open title. That was the perfect storm.
5. Tomas Berdych
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Tomas Berdych is probably too high on this list, but you have to admire his consistency over the years. He's a talented ball-striker who is most likely going to dine with the quarterfinalists at the big tournaments.
Berdych can play on any surface, but his A-game never has quite enough variety or success during the big moments of important matches. His serve can go awry or his defensive footwork will wear down if a better player gets him to move all over the court.
Somehow it would still be less surprising to see him win the U.S. Open than it was to watch Marin Cilic blitz through his magical weekend a year ago. But if we watch the pot, it will never boil.
4. Roger Federer
7 of 10
Roger Federer has a greater claim than anyone else of being the best hard-court player of all time. His mastery in winning five consecutive U.S. Open titles on a relatively fast hard court is right there with Pete Sampras. His four Australian Open titles on slow hard courts is comparable to Andre Agassi. He’s like a merger of the former American stars.
Right now, it’s hard to put Federer higher than the fourth-best hard-court player. When he was dominating the tour, he did it with his baseline exploits, featuring his legendary forehand. That’s not the case anymore, and despite his upgraded capacity to serve and volley and create more offensive pressure, winning the U.S. Open requires more baseline credentials than he is showing late in his career.
He’s resting from Rogers Cup action, which should keep him fresh for the fast courts at Cincinnati. This is great preparation for Flushing Meadows, even though it is a bit slower and it's best-of-five sets. Still, Federer is one of the great fast-surface players on tour as he hits his 34th birthday.
3. Stan Wawrinka
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Stan Wawrinka gets the nod over Federer because his best tennis at the baseline is overpowering. Two majors in the last year-and-a-half attest to that. In 2013, he nearly knocked off Novak Djokovic in the U.S. Open semifinals. If he gets back, his game is better suited to succeed and win out than on the slicker courts at Wimbledon.
Perhaps the key to his confidence has been his tough-minded attitude. He is willing to win or lose and then walk off, but he’s going to hit tennis balls as if it were his life. After the match, it’s as if he can calmly put down his shield and sword and go look at the lake. It’s life and death, but yet it isn’t.
Regardless, Wawrinka is one of the favorites this summer.
2. Andy Murray
9 of 10
Andy Murray is right there, so close once again, and yet his fine hard-court play over the years has resulted in one major title, the 2012 U.S. Open. He’s got a terrific all-courts game, bolstered by his defensive retrieving and fluid strokes.
But...
When he falls short, it’s more about the opponent, and lately that means running into Novak Djokovic, who is more lethal and better at offense but able to match Murray’s defense. Other stars or second-tier stars can have their best day against Murray and send him packing.
So he’s our No. 2 player on hard courts if we are betting who can go deepest in hard-court tournaments, but that does not mean it is easy at all to win big titles. On the contrary, there’s an appreciable gap between him and No. 1.
1. Novak Djokovic
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There’s Novak Djokovic, and then there’s everyone else. He is the favorite whatever the surface or tournament he enters for the foreseeable future.
A couple of things to note about his play on hard courts.
- He is more dominant at Australia, Indian Wells, Miami and the early part of the year that features slower hard courts.
- How much will it mean for him to try to sweep the U.S. Open Series? He needs only the Cincinnati title to have a career claim on all Masters 1000 titles, but he also will be ready to go hard at Montreal and wants most of all to claim the U.S. Open.
It will take another burst of stamina and strength, but if he looks at Rafael Nadal’s model two years ago, he must figure he can do it too. And there’s a good chance he will.
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