The 8 Biggest NFL Free-Agent Busts Waiting to Happen in 2026

Can you hear that noise off in the distance? That's the sound of NFL players getting ready to cash in on free agency.

It has to be quite the feeling to be headed onto the open market as one of the top options available at a given position. Granted, it could mean a change in helmet and mailing address, but the checks sent to that new address will be…robust.

However, there's a flip side to being a high-end free agent. As often as not, teams wind up overpaying those players. It happens in bidding wars. Especially with clubs who have to pay a "bad team premium" to lure in free agents.

Or, their level of play falls off relative to the season that got them paid, whether due to an injury or just a decrease in production.

And when those free agents don't live up to those bigger paychecks, there's another "b" word that starts getting used: bust.

QB Daniel Jones

AP Photo/John Raoux

For much of last season, it appeared Daniel Jones was headed toward a monster payday in 2026.

The 28-year-old completed a career-high 68 percent of his passes and posted a triple-digit passer rating for the first time in his career. The seven-year veteran and 2019 sixth overall pick had the Indianapolis Colts in first place for much of the season.

But the four-year, $174.4 million contract Spotrac projects for Jones could be a calamity for the team that signs him—because calamity is how his 2025 campaign ended.

In Week 14 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Jones ruptured his Achilles tendon—a devastating end to his breakout season. While speaking to the media, he said he plans to attack his rehab and be ready for training camp.

"I think, obviously, it's a long process in recovery and there's a time frame to it," he said. "You've got to check a lot of boxes along the way, but I expect to be ready to go by training camp. So, we'll attack the process and make sure I'm ready to go."

From all indications, the Colts remain highly interested in retaining Jones. But if it's at anywhere near that projected contract, it will be Indy's latest gaffe under center.

Not only is seven months an awfully optimistic timetable for a return from an Achilles tear, but a fat contract assumes he will be able to recapture pre-injury form and repeat last year's surprise career season.

Anything more than a one-year deal is asking for trouble.

RB Kenneth Walker III

AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III is riding high right now.

After topping 1,000 rushing yards in the regular season and averaging a career-high 4.6 yards per carry, he went on a rampage in the postseason that included a 27-carry, 135-yard outburst in Seattle's win over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX that earned Walker MVP honors.

That playoff outburst gives him quite a bit of leverage heading into free agency, and Brendon Nelson of Sports Illustrated expects that leverage to earn him a deal similar to the one 2025 rushing king James Cook got from the Buffalo Bills in 2025:

"James Cook might be the correct comparison at this point. Extended by Buffalo last year on a four year, $46 million contract, Cook picked up back-to-back Pro Bowls before getting paid. Nearly 1,600 scrimmage yards in 2023, and 18 touchdowns in 2024, with extremely high efficiency. He also had a big postseason run in 2024."

If that's the case, the team that signs Walker will likely be disappointed. Because that is featured back money—and Walker isn't a featured back.

Yes, Walker was in the postseason, but only because teammate Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL. Walker has two 1,000-yard seasons, but he doesn't have a campaign with even 260 touches. That's because when he has received a heavier workload, Walker has struggled to stay healthy—prior to 2025, Walker had missed multiple games in each of his first three seasons.

Walker's playoff run was impressive. But paying guys for what they have already done instead of what they will do is one of free agency's most common blunders.

WR Jauan Jennings

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

The San Francisco 49ers are heading into a critical offseason with questions galore at wide receiver. With Brandon Aiyuk a goner and Jauan Jennings about to hit free agency, the Niners could be staring at an alarmingly bare cupboard at the position.

While speaking to reporters, Niners general manager John Lynch said that in a perfect world he would love to have Jennings back on the team in 2026:

"Gosh, man, the passion that guy plays the game with is something I admire and always have. And this year was no different. He dealt with a lot of injuries throughout the course of the year, but Jauan always plays with a passion. We can always count on Jauan. We can move him around. He blocks, he does the little things. You can see by the way the other players respond. He plays the right way, and I think it frustrates other people. He makes us better. We'd love to have him back. We'll go to work to try to get that accomplished and we'll see where that goes."

However, the projected contract of three years and $67.8 million for the 28-year-old is most assuredly not a perfect world.

Jennings is a good player. He set a career high this past season with nine touchdown catches. But in five seasons Jennings has topped 75 catches just once. He has never had 1,000 receiving yards. And Jennings has missed multiple games in each of the past three seasons.

Those numbers just aren't worth $22 million and change a year.

OT Rasheed Walker

AP Photo/Duane Burleson

Being the best offensive tackle in a free-agent class usually equates to a fat payday. Last year, the Tennessee Titans gave Dan Moore over $20 million a season even though he allowed 12 sacks the year before.

Rasheed Walker was better in that regard for the Green Bay Packers in 2025—five sacks allowed in 986 snaps per PFF.

However, as Mike Oldacres wrote for Packers Wire, Walker has his issues as well:

"He is just below average in PFF's pass block efficiency metric, which encompasses a player's pass blocking as a whole, ranking in the 46th percentile overall and the 48th on true drop backs. The former seventh-round pick has provided perfectly workable left tackle play, but not much more. Walker is one of the poorest run blockers in the NFL, at least based on PFF's grading. His zone block grade ranks in just the 15th percentile over the last three seasons and his gap scheme block grade sits in the 36th percentile. He ranks in the 22nd percentile for overall run block grade."

Those deficiencies won't stop some team from breaking the bank with Walker—even capable blindside tackles don't hit the open market that often.

But the four-year, $81.1 million contract projected for Walker in free agency looks eerily similar to Moore's contract—a classic overpay that will be followed by a so-so season that will leave his new team with buyer's remorse and looking for an out two or three years into the deal.

OG David Edwards

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Offensive tackles aren't the only linemen who can clean up in free agency—there are six guards in the league who have an average annual salary of $20 million or more.

According to Spotrac, there's about to be a seventh—or at least close to it. The site projects that after seven NFL seasons (including the last three in Buffalo) veteran guard David Edwards of the Bills will receive a three-year, $59.7 million deal in free agency.

To be clear, the 28-year-old finds himself in a highly advantageous position—he's the best interior lineman available in free agency.

After spending the 2023 season as a backup interior lineman in Buffalo, Edwards entered the starting lineup in 2024 and fared well. Per Pro Football Focus, he played at least 900 snaps each of the past two seasons and gave up just three sacks, including zero two years ago.

But while Edwards is a solid player, he's not a dominant player like Chris Lindstrom of the Atlanta Falcons or Quenton Nelson of the Indianapolis Colts. He has been better with the Bills than he was with the Los Angeles Rams, but he still hasn't been great.

That won't stop him from getting a big-money deal—the best offensive lineman at each position who actually hits the open market usually does. But the teams who give out those big deals more often than not wind up shaking their heads two years down the road wondering why the guy they overpaid isn't living up to his contract.

Edge Trey Hendrickson

AP Photo/Kareem Elgazzar

There was a time when it would have been a no-brainer for the Cincinnati Bengals to do whatever it takes to retain edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson. Over his first four seasons, he had 57 sacks and made the Pro Bowl four times. In 2024, Hendrickson led the league with 17 sacks.

But his 2025 season was marred by a protracted contract impasse that limited the 31-year-old to just seven games. Per Cameron Wolfe of the NFL Network, that contentious negotiation likely spelled the end of Hendrickson's time in the Queen City:

"A source told me he figures it's unlikely for these two sides to reunite going into next season ... A difficult decision for Cincy, because their relationship has not been great in recent weeks, and I'm told that if this deal does end up happening (with another team), free agency-wise, keep an eye on the Indianapolis Colts. It's a team that wants to be aggressive. They made the big splash move for Sauce Gardner mid-season. Lou Anarumo has a lot of familiarity with Trey Hendrickson."

Elite edge-rushers can command gaudy salaries, and Hendrickson is projected to earn over $25 million a season on a new deal.

If he can recapture his 2024 form, Hendrickson would be a relative bargain at that cost. But he will turn 32 during the 2026 campaign, and his four sacks a year ago were his fewest since 2018.

And with his new deal likely to only be for a couple of years, there won't be much wiggle room to spread that fat salary around.

LB Devin Lloyd

AP Photo/Zach Bolinger

To be fair, Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd has been a solid player over four seasons in Duval County.

He surpassed 100 total tackles in each of his first three seasons, and while those tackle numbers dipped in 2025, he made his first Pro Bowl thanks to a whopping five interceptions, including a 99-yard pick-six against the Kansas City Chiefs.

While addressing the media, Lloyd expressed an interest in staying with the only NFL team he's known while also sounding like a young man who expects to see a fat bag of cash in his near future:

"I want to be where God wants me to be. For me, being back in Jacksonville, my mom lives out there. You know, obviously, my lady is out there. You know, there are a lot of pros to being out there. And so, for me, it's just about being in the right spot. Ultimately, that's the No. 1 most important thing, being in the right spot."

However, if that bag is anywhere near the three-year, $60.4 million contract predicted by Spotrac, it will be a fiasco for the team that writes the check.

There are two off-ball linebackers in the league who make $20 million or more a season—Fred Warner of the San Francisco 49ers and Roquan Smith of the Baltimore Ravens. They also happen to be the two best players at the position in the NFL.

Lloyd just isn't in the same class as that duo. He's not even the best linebacker on his own team.

Paying $15 million a season for Lloyd is pushing it, but $20 million is excessive.

CB Nahshon Wright

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

The annals of free agency are filled with players who clean up after having a big season in a contract year.

Where the cornerbacks in 2026 are concerned, Nahshon Wright of the Chicago Bears is the leading candidate to turn a well-timed breakout into a massive raise—his next contract is projected to be a three-year pact worth north of $50 million.

To be clear, Wright most assuredly earned a raise. After starting just three games over his first four seasons, he started 16 games for the Bears in 2025, racking up 80 total tackles, intercepting five passes and adding 11 passes defensed.

The 27-year-old played last year on a one-year, $1.1 million deal, and he has made less than $5 million for his career playing for three teams. He told reporters that he's looking forward to having a bit more cheese in the fridge this year.

"I don't know what to expect, but it's definitely a good situation to be in," Wright said. "Hopefully (I'll make) more than what I made last year, for sure."

There's no question that's going to happen, but handing Wright well over $15 million a season is bad roster building.

Is it possible that Wright is a late bloomer and budding star? Yes, but it's far more likely that his gaudy interception numbers were a one-year outlier.

Opposing quarterbacks weren't afraid of him. He was targeted 98 times in 2025 and allowed half a dozen touchdowns in coverage.

He deserves a raise, but not a windfall.