Bold Predictions For the Rest of the 2025-26 NBA Season
With the trade deadline and NBA All-Star festivities behind us, it's time to turn our attention to the closing stretch of the season.
While a few things seem certain, such as the Detroit Pistons bruising their way to nearly 60 wins and Dillon Brooks definitely picking up enough extra technical fouls to get suspended at least one more time, others are less settled.
Let's keep things interesting by making some much bolder predictions about what's ahead.
To qualify for inclusion, the outcome cannot be likely.
"James Harden will have a big impact on the Cleveland Cavaliers' offense", for example, is a coward's call. It'd be surprising if he didn't add some fresh dimensions with his new team. The San Antonio Spurs running down the Oklahoma City Thunder and stealing the No. 1 seed in the West?
Now that's more like it.
These forecasts should trigger disbelief at first, but then they should force you to squint, reconsider and concede they're actually not all that ridiculous after all. These are the Alonzo Mourning meme of predictions, basically.
The Spurs Will Overtake the Thunder
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Victor Wembanyama is the best defensive player on the planet, he's also apparently capable of scoring 25 points in an eight-minute span, and the San Antonio Spurs' offense is now firmly among the league's top 10.
Plus, consider the trend lines. San Antonio had the best record in the league in the two months leading into the break.
Before you cite the Thunder's myriad injuries, understand that the defending champs' physical frailty is just another reason for them to take their foot off the gas pedal down the stretch. Meanwhile, the rising Spurs have exactly the right mix of youthful indestructibility and "time to prove it" chutzpah to make a furious closing run.
Oklahoma City has every incentive to coast into the finish. It knows it can win the whole thing if it can get its full roster healthy, and it probably doesn't even care about seeding.
The Spurs are going to view the No. 1 spot a little differently; for them, it would represent validation that the Wemby era of dominance is already here.
Coming out of the break, San Antonio is three games back of Oklahoma City. Wemby and the rest of the Spurs are going to close that gap and finish the season atop the conference.
We'll Get 5 1st-Time All-NBA Honorees
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The 65-game rule is rearing its head again, already eliminating LeBron James, Lauri Markkanen and Jalen Williams from eligibility for All-NBA honors. Giannis Antetokounmpo won't make it either. Nikola Jokić, Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard and even Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are all strong candidates to fall below the cutoff.
That's bad news for those superstars, but it's a welcome development for a new crop of potential All-NBAers.
Victor Wembanyama has already missed 14 games, which means he's close to falling below pace to hit 65. But he's the most obvious first-timer among a candidate list that also includes Tyrese Maxey (a virtual lock), Deni Avdija, Chet Holmgren, Jamal Murray, Scottie Barnes, Jalen Duren, Alperen Sengün, Michael Porter Jr. and more.
Rookies Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg should get some consideration if enough spots open up.
The more measured approach would be to project two or three first-time All-NBA nods. But that's not what this is about. We're going with five.
The Chicago Bulls Will Lose the Most Games
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Fans of the Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz and the other conventional tankers need not worry. The Chicago Bulls almost certainly can't finish at the bottom of the standings (and, more relevantly, at the top of the lottery odds). But they can have the worst record in the league between now and the end of the season.
Chicago sabotaged its roster at the deadline, trading away veterans and importing a raft of new players. The only apparent requirement was that they all qualify as guards.
The Bulls fielded a pre-break lineup that included Rob Dillingham, Jaden Ivey, Collin Sexton and Isaac Okoro. If they'd wanted to, they could have thrown Anfernee Simons out there to complete the full five-guard look. Josh Giddey and Tre Jones could have nearly completed a full "guards only" rotation.
While teams like the Jazz, Wizards and Indiana Pacers are all on notice following huge fines (for Utah and Indy) and commissioner Adam Silver's comments on tanking at the All-Star break, the Bulls can pile up losses without punishable shenanigans.
The roster makes no sense, and it's by design. With this undersized, defense-averse bunch, they won't have to bench or limit minutes for anyone.
After years of failing to dismount the mediocrity treadmill, the Bulls swan-dived off with abandon. They may be new to this kind of reset, but they clearly know what they're doing.
Kon Knueppel Will Win Rookie of the Year
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The hype machine started cranking before he came off the board as the inevitable No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, and nothing about Cooper Flagg's rookie campaign fell short of expectations.
Flagg has already set several all-time marks for a player as young as he is, and if you had to bet on it right now, his floor feels like that of a perennial All-NBA player.
Kon Knueppel is still having a better season—and one more deserving of Rookie of the Year honors.
Flagg's college roommate is in the midst of the greatest shooting campaign any rookie has ever posted. No first-year player has ever matched Knueppel's 64.6 true shooting percentage on at least 500 attempts. He's a lock to break the record for most threes made by a rookie, is currently posting a shooting split of 48.4/43.1/90.2 and is averaging 18.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists for a Charlotte Hornets team that is actually playing meaningful games.
Knueppel also roasts Flagg in virtually every advanced metric. He's miles ahead in Jeremias Engelmann's catch-all xRAPM (where Flagg actually rates as a negative) and has produced more than twice as many Estimated Wins as the Dallas Mavericks' young star according to EPM.
Flagg has the conventional case and is the overwhelming betting favorite. He's officially "the man" on his team and has been undeniably productive in a difficult role. Knueppel has been more consistent, productive and helpful in a winning effort. Eventually, voters will realize they can't ignore his case.
A Head Coach Will Be Fired
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There's no such thing as a room-temperature seat when it comes to NBA head coaches. Taylor Jenkins lost his job last year with just nine games remaining in the season and his Memphis Grizzlies sitting fifth in the West.
Yes, there were plenty of signs that things had gone sour in Memphis, but the point stands. A coach can get canned at any time, and Jenkins' ouster less than a year ago provides precedent.
If the Milwaukee Bucks run into a quagmire as Giannis Antetokounmpo tries to play meaningless games upon returning from injury, could the dynamics get weird enough to put Doc Rivers' job in jeopardy?
Might the already disappointing Orlando Magic accelerate their slide in a way that pushes management to part with Jamahl Mosley in March or April instead of the offseason?
What if notoriously flighty Sacramento Kings owner Vivek Ranadive spies a new shiny object and moves on from Doug Christie? Should lame-duck Brian Keefe really feel safe with the Washington Wizards? What about Billy Donovan in Chicago, where the team's fledgling rebuild might cause a mutual parting of the ways?
We're not going to predict that any specific coach gets the boot, but what happened last year makes another late-season firing just plausible enough to say that somebody is going to be out of a job before the regular season concludes.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
