Latest Stock Watch for 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams
It was a brutal Saturday to be a team on the men's NCAA tournament bubble. Teams who entered the day between Nos. 29-46 on our overall seed list went a combined 3-12, with four of those losses coming against teams not projected to dance.
But which bubble teams have moved the most in the past seven days?
Our "Stock Up" teams aren't necessarily in the projected field, nor are the "Stock Down" teams necessarily in a position of needing to play their way back into the picture. Moreover, not every bubble team will be part of today's conversation. We're just focused on those who have done the most good/bad for their resume over the past week.
Teams are presented in no particular order, aside from alternating between Stock Up and Stock Down.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats and metrics are current through the start of play on Sunday.
Stock Up: Wisconsin Badgers
1 of 9
Resume: 18-7, NET: 33, RES: 28.3, QUAL: 28.7
Past Week: W at Illinois, W vs. Michigan State
We always like to start things out with an up team and a down team that are no longer on the bubble, just as a reminder of how quickly things can change.
After last Saturday's overtime loss at Indiana, the Wisconsin Badgers were looking mighty bubbly. They were still in the projected field, but (IMHO) they had fallen behind both USC and Indiana and were looking at a No. 10 seed, even with that fantastic road win over Michigan on their resume.
In the blink of an eye, though, the Badgers are a near-lock to dance, provided they don't go out and lose every game left on their schedule.
Between their pair of Quad 1A wins over the Illini and the Spartans, they shot 31-for-71 (43.7 percent) from three-point range, led predominantly by Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, who each scored at least 24 points in each game.
Illinois at least put up one heck of a fight in a game that went to overtime, with Keaton Wagler having a chance to win at the buzzer. But Wisconsin walloped Michigan State from the jump, leading by 18 midway through the first half before cruising from there.
The Badgers have two home games left against Iowa and Maryland, as well as four road games against Ohio State, Oregon, Washington and Purdue. Win two of the six and they'll be dancing. But with the way they've been shooting lately, winning all six and vaulting up to something like a No. 3 seed is within the realm of possibility.
Stock Down: George Mason Patriots
2 of 9
Resume: 21-5, NET: 90, RES: 58.7, QUAL: 101.7
Past Week: L at Richmond, L at George Washington
On Martin Luther King Jr. Day, George Mason picked up a nice home win over George Washington to improve to 18-1 overall. The Patriots were in our projected field at that point with a tiny bit of room to spare.
Less than a month later, they entered Valentine's Day at 21-5 overall, coincidentally fresh off a loss to George Washington. And while 21-5 would be a phenomenal record for a lot of teams, it rings mighty hollow for a team that has only played four games against Quads 1 and 2.
At this point, George Mason has almost no realistic path to an at-large bid.
GMU has a Wins Above Bubble score of minus-1.54. They would need to win all five remaining games on their regular-season schedule just to get that score back up to a zero, per Torvik WAB estimates. Using KenPom win probabilities, there is barely even a one percent chance they'll win all five—and even if they did, there would still be work to do in the A-10 tournament.
It's a bummer, though. Early in the season, it looked like Mason could be gearing up for some more magic for the 20-year anniversary of their miracle run to the 2006 Final Four. But it's Auto Bid or Bust.
Stock Up: TCU Horned Frogs
3 of 9
Resume: 16-9, NET: 45, RES: 49.0, QUAL: 51.7
Past Week: W vs. Iowa State, W at Oklahoma State
TCU has been all over the map this season.
The Horned Frogs opened the year with a terrible, Quad 4 loss at home to New Orleans.
Less than two weeks later, they almost upset Michigan. And two weeks after that, they went out to San Diego and upset both Florida and Wisconsin to win the Rady Children's Invitational.
Then they came home and took another bad loss to Notre Dame, but won the next six, including their Big 12 opener against Baylor. But they proceeded to lose six of the next eight, including bad road losses to Utah and Colorado.
At that point, the Horned Frogs were 13-9, outside the top 50 in all the metrics and looking close to dead. After the 62-55 home win over Iowa State and the 95-92 overtime win at Oklahoma State, though, TCU is very much alive and well with five Quad 1 wins.
Whether Saturday's win over the Pokes will still be a Quad 1 result at the end of the season remains to be seen, but TCU has built up quite the stockpile with a couple more big opportunities to come in the form of road games against UCF and Texas Tech.
Even if the Horned Frogs fail to win either of those games, though, taking care of business against the rest of the schedule—vs. West Virginia, vs. Arizona State, at Kansas State, vs. Cincinnati—just might be enough. It would at least have them very close heading into the Big 12 tournament.
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Stock Down: Oklahoma State Cowboys
4 of 9
Resume: 16-9, NET: 72, RES: 54.3, QUAL: 72.3
Past Week: L at Arizona State, L vs. TCU
As big as TCU's win was at Oklahoma State, that's how much damage it did to the Cowboys' case for a bid.
Things were looking up for the Pokes two weeks ago after their marquee win over BYU, but they've followed it up with three consecutive Ls.
The loss at Arizona was entirely expected, though it would've been nice to see them keep that one within 37 points.
The loss at Arizona State was much less acceptable, as the Sun Devils are nowhere close to the at-large conversation.
And the home loss to TCU was a double whammy that gave the Horned Frogs a season sweep of Oklahoma State, should it come down to a situation where the committee is deciding between those two teams for a spot in the field.
At this point, Oklahoma State's biggest problem is a lack of wins away from home worth mentioning. The Cowboys won neutral games against Northwestern and Grand Canyon and a road game against Utah, but none of those teams are in the projected field (or close to it).
Meanwhile, they've lost three games to teams not projected to dance—vs. Baylor, at Arizona State, Oklahoma on a neutral—among their nine total losses.
They have road games remaining against Colorado, Cincinnati and UCF, as well as home games against Kansas, West Virginia and Houston. Probably going to need to win four of the six to have any case for a bid, and that won't be easy.
Stock Up: Miami-Ohio RedHawks
5 of 9
Resume: 25-0, NET: 50, RES: 34.3, QUAL: 83.7
Past Week: W vs. Ohio
I've been doing this bracketology thing for a long time. This is my 14th season with Bleacher Report, and I had been doing it in an amateur capacity for at least a decade before that.
And I cannot recall a more polarizing bubble team than the RedHawks of Miami-Ohio.
For the pro-Miami camp, the argument hinges almost entirely on the zero in the loss column, which they maintained with a pretty convincing win over Ohio on Friday night. The RedHawks are now six wins away from completing an undefeated regular season, which almost never happens, regardless of strength of schedule.
Because of that zero, they do have resume metrics that all but mandate they be in the field.
The anti-Miami crowd would like you to know that this team has not played a single Quad 1 game, has just a 1-0 record against Quad 2 and has played one game all season against a team with a NET better than 135—beating Akron at home and trailing for the majority of that three-point victory.
Taking a page from Dory's optimistic outlook in Finding Nemo, the message for Miami-Ohio is simple: Keep piling up wins and let the committee sort out the rest.
If the RedHawks win their next six games, they should make the NCAA tournament, regardless of what happens in the MAC tournament.
If they go 5-1 from here, though, we shall see.
Stock Down: Syracuse's Opponents
6 of 9
California Golden Bears
Resume: 17-8, NET: 60, RES: 52.3, QUAL: 67.0
Past Week: L at Syracuse, W at Boston College
SMU Mustangs
Resume: 17-8, NET: 36, RES: 37.0, QUAL: 38.0
Past Week: W vs. Notre Dame, L at Syracuse
In a vacuum, losing at Syracuse isn't terrible. The Orange are ranked narrowly inside the NET top 75, so it's a Quad 1 result. It's also a game that Tennessee lost earlier this season.
But it's a game that a team on the bubble should win; a game that subtracts more as a loss than it would have added as a win. And both Cal and SMU are in worse shape than they were a week ago because of those missteps in the venue formerly known as the Carrier Dome.
Cal is in a weird spot now with four Quad 1 wins, but an 0-3 record against Quad 2 and four total losses (all on the road) against teams not projected to dance.
Wins over North Carolina (home), Miami-Florida (road) and UCLA (neutral) keep the Golden Bears in the conversation. But they probably need to win all five games left on their regular-season schedule, because there aren't any big opportunities remaining.
Meanwhile, SMU has quietly fallen into some bubble trouble.
The Mustangs have a bunch of respectable wins over top 125 foes, including the home win over North Carolina in early January. However, that was their only win in seven tries against top 40 competition, and they now have problematic losses to both Syracuse and LSU.
SMU is still in our projected field as a No. 10 seed, while Cal isn't too far gone on the wrong side of the bubble. It's possible that the head-to-head battle at Cal next Wednesday determines which of these two teams gets into the dance.
Stock Up: Miami (FL) Hurricanes
7 of 9
Resume: 20-5, NET: 35, RES: 31.7, QUAL: 40.3
Past Week: W vs. North Carolina, W at NC State
One week ago, the big question with Miami was: Where are the good wins?
The Hurricanes had victories at Syracuse, Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Ole Miss, which is a nice collection of road wins, albeit against a quartet of teams that are not in the mix for an at-large bid.
It's not like they were loading up on good home wins, either. Beating Stanford was as good as it got on that front, and that's not saying much.
All told, Miami was 18-5, but had only played (and lost) either three or four games against the projected field, depending on whether you viewed California as a tournament team.
Sooner or later, the 'Canes were going to need to actually beat a tournament-caliber team.
So, how about two such wins in one week?
They caught North Carolina fresh off its "emotional win over Duke" hangover on a night where Caleb Wilson tried to play through what ended up being a fractured hand. And then they made a wild comeback against NC State, trailing by seven in the final minute before winning on a trio of Tru Washington free throws with three seconds remaining.
Just like that, the Hurricanes have quite the tournament resume, with two more Quad 1 wins and an 8-4 record against Quads 1 and 2.
Even if they lose each of the three tough games left on the schedule (at Virginia, at SMU, vs. Louisville), they'll be dancing as long as they win the easier three (vs. Virginia Tech, at Florida State, vs. Boston College).
Stock Down: A Pair of Fading SEC Teams
8 of 9
Georgia Bulldogs
Resume: 17-8, NET: 39, RES: 44.7, QUAL: 43.0
Past Week: L vs. Florida, L at Oklahoma
Texas A&M Aggies
Resume: 17-8, NET: 43, RES: 48.0, QUAL: 33.0
Past Week: L vs. Missouri, L at Vanderbilt
For both Georgia and Texas A&M, nonconference play was…uninspiring.
The Bulldogs went 12-1, but their best wins came against Cincinnati, Xavier and Florida State. That'd be an impressive trio of victories in a lot of seasons, but not this one. Their nonconference SOS is down in the 300s.
Meanwhile, the Aggies went 10-3 with losses to UCF, Oklahoma State and SMU, all of whom are a bit bubbly in their own right. Florida State was also arguably A&M's best win, though maybe winning at Pitt was slightly more impressive. Either way, their NCSOS was only marginally better than Georgia's.
Both teams did get out to a solid start in SEC play, though, each sitting at 16-4 overall in late January.
But they've each dropped four of their last five games, plummeting back to the bubble—where we all know a terrible nonconference strength of schedule can be a deal-breaker with the selection committee.
They each had a tough game to win (Georgia vs. Florida; Texas A&M at Vanderbilt) this week, but also a game they should have won (Georgia at Oklahoma; Texas A&M vs. Missouri).
Georgia ended up getting blown out in both games, still searching for its first Quad 1A win of the season. The good (?) news is UGA still has road games against Kentucky and Vanderbilt and a home game against Alabama. Big opportunities for the Dawgs to prove they belong. (Or prove they don't.)
A&M's best wins (at Auburn, at Texas, at Georgia) are at least a little stronger than Georgia's, but still nothing close to an elite win on that resume. And that home loss to Missouri was maybe their worst misstep of the season to date. If they don't win either of their remaining games against Arkansas or Kentucky, the Aggies could be in some real trouble.
Stock Up: Multi-Bid Mountain West
9 of 9
San Diego State Aztecs
Resume: 18-6, NET: 41, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 42.3
Past Week: W vs. Nevada
New Mexico Lobos
Resume: 19-6, NET: 44, RES: 46.7, QUAL: 48.0
Past Week: W at Grand Canyon
Sometimes, teams on the bubble need a big week to move up the seed list.
But sometimes, teams on the bubble can gain ground by simply standing still and watching others crash around them.
For San Diego State and New Mexico—and the general dream of a three-bid Mountain West—it was a big week for residing in the latter camp.
SDSU's home win over Nevada was a solid Quad 2 outcome. Same goes for UNM's road win over Grand Canyon. The Aztecs and Lobos are now a combined 11-2 against that tier of teams, and definitely did help themselves out a bit in that regard.
For the most part, though, they got to sit back and benefit from the carnage.
In addition to all the Stock Down situations noted above, Virginia Tech took a terrible home loss to Florida State on Saturday, Santa Clara failed to capitalize on its home game against Gonzaga, Missouri lost at home to Texas and even Auburn is starting to look bubbly after its fourth consecutive loss.
Unfortunately, a landmine-filled road still remains for both of these Mountain West squads, including a head-to-head showdown on Feb. 28. Getting three teams into the dance could be tricky.
But whatever the odds were of at least a two-bid Mountain West heading into this past weekend, they are surely much better now.
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