10 Ways the NBA Would Be Different If the Luka Dončić Trade Never Happened
One year ago, the Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers, permanently and dramatically altering the landscape of the NBA.
The move sent Dallas spiraling to the lottery, where they won the chance to draft Cooper Flagg. And it instantly gave the Lakers one of the brighter futures in the league.
But those weren't the only dominoes to fall over the last 12 months. Below, you'll find 10 ways the NBA would've been different had the Mavs never traded Luka to LA.
Mavericks Would Still Be Contenders
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When Nico Harrison pulled the trigger on the unfathomable move that sent Luka and Maxi Kleber to Los Angeles in exchange for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a single first-round pick, Dallas was less than a year removed from an NBA Finals appearance.
During that 2024 postseason, Luka averaged 28.9 points and 8.1 assists, bringing his career playoff averages to 30.9 and 8.0. He proved, once again, that he was one of the best big-game players in basketball. And unsurprisingly, his impact translated into 2024-25.
Last season, when Dončić was on the floor, the Mavs were a whopping plus-11.3 points per 100 possessions. He was playing with a supporting cast that was tailor-made for him, courtesy of multiple shrewd moves to surround him with shooting and defense.
Had Harrison maintained the philosophy that helped him construct that roster, Dallas would still be a title contender. And he'd likely still be employed by the Mavs.
Nico Harrison Would Still Be With the Mavericks
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Perhaps the most obvious and direct bit of fallout from the Luka trade is Harrison eventually losing his job.
After months of trying to sell the unsellable move, by parroting "defense wins championships" and questioning Luka's conditioning and athleticism, the Mavericks eventually realized that the fans would never buy the narrative.
And frankly, they were right not to.
Dallas traded one of the greatest players and playmakers in NBA history. Not someone who could become that. A bona fide, all-time great at the time of the move. He was adored throughout the fan base. It seemed certain that he'd eventually win a title and maybe some MVPs for the Mavs.
Then, suddenly, and without a reasonable explanation, he was gone. And he was gone in exchange for a woefully inadequate trade return. He went to perhaps the most polarizing franchise in the league.
Ultimately, the trade proved unforgivable. The organization eventually realized it would never be able to move on with its architect at the helm. And Harrison was fired earlier this season.
Had he simply trusted his process over the years prior to 2024-25 and kept building a roster that made sense around Luka, Harrison would almost certainly still be with the Mavs.
Cooper Flagg Likely Wouldn't Be a Maverick
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Given the aforementioned net rating with Dončić on the floor, and the fact that Dallas was above .500 at the time of the trade, if Luka had been relatively healthy down the stretch, the Mavs probably wouldn't have been in the 2025 lottery.
And that, of course, means they wouldn't have won it and had the chance to take Cooper Flagg with the first overall pick.
If he'd gone to any of the teams that spent much of 2024-25 tanking, like the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets or New Orleans Pelicans, the destinies of those franchises would be far different.
LeBron James Would Still Be the Face of the Lakers
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For parts of his last couple seasons with the Lakers, there was a real argument that Anthony Davis had surpassed LeBron James and become the team's best player.
But the debate was close enough that LeBron's legacy and celebrity made him the pretty obvious call for "face of the franchise" status.
After the Luka trade, that dynamic almost instantly changed. Dončić was six years younger than AD and 14 years younger than LeBron. He was coming off a Finals appearance and was First Team All-NBA in five of his first six seasons.
Whether LeBron was ready to accept it or not, one of the most famous franchises in sports was now Luka's team.
Fortunately, for the Lakers, LeBron has indeed accepted it.
Anthony Davis Might Be Elsewhere
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Before the Lakers traded Davis to the Mavs, it was becoming clear that the LeBron-AD pairing was nearing its end as one that could lead a team to title contention.
Over the course of 2023-24 and 2024-25, LA was plus-2.0 points per 100 possessions when both were on the floor. For context, over the same span, the Oklahoma City Thunder were plus-11.7 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. The Denver Nuggets were plus-12.9 with Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray.
To put it plainly, a 2.0 net rating for your top duo just doesn't scream "contender."
So, if the Luka trade hadn't fallen into Rob Pelinka's lap, there's a pretty good chance that at some point between then and now, he would've gauged the market for Davis.
And although AD is past his prime, injury prone and sort of a relic of a previous era of NBA basketball, some other suitor would've been willing to give the Lakers some value for him.
Austin Reaves Might Be Elsewhere
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Or, if Pelinka had been hesitant to move one of his two biggest-name players, he almost certainly could've gotten a sizable return for Austin Reaves.
Something would've had to give. The pre-Luka Lakers weren't realistic threats to win it all. And with this organization, anything less than that is generally unacceptable.
Over the years, that's sometimes made the front office aggressive, to a fault. And the pressure might've pushed LA into a win-now move that cost it Reaves.
Oklahoma City Thunder Might Not Be Champs
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This one would've required a few dominos staying up. For one thing, Luka would've had to get and stay healthy for the stretch run in 2024-25. And the Mavs would've had to eventually meet the Oklahoma City Thunder in the playoffs.
But in the 2024 postseason, Luka and the perfectly tailored supporting cast around him beat the Thunder in the second round. Luka averaged 24.7 points, 10.5 rebounds and 8.7 assists for the series.
There aren't many players who can routinely create and expose matchup problems against the Thunder defense, but Luka did.
And while there was obviously no guarantee Dallas would eliminate OKC two years in a row, taking the Mavs out of the equation improved the Thunder's chances.
Kyrie Irving Might Not Have Torn His ACL
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This one may not be fair. Injuries, particularly something like a torn ACL, are almost completely unpredictable. And Kyrie Irving has certainly had his fair share of bad injury luck throughout his career.
But the departure of Luka absolutely increased the offensive burden on Kyrie's shoulders. And just over a month after the trade, he went down for the rest of the season (and probably all of this one).
Had Dončić remained on the team and Irving avoided the injury, again, Dallas likely would've been a legitimate title contender in 2025. During the 2,000-plus minutes those two played together, the Mavs were plus-8.2 points per 100 possessions.
The Lakers' Future Would Be Murky
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Even with Luka, the Lakers just aren't very good this year.
They're on pace for 50 wins, but they also have a negative point differential (and the worst point differential ever for a team on a 50-plus-win pace).
It's hard to get too worked up about it, though. Luka could still be a year or two away from his prime, and he's playing on a roster that doesn't make a lot of sense for his game.
Simply having him on the roster gives LA a bright future. Smart moves over the next couple years should make them a contender.
Had he not landed there, the Lakers might still be toiling away with two post-prime stars in LeBron and Davis. Reaves might've generated a little hope for the future, but even he's older than Dončić.
The post-LeBron era was quickly trending toward looking like the Lakers in the immediate aftermath of Kobe Bryant's departure. And those LA teams were dreadful.
Instead of heading down that path again, they have a perennial MVP candidate who's already taken the organizational mantle from James.
Luka Could Be Elsewhere
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Even if Harrison had realized how absurd the Lakers' final offer for Luka was, there's no guarantee he wouldn't have moved him in a different deal.
Harrison, obviously, had problems with Dončić, at least as a basketball player. For whatever reasons, Luka's ridiculous competitiveness and production weren't enough to overcome Harrison's thoughts on his defense and body.
If he didn't find a Luka trade ahead of last season's deadline, he may well have found one between then and now.
