Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline
Before the 2025 MLB trade deadline, Mason Miller (Athletics to San Diego Padres), Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins to Philadelphia Phillies), Eugenio Suárez (Arizona Diamondbacks to Seattle Mariners), Carlos Correa (Twins to Houston Astros) and Josh Naylor (Diamondbacks to Mariners) were among the biggest names traded.
Predicting who will (or won't) be traded before this season's trade deadline—which is approximately six months away—is an inexact science, to say the least. However, it's still a fun exercise, as long as it's taken with a grain of salt.
With all that acknowledged, here are some way-too-early predictions for the 2026 MLB trade deadline.
Minnesota Twins Trade Joe Ryan to San Diego Padres
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What would a trade deadline be without San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller taking a massive swing?
As is, the Padres could probably use another top-of-the-rotation starter if they hope to compete in a crowded NL West headlined by the two-time defending World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
When you add in that both Michael King and Nick Pivetta will have the chance to opt out and return to free agency following the 2026 season, Preller will be motivated to acquire another starter that can help maximize San Diego's chances to win it all next year and add insurance for 2027.
Ryan would fit the bill on both counts, as he's posted a 3.50 ERA and 10 K/9 since the start of the 2024 season. Additionally, the former All-Star can't become a free agent until after the 2027 season, so he would protect the Padres if they were to lose King and/or Pivetta in free agency next winter.
In B/R's latest top 100 prospects list, catcher Ethan Salas (No. 70) is the only player ranked by Joel Reuter. But Preller always seems to find more prospects to trade.
Washington Nationals Trade CJ Abrams to Los Angeles Dodgers
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Don't shoot the messenger, but five years after Andrew Friedman swung a massive trade that allowed him to acquire Trea Turner from the Nationals, he'll again land another gifted middle infielder from Washington.
Paul Toboni—the new president of baseball operations in D.C.—seems to be tearing things down to the studs, as evidenced by the deal sending ace MacKenzie Gore to the Texas Rangers last week. Washington's pitching was already bad, and without Gore, they look like a club headed for 100 losses in 2026.
If that indeed plays out, the Nationals will be one of the obvious sellers at the trade deadline. Shortstop CJ Abrams will naturally be a piece many teams have interest in, because he's flashed star potential, but hasn't reached his ceiling consistently.
Still, he posts consistently—he's had 600-plus plate appearances in three consecutive seasons—and is still only 25. Considering he won't be eligible to become a free agent until after the 2028 season, contenders will believe they can unlock him, both as a player and in terms of being a more mature human.
Before they signed Kyle Tucker, there was some thought the Dodgers could be a candidate to do a short-term, big-money deal with Bo Bichette to play second base and/or shortstop.
Obviously, once the Dodgers signed Tucker, Bichette joined the New York Mets. Still, middle infield questions remain for Los Angeles, at least relative to other spots on baseball's most loaded roster.
If the Dodgers traded for Abrams, he could take over at shortstop and push Mookie Betts—who is now 33—to the less stressful position of second base. Or the Dodgers could keep Betts at shortstop and have Abrams, he of the minus-45 career outs above average at shortstop, over to second base.
Luis Severino Gets Traded Back to New York
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Look, with a lineup that includes Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers and Jacob Wilson, among others, the Athletics are going to be one of the better hitting teams in the sport in 2026.
The problem is they will probably also be one of the five-worst pitching clubs, due to a mixture of not having enough talent and playing their home games at Sutter Health Park, which MLB Park Factors said was the second-most hitter-friendly park last year, trailing only Coors Field.
Luis Severino is the most accomplished pitcher on the staff for the team still calling Sacramento home indefinitely, but he was the best example of how hard it was to pitch at Sutter Health Park in 2025:
15 Home Starts: 2-9, 6.01 ERA
14 Road Starts: 6-2, 3.04 ERA
Perhaps Severino—who was vocal about not enjoying pitching at Sutter Health Park in his first season with the A's—will have better luck this season. If he does, that might only increase the thought of trading him.
Severino can opt out of his contract after the 2026 season. If he continues to dislike pitching in Sacramento as much as he did last year, he might do that just out of principle. If he's having a good year, he'll probably opt out because he can get a multi-year deal that guarantees him more total money than the $22 million he would make if he stays with the Athletics for a third year.
Our guess is even though the A's will be fun in 2026, they won't have the pitching to contend. Facing the prospects of losing Severino in the offseason, they'll trade him to a spot where he's more comfortable pitching at. Severino has previously had success pitching for both the Yankees and Mets, so they feel like early favorites to land him via trade in the summer.
Impact Right-Handed Hitters Will Be Hard To Find
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During December's MLB winter meetings, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was asked whether he ever remembers a time in his decades-long career as an executive where so few right-handed hitters were available.
"Yeah, last year," he joked.
It was a funny response, but it's significantly easier to find a left-handed bat than a right-handed one right now.
Consider that the Baltimore Orioles gave up Grayson Rodriguez—a pitcher who does have an injury history but is 26 and can't become a free agent until after the 2029 season—to acquire Taylor Ward.
Yes, Ward hit 36 home runs and drove in 103 runs last season, but he's a 32-year-old with a .766 career OPS that is entering a contract year. The O's seemingly paid a major price to get him for just one guaranteed season.
Perhaps if the Orioles' season doesn't go as planned, Ward will be back on the trade market this summer, but as things stand, it again looks like right-handed bats will be hard to come by. That will lead to those who are available being overvalued, as you could argue Ward was.
Ronald Acuña Jr. could technically become a free agent after the 2026 season, but the Atlanta Braves have laughably team-friendly $17 million club options on him for 2027 and 2028, so he's not going anywhere.
Yandy Diáz has a $10 million club option for 2027, and while you can never count anything out with the Rays, Tampa Bay won't feel like it has to trade its first baseman if it's contending.
Bo Bichette, Gleyber Torres, Luis Robert Jr., George Springer and Randy Arozarena all could be free agents after the 2026 season, but each plays for a team likely to be buying, as opposed to selling.
The Milwaukee Brewers will likely be at the forefront of the NL playoff picture, so they probably aren't going to consider offers for catcher William Contreras, who can become a free agent after the 2027 campaign.
It could be that some contenders try to take advantage of the lack of right-handed hitters available and do a bit of buying and selling.
If the Phillies feel top prospect Aidan Miller is ready to take over at third base, maybe they'll trade Alec Bohm—who did drive in 97 runs in both 2023 and 2024—as opposed to letting him walk in the offseason.
Maybe the Chicago Cubs will be willing to consider dealing Nico Hoerner or the switch-hitting Ian Happ. Teoscar Hernández doesn't have a path to playing first base or DH with the Dodgers, and he's slipped enough as an outfielder that maybe Friedman would listen on him.
But as we try to project what the market will look like in a few months, you'd better hope your team isn't going to be looking for a right-handed bat this summer.
Tigers Retain Tarik Skubal
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One of the reasons the Tigers have at least not hung up on teams that have called on two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal this offseason is that if he begins his contract year in Detroit, it's going to be virtually impossible to trade him during the season.
We can debate whether president of baseball operations Scott Harris has done enough this offseason to help the Tigers go from a team that can compete in the weak AL Central to a team that can win a World Series in Skubal's potential final campaign in Detroit.
However, A.J. Hinch's squad almost certainly is going to be in the playoff picture enough that there would be a mutiny among players and fans if they considered trading baseball's best arm in the summer.
Beyond that, it would take an earth-shattering amount to acquire Skubal. It would be risky to trade what it would take to get him this winter, but at least you would get a full season with him and have the ability to extend a qualifying offer to him after the season.
Major-market clubs like the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees aren't going to gut their farm system this summer to acquire Skubal as a rental when they can just spend dollars on him in the offseason.
Considering all those factors, if Skubal takes the ball for the Tigers on Opening Day, he's going to finish the season in Detroit. Next offseason, the Tigers will be able to give him a QO and recoup draft-pick compensation if the Scott Boras client indeed signs elsewhere in free agency.
Of course, we can debate why the Tigers were a major spender a decade ago under the late-Mike Ilitch but operate like a small-market team under his son, Christopher. It shouldn't be seen as fait accompli that the Tigers won't re-sign Skubal next offseason given his greatness, but here we are.
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