Why Trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo Isn't the No-Brainer You Think It Is
The eyes of the NBA world remain fixed on Milwaukee as we await the fate of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Now officially a 10-time All-Star, his future with the Bucks remains as cloudy as ever, especially with the team outside of both the playoff and play-in pictures even in a weak East.
Should he become available, he would easily be the best player on the trade market.
Contending teams looking to go all-in for his services should be wary, though. He is now six years removed from his last MVP season and there's a lot of mileage already on his 31-year-old tires.
Trading for Antetokounmpo should be viewed as a calculated risk, as the vision we have of him hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy simply doesn't match the current player we're seeing, with future contract concerns needing to be factored in as well.
Is Antetokounmpo Still a Superstar?
Make no mistake, Antetokounmpo is still one of the very best basketball players in the world. A two-time MVP, 10-time All-Star, five-time All-Defensive team member and Defensive Player of the Year, he is as physically dominant as any player in the association since early 2000s Shaquille O'Neal.
We saw Antetokounmpo carry the Bucks to a championship in 2021. Unfortunately, the past five years haven't been nearly as fruitful.
Now in his 13th season, he is four years on from his last All-Defensive team. Durability is starting to become a concern, as he reached 80-plus games three times during his first four seasons, yet hasn't hit this number since 2016-17, nearly a decade ago.
Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Dončić have all surpassed Antetokounmpo in "best player in the world" conversations. Victor Wembanyama could make his case, as could a healthy Jayson Tatum.
Antetokounmpo's raw numbers have dipped this season (28.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 0.8 blocks), down to eighth in the NBA in scoring after finishing second a year ago.
It would still be fair to label Antetokounmpo a superstar, but for how much longer?
Durability Concerns
It's rare to find any NBA star who hasn't dealt with injuries lately. The timing of these injuries matters, however.
Two of the past three postseasons have ended with Antetokounmpo hurt, as he suffered a back injury against the Miami Heat in 2023 and couldn't suit up at all due to a strained calf against the Indiana Pacers in 2024. A strained calf also wiped out nearly nine full games over a few weeks this past December for Antetokounmpo, an injury that should be extremely concerning considering what it can turn into.
If a team is trading for Antetokounmpo, the expectation is a title. His recent lack of durability at the end of a long season should give franchises some pause.
This isn't 37-year-old Stephen Curry who can dominate a game without ever stepping inside the arc. We'll likely see 37-year-old Kevin Durant splashing mid-range jumpers for as long as he wants to keep playing. Through his age-31 season, only 20.3 percent of LeBron James' shots came from outside the three-point line. Since he hit his early 30's, this number has jumped to 30.3 percent.
Antetokounmpo doesn't have the luxury of a reliable mid-range jumper or dead-eye three-point shot (28.6 percent for his career). His style of downhill, physical basketball isn't going to age well, even if he should have a few really good years left.
Future Max Contract Concerns
Young stars in their 20s such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić, Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards are all no-brainer max players who you give up the farm (or Anthony Davis and one first-round pick) for if given the chance. No hesitations.
At age 31 and going into Year 14 this fall, Antetokounmpo no longer falls under this category.
Owed $58.6 million in 2026-27, Antetokounmpo has a $62.8 million player option for his age-33 season. He'll most likely turn this down and will be eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million extension on October 1, 2026, essentially the same deal Gilgeous-Alexander signed with the Oklahoma City Thunder this past summer.
The difference?
Gilgeous-Alexander signed his extension at age 26 coming off a season where he won MVP, Finals MVP, led the NBA in scoring and carried OKC to a title. Antetokounmpo is going to get the same contract, although his will take him up until age 36.
Paying a player in his mid-30s whose game is based on physicality over $70 million a year certainly carries a lot of risk.
Antetokounmpo Trade Comps
If we're looking at where Antetokounmpo is at in his career and the role he's projected to play over the next five years, two comparisons come to mind.
Kevin Garnett and Shaquille O'Neal were both 31 when they were traded from the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers to Miami Heat, respectively.
Garnett spent 12 years with the Wolves, making 10 All-Star games, taking home an MVP in 2004 and putting up some gaudy individual numbers.
This is an eerily similar career arc to Antetokounmpo, another power forward who entered the NBA as a teenager.
O'Neal hit his prime in his late 20s, taking home MVP in 2000 and making 11 All-Star teams in his first 12 seasons. His physical dominance (even in a time where future Hall of Fame centers were prevalent) was unmatched by anyone else in the NBA, something that can also be said about Antetokounmpo today.
Garnett and O'Neal were still both All-Star talents moving into their 30s who helped lead their new team to titles. O'Neal even finished second in MVP voting during his first year with the Miami Heat.
Still, it was clear both players had their best years behind them, which is the case with Antetokounmpo now.
The Celtics' version of Garnett and Heat version of O'Neal were both tremendous players, but not the ones we'll ultimately remember.
Trade Value
The Bucks should be asking for a king's ransom in trade packages for Antetokounmpo, assuming he's the best player available.
Teams shouldn't be willing to offer up four or five first-round picks in addition to young talent, however, as Antetokounmpo is a few years past this value now.
Recent injury history, contract concerns and style of play moving into his mid-30s should all be taken into consideration by the New York Knicks, Miami Heat or whatever team makes a run at the star forward.
Antetokounmpo is still a top-five player in the world and one of the greatest talents we've seen over the last decade. He's an alpha who can lead a team to a championship, provided there's enough shooting and another star (or two) around him.
The days of blindly selling the farm and giving up every penny in contract negotiations should be considered over. History tells us that a decline is coming for Antetokounmpo, meaning buyers should beware.
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