College Football Coaches on Hot-Seat Watch Entering 2026 Offseason
The pressure to win at a high level in college football has never been higher.
In short, that's because of money. Yes, there are television contracts that guarantee many millions of dollars to programs, yet the haphazard beginning to the NIL era is forcing schools to seek unparalleled donor funds in order to build, maintain and sustain a competitive roster.
And when people are writing big checks, they want results.
Naturally, that will always be an issue somewhere. As the 2025 campaign soon moves into the background and the 2026 offseason begins, there are seven places in particular to monitor hot-seat conversations.
Dave Aranda, Baylor
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Six years into his time at Baylor, Dave Aranda has overseen a roller coaster.
Baylor finished 2-7 in his first season, then the Bears jumped to 12-2 with a Big 12 title and Sugar Bowl victory in 2021. They trudged to 6-7 the next year before tumbling to 3-9 in 2023.
Aranda, a defensive coordinator by nature, took those play-calling duties in 2024 as Baylor climbed to 8-5. But then in 2025, the unit regressed badly as the Bears missed a bowl appearance at 5-7.
The proverbial rope simply must be thinning in Waco.
Aranda has ceded play-calling duties to new coordinator Joe Klanderman for 2026, and Baylor has landed a commitment from big-name QB transfer DJ Lagway. There is real hope for improvement next season.
Because of the up-and-down reality of Aranda's tenure, however, it's also reasonable to suggest it's a decisive year.
Bill O'Brien, Boston College
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Given the history of the school, hot-seat whispers around Bill O'Brien have seemed premature. Boston College doesn't fire coaches after two years.
Three, though? We must be ready for that conversation.
O'Brien inherited a competitive—not great, but competitive—team, and the Eagles put together a 7-6 record in 2024. But this recent year, they plummeted to 2-10 while dealing with QB issues and a porous defense.
The good news is Boston College has committed to making "significant investments" in the football program.
The challenge is the Eagles are trending toward 25-plus incoming and outgoing transfers. O'Brien and his staff will be working with a revamped roster in 2026, but another poor season would be unwelcomed news as money is poured in.
Mike Norvell, Florida State
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This is a flaming hot seat.
When the Seminoles opened the 2025 season with an overpowering upset of Alabama, it appeared Mike Norvell had fixed Florida State—again.
Norvell soared from 3-6 in 2020 to 5-7, 10-3 and 13-1 with an ACC crown and inglorious snub from the College Football Playoff. But then, the Seminoles tanked from a near-perfect year to 2-10 in 2024. He survived that horrible season, dove into the transfer portal and came up with the stunning win over Bama.
That, unfortunately, became the highlight of the 2025 campaign. Florida State lost four straight—one to rival Miami—after a 3-0 start, and late setbacks to North Carolina State and rival Florida kept the 5-7 Seminoles out of a bowl.
On the heels of two postseason-less years, Norvell is entering a make-or-break situation for his FSU future in 2026.
Mike Locksley, Maryland
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Maryland opened the season with a 4-0 surge, generating some optimism behind true freshman QB Malik Washington.
The positivity was short-lived for Mike Locksley's team, though.
Starting with a tight loss to Washington, the Terps dropped eight consecutive games to close the year. Maryland finished as the worst red-zone offense in the country, and only Purdue and Rutgers had worse defenses in the Big Ten.
The school decided to retain Locksley and, like Boston College, said it would commit more money to its NIL support. On paper, that's good news.
Nevertheless, next season will be his eighth—and Maryland went 4-8 with a 1-8 conference mark in both of the last two years. Locksley is probably also facing a make-or-break type of outlook in 2026.
Bill Belichick, North Carolina
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The curmudgeon vibe would be cute if North Carolina was winning games. The distractions around Bill Belichick could be disregarded, too.
But the tone of the narrative isn't great when the Tar Heels finish 4-8.
TCU, UCF and Clemson all hammered UNC early in 2025, and the Triangle schools—Duke, NC State and Wake Forest—swept the Heels. North Carolina only defeated Charlotte, Richmond and awful Syracuse and Stanford teams.
In its controversial hiring of Belichick, the school believed his Super Bowl-winning reputation would be attractive and that he could run an NFL-style program. Perhaps he's learned from the hard lessons over the last 13 months and successfully adapts to a chaotic environment in college football.
So far, however, not so good.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
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For better or worse, Shane Beamer has called his shot.
"I do know next year at this time, we're going to be sitting here next year on this Tuesday night watching the Playoff rankings to see where we are in the rankings show," Beamer said in November. "And we're going to be firmly in the mix for a College Football Playoff berth next year at this time."
Bold, undoubtedly—especially after a dismal 4-8 record with a 1-8 mark in the SEC. Squandering a 27-point lead at Texas A&M and falling to rival Clemson in November sent South Carolina into the offseason on bitter notes, too.
The schedule does not relax much in 2026, though. It would be incredibly impressive for the Gamecocks to meet Beamer's prediction of CFP contention.
And if South Carolina has a sub-.500 season for the third time in four years, that may spell the end of Beamer's time in Columbia.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
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Between a season of musical chairs at quarterback, an unrelenting schedule and a school with a reputation for favoring stability, Luke Fickell having another year at Wisconsin is unsurprising.
That's the long version.
The short version: He'd better start winning.
Fickell looked like a home-run hire for the Badgers in 2023, but they've proceeded to manage 7-6, 5-7 and 4-8 records. Although the defense has been solid annually, the offense—which averaged 12.8 points, the lowest by a power-conference team, in 2025—has consistently wrecked UW's upside.
Wisconsin is banking on Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph, an exciting dual-threat QB, emerging as the solution to its offensive woes.
Fickell's job probably depends on him, too.
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