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Top 10 MLB Free Agents' Ideal Landing Spot and Contract Predictions
Back in mid-November, we published our original top 25 free-agent contract projections and landing spots predictions.
Now that the calendar has flipped to 2026, it's getting late for some of the top names still remaining on the board, along with contenders hopeful to bolster their rosters before spring training.
Here are updated contract projections and landing spot predictions for the top 10 remaining free agents.
1. Kyle Tucker, RF
1 of 10
2025 Stats: .266/.377/.464, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 87 BB, .841 OPS, 4.5 WAR
Age in 2026: 29
Original Contract Prediction: 10 years, $360 million with player opt-out available after 2029
Updated Contract Prediction: Eight years, $288 million with player opt-out available after 2029
Original Team Prediction: Yankees
Updated Team Prediction: Blue Jays
Tucker has always been an awkward No. 1 overall free agent because the incumbent Cubs were never expected to be serious about retaining him, while he seemed to be a fallback option for clubs like the Phillies and Yankees if they weren't able to re-sign their stars.
Given the lack of teams that seem to have Tucker as their top priority, we've downgraded our contract projection for the 29-year-old to an eight-year deal, as opposed to the original 10-season projection. He can probably live with that, especially if he still gets an opt-out clause.
Tucker is a native of Tampa Bay, but there really hasn't been buzz tying him to the Rays. However, he visited nearby Dunedin—the spring training home of the Blue Jays—in early December.
Tucker could be the piece to help get Toronto over the top after they came so close to winning it all a season ago.
2. Bo Bichette, INF
2 of 10
2025 Stats: .311/.357/.483, 18 HR, 94 RBI, 40 BB, .840 OPS, 3.8 WAR
Age in 2026: 28
Original Contract Prediction: Seven years, $210 million
Updated Contract Prediction: Three years, $120 million with player opt-outs available after 2026 and 2027
Original Team Prediction: Blue Jays
Updated Team Prediction: Dodgers
After signing corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year deal, it appears the Blue Jays could pivot—maybe to Tucker—rather than bringing back Bo Bichette. Toronto could roll with Andrés Giménez and Ernie Clement up the middle, instead of making a major commitment to Bichette.
Perhaps the left knee sprain that cost Bichette most of September and the entire American League postseason has scared some teams off. But even if teams view him more as a second baseman than a shortstop, this is a 27-year-old who has led the AL in hits twice (2021, 2022) and would have a third time if not for his injury this past year. One would think teams would be lining up to sign Bichette.
The good thing for Bichette, though, is that, given his youth, he can consider taking a lucrative short-term deal that allows him to return to the market in a year or two without a qualifying offer attached, and perhaps with a cleaner health picture.
What a story it would be if the first game that Bichette plays after Toronto's crushing Game 7 loss in the World Series is against the team that they lost to, the Dodgers. Los Angeles could make out like bandits, giving Bichette the same deal that Alex Bregman signed with the Red Sox last year, and having him be their starting second baseman while knowing he has shortstop in his bag of tools.
3. Alex Bregman, 3B
3 of 10
2025 Stats: .273/.360/.462, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 51 BB, .821 OPS, 3.5 WAR
Age in 2026: 32
Original Contract Prediction: Five years, $135 million
Updated Contract Prediction: Five years, $135 million
Original Team Prediction: Tigers
Updated Team Prediction: Red Sox
There was a point early this offseason where it seemed like the Red Sox might be better off pivoting to a power bat like Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso. However, Schwarber returned to the Phillies, while Alonso wound up with the division-rival Orioles.
Bregman—who the Red Sox won't get anything for if he leaves in free agency—makes sense. Bregman is considered one of the best clubhouse presences in baseball, and posted an .821 OPS in his first season in Boston. If Craig Breslow re-signs Bregman, the Red Sox will be a trendy World Series pick.
We are a little skeptical, however, that Bregman will get the same type of money as Schwarber or Alonso. Schwarber had a slew of teams seriously in on him, most notably the incumbent Phillies, who were hell-bent on re-signing him after he clubbed 56 home runs in 2025. Alonso had an Orioles team that missed out on Schwarber pay him more than what was expected by many. As respected as Bregman is, he may not have the same type of leverage.
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4. Framber Valdez, LHP
4 of 10
2025 Stats: 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 187 K, 192 IP, 4.0 WAR
Age in 2026: 32
Original Contract Prediction: Four years, $114 million with $25 million club option for 2030
Updated Contract Prediction: Four years, $114 million
Original Team Prediction: Cubs
Updated Team Prediction: Cubs
The incumbent Astros have already pivoted to Tatsuya Imai, and it's fair to conclude that his controversial finish in Houston and qualifying offer being attached to him have suppressed Framber Valdez's market.
Still, this is someone who has logged 176 or more innings four years in a row, and prior to his second-half swoon, he had a 2.75 ERA over his first 19 starts. Valdez may not get the term that he wants, given some of the concerns and the fact that he's a bit older than some other available options, but the lefty should still do well.
The Cubs—a team that has disgusted their fanbase with their lack of moves so far this offseason—remain a strong fit, as do the Mets and Orioles.
5. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B
5 of 10
2025 Stats: .272/.334/.480, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 57 BB, .813 OPS, 4.9 WAR
Age in 2026: 30
Original Contract Prediction: Five years, $135 million
Updated Contract Prediction: Five years, $135 million
Original Team Prediction: Mets
Updated Team Prediction: Mets
Last offseason, it was pretty clear Juan Soto was going to play in New York, it was just a matter of whether it would be for the Yankees or Mets.
Bellinger isn't going to sniff the 15-year, $765 million deal Soto ultimately signed with the Mets, but his free agency may also come down to the Yankees or Mets.
On one hand, Bellinger posted a .909 OPS in home games this past season, as opposed to .715 on the road. He should be incentivized to continue to play his home games at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees also won't get anything for him in free agency if he leaves because he wasn't eligible for the qualifying offer, something that surely has to be a consideration for Brian Cashman and company.
On the other hand, nothing has gotten done yet, and the crosstown-rival Mets have needs in the outfield and at first base after trading Brandon Nimmo and allowing the aforementioned Alonso to leave in free agency. Bellinger could be the second notable Yankee to bolt for the Mets in as many winters.
6. Ranger Suárez, LHP
6 of 10
2025 Stats: 12-8, 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 151 K, 157.1 IP, 4.0 WAR
Age in 2026: 30
Original Contract Prediction: Four years, $110 million with player opt-out available after 2027
Updated Contract Prediction: Four years, $110 million with player opt-out available after 2027
Original Team Prediction: Blue Jays
Updated Team Prediction: Orioles
Back on Dec. 5, ESPN's Jeff Passan reported "teams in the mix for Suarez believe he's the next big-time starter off the board." A month later, the Scott Boras client remains available.
Suárez is such a difficult free agent to figure out because he's spent time on the injured list with back-related issues in three of the last four years, and his average fastball velocity dipped from 93.4 mph in 2023 to 91.3 mph in 2025.
At the same time, he's thrived as both a starter and a reliever on the biggest stages. When the Phillies needed someone to close out their 2022 NL pennant, they turned to Suárez. He's made his fair share of big starts as well and has a 1.48 ERA across 42.2 career postseason innings.
Questions about how he'll hold up as he ages will limit the number of years that the former All-Star can get, but the Orioles, Cubs, and Mets continue to be great fits for the long-time Phillie.
7. Zac Gallen, RHP
7 of 10
2025 Stats: 13-15, 4.83 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 175 K, 192 IP, 1.1 WAR
Age in 2026: 30
Original Contract Prediction: Two years, $45 million with player opt-out available after 2026
Updated Contract Prediction: Two years, $45 million with player opt-out available after 2026
Original Team Prediction: Diamondbacks
Updated Team Prediction: Angels
Rather than bringing Zac Gallen back, the incumbent Diamondbacks instead chose to sign another familiar face, giving Merrill Kelly a two-year, $40 million deal. That deal sets the baseline for Gallen, and also probably means that the Snakes will let Gallen leave after giving him a qualifying offer.
MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported last month that "the Angels, Giants and Tigers are among the teams" who had interest in Gallen. The Giants are probably out after signing Tyler Mahle to a one-year, $10 million deal, but the other two clubs—along with teams like the Cubs and Orioles, if they don't end up with Valdez or Suárez—still are fits.
The Angels are clearly very invested in 2026, with both general manager Perry Minasian and manager Kurt Suzuki operating in contract years. If the Halos were able to get Gallen back on track, they could actually have a decent rotation with him, Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano, Reid Detmers and Grayson Rodriguez.
8. Eugenio Suárez, 3B
8 of 10
2025 Stats: .228/.298/.526, 49 HR, 118 RBI, 46 BB, .824 OPS, 3.8 WAR
Age in 2026: 34
Original Contract Prediction: Two years, $43 million
Updated Contract Prediction: Two years, $43 million
Original Team Prediction: Angels
Updated Team Prediction: Angels
The Mariners haven't necessarily pivoted from Eugenio Suárez, but when considering his future, it's hard to escape his splits before and after being reacquired by Seattle this past summer:
106 games with Diamondbacks: .248 batting average, 36 HRs, 87 RBI, .897 OPS
53 games with Mariners: .189 batting average, 13 HRs, 31 RBI, .682 OPS
There is clearly mutual respect between Suárez and the Mariners, but over two stints with the team, he has a .741 OPS, well below his .792 career average. Sitting on 325 career home runs, Suárez could opt for greener hitting pastures.
Suárez spent the first seven years of his career with the Reds, and he would be a great fit for Cincinnati's lineup if he were willing to move off of third base. But the two-time All-Star would have the chance to continue playing third base with the Angels, all while replacing the right-handed production Los Angeles lost when they traded Taylor Ward to the O's.
9. J.T. Realmuto, C
9 of 10
2025 Stats: .257/.315/.384, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 35 BB, .700 OPS, 2.1 WAR
Age in 2026: 35
Original Contract Prediction: Three years, $45 million
Updated Contract Prediction: Two years, $28 million with $11 million club option for 2028
Original Team Prediction: Phillies
Updated Team Prediction: Phillies
Back on Dec. 19, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported that the Phillies and Realmuto were "locked in a standoff."
The problem for Realmuto is that another team who is hell-bent on him becoming their catcher hasn't emerged, at least not publicly. That doesn't leave the three-time All-Star with a ton of leverage in negotiations. So he may end up having to settle for a third-year club option, as opposed to a guaranteed third season.
It's perhaps not impossible that the Phillies pivot to Bichette, Bregman or another free agent, and take a step back at catcher. But it's hard to imagine Realmuto suiting up for another team next season.
10. Lucas Giolito, RHP
10 of 10
2025 Stats: 10-4, 3.41 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 121 K, 145 IP, 2.0 WAR
Age in 2026: 31
Original Contract Prediction: Two years, $43 million with $20 million club option for 2028
Updated Contract Prediction: Two years, $43 million with $20 million club option for 2028
Original Team Prediction: Yankees
Updated Team Prediction: Yankees
Lucas Giolito told Rob Bradford of Baseball Isn't Boring that he was completely healthy in December, but he wasn't available for the postseason because he dealt with an elbow injury.
That came after he missed all of 2024 after having an internal brace procedure on that right elbow. Some teams are going to be scared off by that recent injury history.
Ironically, it could be the Yankees—a team with injury questions surrounding Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, Clark Schmidt and Carlos Rodón—that make the most sense for Giolito. If they're willing to consider another pitcher with a lengthy injury history via trade in Edward Cabrera, why would they shy away from Giolito?
If not the Yankees, any of the teams we've mentioned with Valdez, Suárez and Gallen would make sense for Giolito.
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