Odds of Each Top Remaining MLB Trade Target Being Dealt on Deadline Day
For the likes of Yoenis Cespedes and Carlos Gonzalez, 4 p.m. ET can't come soon enough on Friday.
Once the clock strikes four, the trade deadline will have passed, and Cespedes, Gonzalez and all the other stars on the block will finally know where they'll be spending the rest of the 2015 season.
In the process of setting the line for the likelihood that each of the top MLB trade targets will be dealt on deadline day, we considered an assortment of factors.
The most important one was the contract situation of a given player. Simply put, clubs have significantly more incentive to part ways with a big leaguer who is about to hit the free-agent market as opposed to a player who still is under team control for multiple seasons.
2015 performance also factored into the equation. Plus, the relative strength or weakness of the trade market for the player's particular position was also part of the calculation.
In the end, no trade target had higher odds of getting moved than Cespedes, who appears set for his third swap in a calendar year. Meanwhile, no team had more players on the list than the San Diego Padres.
Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds
1 of 9
It sounds like Aroldis Chapman, the electric closer of the Cincinnati Reds, is in for an uneventful deadline day.
According to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com, the "chances of [the] Reds trading him are down to slim and zilch." Stark adds that while the "asking price remains heavy" for the Cuban, the San Francisco Giants, the New York Yankees, the Houston Astros and the Arizona Diamondbacks are all still in the mix.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported "the Diamondbacks are said to have made a proposal, and are awaiting word from the Reds."
It makes plenty of sense that the Reds would slap a lofty price tag on the lefty. After all, the closer, who is sporting an absurd mark of 15.9 strikeouts per nine innings, can't become a free agent until after the 2016 season. As a result, Cincinnati also has the option of looking to trade him this winter or next summer.
The Odds: 9-1
James Shields, SP, San Diego Padres
2 of 9
As ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reported, the San Diego Padres "really want to move" James Shields. However, there are at least three compelling reasons why the club's brass won't get its wish.
The first is that Shields' deal is seriously back-loaded. The righty is earning $10 million in 2015 but rakes in $21 million in each of the next three seasons. Plus, he has a $16 million team option (with a $2 million buyout) in 2019. That's a lot of change for a starter who has reeled off a 4.90 ERA on the road in 2015.
The Padres front office will also have to weigh just how wise it is to move a player who only just signed a free-agent deal in the winter. As ESPN Insider Buster Olney noted, such a move could discourage free agents from signing with the club in the future.
The Odds: 9-1
Craig Kimbrel, RP, San Diego Padres
3 of 9
Money looms as a potential roadblock to any swap involving Craig Kimbrel.
The closer, who has locked up 30 saves in 31 tries for the San Diego Padres, is under contract for at least two more seasons:
- 2015: $9 million
- 2016: $11 million
- 2017: $13 million
- 2018: $13 million team option ($1 million buyout)
Aside from his remaining salary, there's also the cost in terms of prospects. Per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Houston Astros are one of the clubs in on the reliever, but the American League West squad is in no rush "to meet the Padres' asking price."
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the New York Yankees have also checked in on the right-hander. But as Heyman adds, the Bronx wouldn't be "the most logical or likely landing spot," as the Yanks already have a couple of bullpen aces in Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller.
The Odds: 4-1
.jpg?w=256 "MLB Farm System Rankings")
Andrew Cashner, SP, San Diego Padres
4 of 9
Andrew Cashner is yet another San Diego Padres pitcher who lands a spot on this list.
With the right-hander earning $4.05 million in 2015 and being arbitration-eligible in each of the next two seasons, Cashner is much more than a rental. However, he hasn't done much in 2015 to boost his trade value. In 20 starts, he has posted a 4.13 ERA.
According to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Houston Astros have called about Cashner. But as Lin notes, it's actually one of his teammates—Tyson Ross—whom Houston is really targeting.
The Odds: 3-1
Carlos Gonzalez, RF, Colorado Rockies
5 of 9
Carlos Gonzalez has taken a two-by-four to the National League in July, cracking 11 bombs this month.
That's one way for the Venezuelan to raise his trade value. But even with his monster month, there's no guarantee that Gonzalez has hit his way off the last-place Colorado Rockies.
As Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reported via Twitter, "a source familiar with #Rockies thinking believes they're more likely to trade Carlos Gonzalez this winter than this week." Waiting to move CarGo until the offseason could prove to be a risky move for the Rockies.
Gonzalez has been healthy in 2015, but he's dealt with all kinds of injury issues in the recent past. The left-handed hitter appeared in just 70 games last year and in 110 contests the season before that.
The Odds: 2-1
Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati Reds
6 of 9
It seems as though the clock is ticking on Jay Bruce's eight-year tenure with the Cincinnati Reds.
As ESPN Insider Buster Olney reported, the Reds are "willing" to send the 28-year-old to the New York Mets in exchange for Zack Wheeler. Such a move would be a win-win for both clubs.
In Wheeler, the Reds would be adding a promising starter who is currently on the shelf as he recovers from Tommy John surgery but won't become a free agent until after the 2020 season.
After the Mets' botched attempt to reel in Carlos Gomez, the team still needs to add some pop to the lineup, and acquiring Bruce would check that bullet point off the to-do list. The lefty hitter has gone yard 17 times, and his .486 slugging percentage is better than that of any Mets regular.
The Odds: 2-3
Tyson Ross, SP, San Diego Padres
7 of 9
The San Diego Padres have a whole slew of pitchers on the trade block, and none looks more likely to head out the door than Tyson Ross.
There's a good chance that Ross' next start could come as a member of the Chicago Cubs, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported via Twitter: "Club executives involved in the Tyson Ross talks are convinced the #Padres will trade him by deadline, and #Cubs are pushing hard."
The 28-year-old would be an ideal addition for the NL Central squad. With a 3.38 ERA in 22 starts, Ross would immediately boost the club in its playoff chase. He would also provide Chicago with a much-needed controllable starter, as he can't become a free agent until after the 2018 season.
The Odds: 1-3
Justin Upton, LF, San Diego Padres
8 of 9
Justin Upton has a sense of humor when it comes to the trade deadline.
As Joe Trezza of MLB.com explained, the San Diego Padres left fielder dished out fake hugs to the rest of the squad after the first inning on Thursday to make it look like he had been traded.
"That was funny," Upton said, via Trezza. "That's what happens when you tweet everything."
Upton could well be handing out some hugs for real, as the Pads open up a three-game weekend set with the Miami Marlins.
Even after winning six of its last 10 contests, San Diego still sits seven-and-a-half games out of the second wild-card spot. Meanwhile, Upton, who is about to become a free agent, could potentially leave at the end of the season if the Padres don't pull the trigger on a trade as soon as possible.
The Odds: 1-4
Yoenis Cespedes, LF, Detroit Tigers
9 of 9
It's difficult to comprehend a scenario in which Yoenis Cespedes ends the day still as a member of the Detroit Tigers.
When it comes to the market for position players, no one is as dynamic as the Cuban. Cespedes has a cannon of a right arm and all sorts of pop (28 doubles and 18 home runs). That skill set should make him a fit for any October hopeful that is looking to bolster its lineup.
From the Tigers perspective, there's almost no reason to hold onto the free-agent to-be. As Jon Morosi of Fox Sports notes, the Tigers can't even offer the left fielder a qualifying offer because of the terms of his contract. With Cespedes possibly only a matter of months from walking away from Motown for free, now is the perfect moment for the Tigers to cash in.
The Odds: 1-99
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
.jpg?w=480 "MLB Farm System Rankings")
.jpg?w=600 "Offseason Moves for Every Team 👉")
.png?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")
