Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 17's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice

MLB franchises have until Friday afternoon to finalize any last-second trades before the deadline. Most fantasy baseball leagues, however, offer a bit more leeway.

Some fantasy gamers are scrambling right along with MLB general managers to complete a transaction on Friday, but many leagues foster a mid-August end date. That doesn't mean everyone should dive into their Netflix queue over the next two weeks and wait until the final hour. 

Need saves? Get a closer now rather than digging yourself into a deeper hole. Don't treat trade season the way a college student does a thesis paper. Now is as good a time as ever to get something done.

Several stars have already swapped jerseys this week, and more will follow on Friday. Two former teammates—one already dealt and the other getting shopped—stand on opposite ends of the buy-low, sell-high equation.

Buy Low: Carlos Gomez, OF, Houston Astros

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

If you're going to push for Carlos Gomez, keep a tight lid on all negotiations so your players don't find out from fans during a game he's cruelly forced to finish. Then don't post the "done deal" on the league's message board before both sides actually finalize the deal. 

It'll take more than a middle infielder with a .281 on-base percentage and a pitcher recovering from Tommy John surgery, but see if Gomez's fantasy owner deals him in tandem with the Milwaukee Brewers, who shipped him to the Houston Astros on Thursday night. One of the deadline's most desirable commodities should remind everyone of his stardom over his final two months.

This was a perennial first-rounder in rotisserie circles this season. The outfielder hit .284 over each of the past two seasons, following a 24-homer, 40-steal breakout campaign with a slightly depreciated 23 bombs and 34 steals last year. This year, however, he's batting .262 with eight homers and seven swipes.

Per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, the New York Mets backed out on the rumored deal due to a hip issue separate from the hamstring injury that forced an early trip to the disabled list. While the 29-year-old sat a couple of games in June, he hasn't missed any action in July.

Don't pay full price for Gomez, but see if this development frazzles the person possessing Gomez. Although certainly a risk, he's a five-category stud at his best.

Sell High: Gerardo Parra, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

The Brewers would be foolish not to dangle Gerardo Parra, and the same goes for fantasy players. Although a valuable fielder who hits for contact with decent power and speed, he's never represented more than an extra outfielder before his 2015 breakout.

Running away with Khris Davis' job, the 28-year-old is hitting .328/.369/.517—well above his career .279/.330/.407 slash line. With nine homers through 100 games, he's one long ball away from matching his personal high.

Only five outfielders—Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton and J.D. Martinez—have a higher weighted on-base average (wOBA) than Parra, who is making a case for this year's most valuable waiver-wire add. He's only gotten hotter in July, hitting .435 with four homers, four steals and 22 RBI.

His value will never soar higher, making this the ideal time to cash out. The unlikely star has received help from a .372 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is well above his career .327 clip. Considering his 5.7 walk percentage and limited power/speed ceiling, he needs a high average to excel.

When the average falls, even if he hits a strong .285 the rest of the way, he'll again look more like a fourth or fifth outfielder than stud.

Buy Low: Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs

Andrew Nelles/Associated Press

Jorge Soler is having the True Detective of sophomore seasons, following a gripping arrival with a boring, messy encore. Like the HBO show, Soler's owners keep subjecting themselves to a subpar product with last year fresh in their memories. Both, however, are running out of time to turn their corners.

True Detective creator Nic Pizzolatto has whiffed with convoluted, loosely connecting storylines following bureaucratic procedure, tranquilized Vince Vaughn and mopey Tim Riggins. Also, something about some Stan guy nobody remembers.

Yet Pizzolatto hasn't struck out as much as the Chicago Cubs outfielder, who has generated an alarming 31.8 strikeout percentage through 70 games. He's fortunate to be hitting .257 with the help of a .371 BABIP. 

That rate seems destined to drop, but maybe not to a debilitating level. Despite his contact woes and disappointing five homers, he has notched a 29.2 line-drive percentage and 36.5 hard-hit average. 

The ball continues to jump off his bat, further supported by his exit velocity. According to BaseballSavant.com, his rate mimics marks set by Bryce Harper and Miguel Cabrera, placing him in the top 10.

A previously slumping name on that list, Carlos Gonzalez has finally parlayed those sharp swings into a meteoric hot streak. Soler's worth a low-risk, high-reward gamble in hopes of a strong season finale. 

Sell High: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Since his sensational 2011 arrival, everyone has fancied Eric Hosmer as a superstar in waiting. Through ups and downs, the 25-year-old has morphed into a high-quality first baseman with limiting power.

Hosmer has generated plenty of value despite an assuming 11 homers and four steals. In 13 games since the All-Star break, he's hitting .446 (25-for-56) with three dingers, upping his season slash line to .315/.372/.481.

This is another case of not trusting a high average inflated by a recent hot streak. He is a career .281 hitter whose current 32.3 hard-hit percentage falls in line with a 33.2 career clip. Average varies too much to trust from a non-superstar.

Of course, this is where someone will point out that he's only 25. This is him finally morphing into an elite contributor with plus power. Possible, but it's also likely he falls back to earth after an incredible two weeks.

Anyone who invested a mid-round pick will gladly take a .290-.300 hitter with 15-20 long balls and good counting numbers. Right now, Hosmer can fetch even more on the trading block. He's closer to 2014 Freddie Freeman than 2013 Freeman.

Buy Low: Yordano Ventura, SP, Kansas City Royals

Colin E. Braley/Associated Press

Let's take a side-by-side look at Yordano Ventura's past two seasons in terms of key factors he controls. While his strikeouts have slightly decreased, he made up for it with fewer free passes and more ground balls, leading to better individualized scores in fielding independent pitching (FIP) and skill interactive ERA (SIERA). 

2014: 7.82 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 3.60 FIP, 3.87 SIERA, 47.6 ground-ball percentage

2015: 7.56 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.57 FIP, 3.71 SIERA, 51.0 ground-ball percentage

Based on these lines alone, an onlooker would commend the 24-year-old's maturation as more than merely a hard-throwing hurler. Yet his ERA has expanded from 3.20 to 4.86.

Neither mark accurately portrays Ventura as well as his career 3.71 ERA and 3.69 FIP. Despite his blazing velocity, he has never materialized into a high-strikeout arm, amounting to more hype than merit. 

Yet he's still young, still throws gas and is coming off a stellar showing against the Houston Astros. It also makes more sense for him to outperform his peripherals than the other way around behind an exceptional Kansas City Royals defense.

In this case, buying low could merely mean a free-agent add for some owners. Others in deeper or keeper leagues should see if they can get a solid arm for a discount.

Sell High: Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

The ace weirdly given a Batman gimmick has seemingly taken the moniker to heart. After a dazzling debut and an all-time great sequel, Matt Harvey's third installment feels like a letdown by comparison.

At least the ace has an excuse. Nobody can complain about his 3.16 ERA and 1.09 WHIP coming off Tommy John surgery, but this isn't the same pitcher who posted a 2.27 ERA and 23.2 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage in 2013.

His velocity remains intact through 19 starts, but his K/9 has dipped to 8.33. Along with an alarming 3.70 FIP, he has recently shown signs of fatigue.

Over his last eight starts, Harvey has registered 36 strikeouts through 51.2 innings. He has also issued 14 walks in four July starts, tagged for a 5.15 FIP this month.

Still viewed as a premier hurler, his recent struggles make him a borderline top-25 fantasy starter over the final two months. 

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. 

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