Making a Case to Trade or Stay for Each Team That Could Get 2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick

With two weeks left in the 2025 NFL season, the playoff race is heating up. So is the battle for the top pick in the 2026 draft, though only a handful of teams still have a legitimate shot at "earning" the draft's No. 1 selection.

While we have an idea of which teams could be on the clock by early January, we have very little idea of what they might do with the top selection.

Most teams choose to stay put and take the best player in the draft, though some will flip the selection for a hefty package of picks and/or players—as the Chicago Bears did in 2023.

What will happen at No. 1 in 2026? A lot will hinge on which team winds up with it. We'll make the case to stay or trade for each top-pick contender based on roster makeup, franchise trajectory, any other relevant team-specific factors, and the top prospect on the B/R Scouting Department's 2026 big board.

New York Giants

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Giants QB Jaxson Dart

Current Draft Slot: No. 1

Chance to Earn No. 1 Pick: 33%

Trade or Stay: Trade

The New York Giants would have the No. 1 overall pick if the season ended today. According to The Athletic's simulation model, the Giants have a 33-percent chance to control the No. 1 pick by season's end.

For New York, that path to No. 1 is fairly straightforward. If the Giants lose to the Las Vegas Raiders this week and to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18, they'll stay in the top spot.

What will the Giants do if they get the top pick? Most likely, they'll trade it to a quarterback-needy team for a bevy of picks. Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the top-ranked QB on the B/R board, and he's an intriguing enough prospect to command a package similar to what Chicago got in 2023.

The Bears got a 2024 first-round pick, a 2025 second-round pick and wide receiver D.J. Moore to move down from No. 1 to No. 9.

Mendoza—and fellow top-QB prospect Dante Moore, for that matter—doesn't appear to be the type of "sure thing" that would force the Giants to move on from first-round rookie Jaxson Dart, though there are some caveats.

New York will already be looking for a new head coach after firing Brian Daboll in-season. The Giants haven't fired general manager Joe Schoen, but if they decide to dump him and start over entirely, Dart's future could be a bit murkier.

The Mississippi product has flashed a high ceiling, but he's had his rookie struggles, too. He's also shown a concerning tendency to take on contact. A brand new Giants front office could want "its guy," which might mean staying put and taking Mendoza or Moore at No. 1.

Las Vegas Raiders

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Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza

Current Draft Slot: No. 2

Chance to Earn No. 1 Pick: 34%

Trade or Stay: Stay

This week's game between the Giants and Raiders is likely to determine which team winds up with the No. 1 pick in 2026. Las Vegas has a 34-percent chance to claim the top selection, and that will jump to a 62-percent chance if New York wins in Week 17.

A loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18 would then secure the top pick.

Las Vegas may undergo its own coaching change in the coming weeks. While Pete Carroll was just hired this past offseason, he hasn't delivered the desired results, and his future is "very much in doubt," according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero.

The future of GM John Spytek in Las Vegas is probably more secure. However, the Raiders should be inclined to stay put and draft the quarterback of their choice regardless of how the front office looks by the spring.

Geno Smith is under contract through 2027, but the 35-year-old is not a long-term answer for the rebuilding Raiders. A prospect like Mendoza might be.

"Mendoza dissects defenses quickly and efficiently from the pocket," Dame Parson of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "The speed of his mental process, paired with his quick decision-making, will fit into most NFL offensive concepts/structures."

The Raiders should be in the business of throwing darts at the QB position until they hit. The No. 1 pick would give them one big dart to throw.

Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Browns QB Shedeur Sanders

Current Draft Slot: No. 3

Chance to Earn No. 1 Pick: 22%

Trade or Stay: It Depends

The Cleveland Browns need help to secure the No. 1 overall pick. Losing both of their remaining games—against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals—won't be enough. However, there is a simple path to Cleveland getting the top pick for the first time since 2018.

If the Giants beat the Raiders this week, and Las Vegas beats a Chiefs team that has already packed it in for the year, the Browns will pick first. What would they do with the top selection? That might depend entirely on what happens over the final two weeks.

Cleveland's situation is complicated. The Browns have been terrible over the past two seasons, but Kevin Stefanski is also a two-time Coach of the Year, who hasn't enjoyed quarterback stability in either of his past two campaigns. The Browns also have a rookie quarterback in Shedeur Sanders, who has flashed some exciting upside while also making plenty of rookie mistakes.

If the Browns decide not to run it back with Stefanski—and/or general manager Andrew Berry, for that matter—incoming decision-makers will have their thoughts about the Sanders-versus-a-rookie debate. That debate may also become one-sided if Sanders flops over the final two weeks while pushing Cleveland into the No. 1 spot.

If Cleveland is out on Sanders, grabbing Mendoza or Moore at No. 1 will be the common-sense choice.

Right now, though, moving forward with Sanders appears to very much be on the table.

"I just have a feeling that [the Browns are] going to analyze the whole thing and decide they want to move forward with [Sanders]," Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com told 92.3 The Fan (h/t Lior Lampert of Dawg Pound Daily).

If the Browns decide there isn't much of a gap between Mendoza/Moore and Sanders, trading down a few spots and taking a player to help Sanders—like Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate—would make a ton of sense.

Everything will depend on how Sanders performs in his final starts of 2025 and how the front office looks after the season. Regardless, there will be a discussion.

Sanders, for the record, received an 8.0 prospect grade from Parson last year, while Mendoza and Moore have received grades of 8.5 and 8.3, respectively.

New York Jets

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Oregon QB Danre Moore

Current Draft Slot: No. 4

Chance to Earn No. 1 Pick: 12%

Trade or Stay: Stay

The New York Jets have a tougher path to the No. 1 pick, though it's not an overly convoluted one.

It starts with losing over the next two weeks to the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. A Giants win in Week 16, a Raiders win in Week 17, and two wins each by the Titans and Browns would essentially lock things up for New York.

Unlikely? Sure, but things are a lot more straightforward for the Jets than the other two teams that mathematically still have a chance. And the reward for New York would be obvious.

The Jets tried drafting a quarterback in the first round in both 2018 and 2021, taking Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson, respectively. However, New York didn't have its choice of quarterback in either of those drafts. It would have its pick of 2026 QBs in this scenario. The choice would likely be between Mendoza and Moore, who has franchise-QB potential of his own.

"Moore is a natural thrower of the football, possessing touch, accuracy, and precise ball placement. All things that translate and excel in the NFL on Sundays," Parson wrote.

New York failed to surround Darnold and Wilson with a quality supporting cast, and while the current group isn't great, the Jets could improve their roster in a hurry. They have two first-round picks and two second-round selections in the 2026 draft thanks to the deadline trades of Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. They also have $104 million in projected 2026 cap space.

The Justin Fields experiment was a bust, and Tyrod Taylor isn't a long-term candidate. If the Jets wind up with the top pick, they'll be taking a quarterback.

Tennessee Titans

AP Photo/Stew Milne

Titans QB Cam Ward

Current Draft Slot: No. 5

Chance to Earn No. 1 Pick: Less than 1%

Trade or Stay: Trade

Technically, the Tennessee Titans have a chance to land the No. 1 overall pick for the second straight season. However, their path is incredibly indirect and would require multiple specific outcomes that dramatically impact tiebreakers.

Tennessee has one more win than the Giants and Raiders and ranks lower in the strength-of-schedule (.573) tiebreaker than the first four teams on our list.

Realistically, the Titans wouldn't be staying at No. 1 even if they got the pick. They'll be looking for a new head coach after firing Brian Callahan early in the year, but general manager Mike Borgonzi—who was just hired in January—will probably be picking him.

Borgonzi also settled on Ward early in the 2025 predraft process and never wavered. The chances of him taking a quarterback first overall in back-to-back drafts would be extremely slim—if for no other reason than it would mean admitting that Ward wasn't the right choice.

Now, Tennessee could stay at No. 1 and land another top prospect, like Ohio State safety Caleb Downs or Miami edge-rusher Rueben Bain Jr. However, trading back a few spots and landing one of those elite prospects would provide even more value, and the opportunity would be there.

In the unlikely event that the Titans jump the Raiders, Browns, and Jets, one of those teams would almost certainly be willing to move up to get a quarterback that Tennessee doesn't need.

Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

Current Draft Slot: No. 6

Chance to Earn No. 1 Pick: Less Than 1%

Trade or Stay: Stay

The Arizona Cardinals opened the 2025 season at 2-0. With two weeks left, they still have a shot at earning the first overall pick in 2026. That chance simply isn't very good.

The Cardinals are in a similar position to that of the Titans, only they're even further down the draft order due to their strength of schedule (.567). In all likelihood, Arizona won't claim the top selection.

If the Cardinals could stumble into the top pick, though, it could solve a ton of problems.

It continues to look like Arizona is ready to move on from quarterback Kyler Murray. The 2019 first overall pick showed a high ceiling early in his career but has been decidedly average when healthy in recent years. He's also won nothing of note for a franchise that hasn't won a playoff game since Carson Palmer was at quarterback.

Getting a prospect like Mendoza or Moore would help Arizona move on from Murray, either through his release or a bargain-bin trade—which are reportedly the Cardinals' only real options.

"Team executives around the league are skeptical Murray would fetch much, if anything, in an offseason trade," The Athletic's Jeff Howe wrote. "Maybe the dynamic changes due to a lack of other options."

A shot at a new QB might also help justify bringing back coach Jonathan Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort, as Rapoport and Pelissero recently noted:

"With potentially a new QB, can the Cardinals make a leap back toward contention next season in a division in which the other three teams are all currently competing for the NFC's No. 1 seed? If [franchise owner Michael] Bidwill decides the answer is yes, the sense is he'll stay the course"

*Draft order information from Tankathon. Cap and contract information from Spotrac.