Ranking All 30 MLB Teams on 1st-Round Draft Success Since 2010
The Major League Baseball first-year player draft has always been much more of a crapshoot than the NBA and NFL. Even the cream of the crop selections in MLB typically need several years in the minors before making it to the pros, and it's not terribly uncommon for top 10 picks to never make it to the majors.
But which baseball teams have done the best job of identifying future stardom with their first-round picks over the past 15 years?
What is considered: All signed first-round picks made from 2010-24, including supplementary and compensatory picks. That means nearly 50 picks in 2010, close to 60 in each of 2011 and 2012 and a total of more than 600.
What isn't considered: Whether the player's production in the majors occurred with the team that drafted him. That means Dansby Swanson counts as a great pick for the Arizona Diamondbacks, even though he was traded to Atlanta six months after the draft.
Average Baseball-Reference WAR of signed picks is the primary sorting metric for this ranking, but average draft pick number was also a key data point. After all, the chances of a No. 1 pick panning out are a whole heck of a lot greater than the chances of a No. 30 pick becoming an All-Star.
30. San Francisco Giants
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 1.11
Crown Jewel: C Patrick Bailey, No. 13, 2020
Bailey's bat hasn't been anything worth writing home about, with 21 home runs and a .230 batting average 353 games into his big-league career. But his worth on defense is second to none, with a Fielding Run Value since the beginning of 2023 that is laughably ahead of the field.
Biggest Bust: C Joey Bart, No. 2, 2018
Bart did end up having a solid season with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2024, but only after disappointing for a while with the Giants. It bears mentioning that they were forced to rush him to the majors in 2020, between the minor league season getting cancelled and Buster Posey opting out of playing that year. But he never much improved upon that initial 33-game run, posting a .528 OPS in his fourth and final season with the Giants.
Overall Synopsis
Though the Giants had a pretty legendary run of first-round picks from 2006-09 in Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey and Zack Wheeler, it has been one forgettable choice after the next over the past 15 years—which is at least partially the reason they've posted a winning record just once in the past nine seasons.
29. Texas Rangers
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 1.28
Crown Jewel: OF Wyatt Langford, No. 4, 2023
For the time being, Joey Gallo (No. 39 pick in 2012) has been worth more career WAR (15.6) than Langford (9.5). But, you know, enjoy that title for maybe one more year, because Langford has been phenomenal and fast, easily the second-best player to come out of a 2023 draft where Paul Skenes went No. 1 overall.
Biggest Bust: OF Lewis Brinson, No. 29, 2012
Brinson blossomed into a consensus top 20 prospect by 2016, and the Rangers traded him to Milwaukee that summer for two players who helped them secure the AL's No. 1 seed. The Brewers later sent Brinson to Miami as the main attraction on that end of that blockbuster trade for Christian Yelich. So, he at least served his purpose as a trade chip—en route to posting a career WAR of negative-3.8.
Overall Synopsis
The huge looming question here is if and when 2021 No. 2 pick Jack Leiter and 2022 No. 3 pick Kumar Rocker are going to pan out, as they are presently two of the Rangers' five first-round picks since 2010 who have amounted to a negative-1.0 WAR or worse. Because if they don't start to look the part in 2026, Texas might need to start considering steering headlong into a rebuild.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 1.18
Crown Jewel: LHP Blake Snell, No. 52, 2011
Easy choice here, as the two-time Cy Young winner has been worth nearly three times as much WAR as the next-closest Rays first-round pick of the past 15 years. Snell was great for Tampa Bay for five years, including anchoring their run to the World Series in 2020.
Biggest Bust: LHP/DH Brendan McKay, No. 4, 2017
From 1999-2008, the Rays picked in the top eight every single year, ending up with gems like Evan Longoria and David Price. But they've only drafted in the top 12 once since then, taking what they hoped was going to be the two-way star that Shohei Ohtani has become. Unfortunately, the injury gods had other plans for McKay, who logged 49 innings in the majors in 2019 before pitching a grand total of 45 innings in the minors in the six years since.
Overall Synopsis
The Snell pick was great. Shane McClanahan, Josh Lowe and Ryne Stanek have all provided at least some value, too. But thanks to all of the supplementary, compensatory and competitive-balance picks, Tampa Bay has made seven more first-round picks (35 in total) dating back to 2010 than the next-closest team. Those are the only four they drafted and signed who have been worth more than 0.5 WAR.
27. Seattle Mariners
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.61
Crown Jewel: RHP Logan Gilbert, No. 14, 2018
Seattle made quite a few regrettable first-round picks in the 2007-17 timeframe, but going with Gilbert in 2018 and George Kirby in 2019 was a major one-two punch in putting an end to that two-decade drought without a postseason appearance. Gilbert has given the M's a sub-3.75 ERA in each of the past four seasons, earning some Cy Young votes in 2024.
Biggest Bust: LHP Danny Hultzen, No. 2, 2011
Hultzen seemed destined for greatness. He had a 1.37 ERA in 118 innings pitched in his final season at UVA in 2011, a 1.19 ERA in 13 starts at Double-A in 2012 and a 2.05 ERA in six starts at Triple-A in 2013. But then shoulder injuries destroyed his career before it ever truly had a chance to begin. He logged just 36.1 innings across all levels from that point forward, getting a brief taste of the majors with the Cubs in 2019.
Overall Synopsis
Though Seattle's average WAR per pick is nowhere near as bad as those of San Francisco or Tampa Bay, there's a real case to be made that the Mariners should land at No. 30 on this list. Their average pick number from 2011-21 was 10.3, but they ended up with way more duds than guys who amounted to anything. Even Mike Zunino being worth 9.0 WAR as the No. 3 pick in 2012 looks like a bad pick, surrounded by Byron Buxton at No. 2 and Kevin Gausman at No. 4.
26. Kansas City Royals
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.31
Crown Jewel: SS Bobby Witt Jr., No. 2, 2019
The Royals have also had a handful of first-round pitchers pan out pretty nicely in Sean Manaea (No. 34 in 2013), Kris Bubic (No. 40 in 2018) and Brady Singer (No. 18 in 2018). But there's really no contest here, as Witt has become one of the 10 best players in all of baseball, finishing top four in the AL MVP vote in each of the past two seasons, also winning Gold Glove and Silver Slugger both years.
Biggest Bust: OF Bubba Starling, No. 5, 2011
It took eight years for Starling to finally make it to the majors, and let's just say he wasn't worth the wait, posting a .544 OPS in 91 career games played. He was the No. 5 overall pick in 2011, but he was the first position player selected. The next three were Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor and Javier Báez, and the next two outfielders chosen after Starling were George Springer and Brandon Nimmo. And at $7.5M, Starling got the second-largest signing bonus of that draft class, behind only Gerrit Cole at $8M. Oops.
Overall Synopsis
Starling was the most painful of the bunch, but the Royals routinely whiffed miserably on top picks in the early 2010s with Christian Colón (No. 4 in 2010), Kyle Zimmer (No. 5 in 2012) and Hunter Dozier (No. 8 in 2013). That quartet amounted to a combined WAR of minus-3.4 and was a huge factor in the Royals going straight from back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014-15 to the worst record in baseball from 2016-23.
25. Detroit Tigers
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.04
Crown Jewel: OF Riley Greene, No. 5, 2019
Despite losing 2020 to COVID and a considerable chunk of both 2022 and 2023 to injury, Greene has blossomed into one of the game's brighter young talents, named an All-Star in each of the past two seasons with a combined total of 60 home runs. He does strike out a ton, but that hasn't prevented him from posting an .816 OPS over the past two years.
Biggest Bust: 1B Spencer Torkelson, No. 1, 2020
Tork did have a bounce-back/breakthrough year in 2025, but only after posting a cumulative negative WAR through his first three seasons and spending most of last winter on the speculative trade block. While Detroit has had plenty of other first-round picks who haven't amounted to anything, going No. 1 overall means exponentially more scrutiny. And thus far, Torkelson has been more Mickey Moniak than Bryce Harper.
Overall Synopsis
The Tigers are the only team that didn't have at least one draft pick higher than 20th from 2010-15, which is where more than three-quarters of the league-wide WAR in this exercise came from. As such, maybe a bit of a harsh ranking here. However, aside from Greene, they haven't exactly crushed it with their recent top-10 picks. Fingers crossed that 2023 No. 3 overall pick Max Clark changes that narrative soon.
24. Atlanta Braves
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.35
Crown Jewel: 3B Austin Riley, No. 41, 2015
Riley's first two seasons in the big leagues were pretty underwhelming, but he was one of the five most valuable players in all of MLB from 2021-23, racking up 108 home runs while batting .286. The past two years haven't been nearly as productive, but he has also battled injuries in each.
Biggest Bust: LHP Ian Anderson, No. 3, 2016
Anderson's first two seasons in the big leagues were pretty impressive, earning NL Rookie of the Year votes in each of 2020 and 2021, making a combined 30 starts with a 3.25 ERA. He even pitched five no-hit innings in Game 3 of the 2021 World Series, and made eight starts in the postseason with a 1.26 ERA. But it was short-lived, struggling through 2022 before missing all of 2023 and 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Overall Synopsis
While Riley was a heck of a snag at No. 41 overall, Atlanta's recent first-round history is otherwise a boulevard of broken pitchers who either weren't good enough or couldn't stay healthy long enough to make a prolonged impact—Anderson, Mike Soroka and Kyle Wright, in particular. The Braves have only drafted in the top 20 five times dating back to 2010, though, and failed to sign one of those picks (Carter Stewart in 2018).
23. Milwaukee Brewers
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.41
Crown Jewel: 2B Brice Turang, No. 21, 2018
When Turang first made it to the majors in 2023, Milwaukee had to bury his .585 OPS in the bottom third of the order on a nightly basis. But he was up to a .794 mark this past season, even batting cleanup on multiple occasions during the postseason. Combine that with his 100 stolen bases and his Platinum Glove-winning defense and this 26-year-old has become quite the total package.
Biggest Bust: OF Corey Ray, No. 5, 2016
In the past two decades, Milwaukee has drafted in the top 10 just three times: One was Matt LaPorta at No. 7 in 2007, who amounted to nothing but was famously supposed to be the key piece of the CC Sabathia trade. Another was Keston Hiura at No. 9 in 2017, who at least had a couple decent seasons. But then there's Corey Ray, who appeared in one MLB game in 2021 and is already three seasons into his coaching career.
Overall Synopsis
Along with Ray's one-game career, Milwaukee had six first-round picks in the 2012-17 timeframe who never made it to the big leagues at all. At least they hit on Brandon Woodruff in the 11th round in 2014 and Corbin Burnes in the 4th round in 2016, though those were irrelevant for this ranking.
22. Boston Red Sox
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.41
Crown Jewel: OF Jackie Bradley Jr., No. 40, 2011
JBJ was an excellent center fielder who probably should have more than one Gold Glove on his mantle. And when he was able to combine that defense with 26 home runs and a .267 batting average as a 26-year-old in 2016, it felt like a superstar had been born. It wasn't meant to last, but Bradley gave Boston 101 home runs, 62 stolen bases and plenty of web gems over his nine seasons there.
Biggest Bust: LHP Trey Ball, No. 7, 2013
Ball simply didn't pan out. He was a great high school pitcher in Indiana, but across six minor league seasons he had a 5.02 ERA and a 1.5 K/BB ratio. He never even made it to Triple-A, let alone the majors. What stings is that aside from taking Marcelo Mayer at No. 4 overall in 2021, No. 7 is the highest the Red Sox have drafted since the 1960s.
Overall Synopsis
In addition to Bradley, Andrew Benintendi (No. 7 pick in 2015) has had a solid career as an outfielder. Not much here beyond that, but that'll happen when your average first-round draft pick from 2010-19 was 26.1.
21. Los Angeles Angels
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.78
Crown Jewel: SS Zach Neto, No. 13, 2022
In recent years, the Angels have been targeting first-round picks who could make a near-immediate impact. Neto was playing in the majors less than nine months after getting drafted. And by his second season, he was playing at an All-Star caliber level, racking up 49 home runs, 56 RBI and 10.2 WAR over the past two seasons.
Biggest Bust: OF Jo Adell, No. 10, 2017
Adell did explode for 37 home runs in 2025 at the age of 26, posting an OPS+ north of 90 for the first time in his six-year career. There's still a chance he'll shed the bust label. But even in his breakthrough year, he had a sub-.300 on-base percentage yet again and has a cumulative WAR of 0.6 to date. Tough pill to swallow from what was one of the top prospects in all of baseball heading into 2020.
Overall Synopsis
It should be noted that taking Mike Trout at No. 25 overall in 2009 fell just outside the scope of our parameters. The Angels also took Randal Grichuk, Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs in the first round that year and would have probably landed in the top 10 if '09 was factored in. But it wasn't. And despite almost always picking in the top 18 over the past 15 years, there has been very little worth mentioning beyond Neto.
20. Minnesota Twins
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.75
Crown Jewel: OF Byron Buxton, No. 2, 2012
A proud Twin for life, Buxton has long been one of MLB's brightest "when he's healthy" stars. Since the beginning of 2019, he has averaged 38 home runs and nearly 20 stolen bases per 162 games played, and has a slugging percentage (.534) that ranks fifth-best in the majors. He has also appeared in nine more games than Mike Trout during that time, but it's fun when he's available.
Biggest Bust: SS Nick Gordon, No. 5, 2014
Gordon had one respectable season in 2022, batting .272 as a utilityman who appeared in 136 games. But it took him seven years to make it to the big leagues, and that lone respectable run was bookended by partial seasons that were fully disappointing. After getting traded by the Twins and released by both the Marlins and Royals, he signed with a team in the Mexican League earlier this month.
Overall Synopsis
Between Buxton at No. 2 and José Berríos at No. 32, the Twins sure did knock it out of the park in 2012. Aside from that, though, not much worth writing home about, other than perpetually injured 2017 No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis and the No. 35 pick from that same draft, Brent Rooker, who didn't start amounting to anything until two years after Minnesota traded him away.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.64
Crown Jewel: RHP Marcus Stroman, No. 22, 2012
Between Noah Syndergaard (No. 38 in 2010), Joe Musgrove (No. 46 in 2011) and Stroman, the Blue Jays snagged three darn good arms late in the first round of three consecutive drafts. At least they held onto Stroman, though, trading away the other two long before they made it to the big leagues, but getting six seasons and a 3.76 ERA from the Stro Show. He also made five postseason starts for them between 2015 and 2016.
Biggest Bust: C Max Pentecost, No. 11, 2014
This one was a double whammy for the Blue Jays. They took Phil Bickford at No. 10 overall in 2013, but failed to sign him. Their compensation for that was this No. 11 spot in 2014, with which they took a catcher who retired less than five years later, never making it to the big leagues. Pentecost missed all of 2015 to shoulder surgery and appeared in fewer than 90 games in each of 2016, 2017 and 2018 before giving up the ghost and retiring in the spring of 2019.
Overall Synopsis
Toronto rarely drafts in the top 10, but has managed to unearth a few gems. All of them pitchers, though, for whatever that's worth. They've taken 10 position players in the first round over the past 15 years, none of whom has amounted to a positive WAR to date. When you occasionally draft a Stroman, Musgrove or Trey Yesavage, though, who needs first-round hitters?
18. Cincinnati Reds
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 3.16
Crown Jewel: RHP Hunter Greene, No. 2, 2017
When Greene first arrived in the majors in 2022, he was a flamethrower who couldn't keep the ball in the yard. Over the past two years, though, he has blossomed into one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball, with a 2.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. Those are Zack Wheeler, Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes types of numbers, and the Reds are thrilled to have another four years of team control over this ace.
Biggest Bust: 3B Nick Senzel, No. 2, 2016
Wildly different results from Cincinnati's back-to-back years picking at No. 2, right? In his five seasons with the Reds, Senzel was perpetually banged up, never amounting to better than 0.1 WAR and posting an OPS+ of 76. After they non-tendered him, he hit .195 between the Nationals and White Sox in 2024, never made it back to the bigs in 2025.
Overall Synopsis
Though not exactly replete with first-ballot Hall of Famers, the Reds have made quite a few "not too shabby" first-round selections. In addition to Greene, there's Yasmani Grandal, Michael Lorenzen, Jesse Winker, Nick Lodolo, Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India, not to mention the likes of Matt McLain, Sal Stewart, Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, any of whom could be key factors in 2026.
17. Colorado Rockies
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 3.22
Crown Jewel: SS Trevor Story, No. 45, 2011
The Rockies hopelessly botched Trevor Story's exit in 2021 and have been floundering ever since, but he was sensational for his six seasons on that roster, playing a mammoth role in Colorado falling just a game-163 tiebreaker away from winning the NL West in 2018. Even though the truncated 2020 campaign was one of those seasons, he was worth 27.0 WAR before hitting free agency.
Biggest Bust: RHP Riley Pint, No. 4, 2016
Control was always an issue for Pint, and that only got worse when they transitioned him from a starter to a reliever after a brutal first few years of his minor league career. He briefly retired in 2021, but came back in 2022 and had a cup of coffee in the majors in 2023 and 2024. He walked eight batters and allowed two home runs in 3.2 innings of work and was released that winter.
Overall Synopsis
The Rockies had a solid run of picks in the first half of the 2010s, taking Story, Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland. All four played major roles in the aforementioned 2018 campaign. The problem is they've gotten nothing out of their first-round picks for more than a decade, contributing to the feeling that they'll never be good again.
16. Arizona Diamondbacks
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 3.52
Crown Jewel: SS Dansby Swanson, No. 1, 2015
Sure, they traded him to Atlanta six months later in what turned out to be a horrifically lopsided swap, but what a pick, right? A lot of No. 1 overall picks in the 2013-21 timeframe ended up being kind of terrible, but Swanson has been a major exception to the rule with his 164 home runs, 106 stolen bases and elite defense at shortstop.
Biggest Bust: 1B Pavin Smith, No. 7, 2017
While Smith hasn't been terrible, surely the Diamondbacks were hoping that this No. 7 pick would be more than just an occasional first baseman and the left-handed portion of a DH platoon by his sixth season in the big leagues. Alas, he will enter 2026 with two years of team control remaining, once again with "maybe he'll contribute a bit" expectations.
Overall Synopsis
Were Swanson the only pick worth praising, we would've knocked the Snakes down quite a few pegs. But they also took Trevor Bauer in 2011 (before also trading him away far too quickly) and Corbin Carroll in 2019. Let's check back in a few years, though, to see if 2021 No. 6 Jordan Lawlar or 2022 No. 2 Druw Jones ever amount to anything. They both are thus far making quite a run at Smith's title of Biggest Bust.
15. St. Louis Cardinals
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 3.35
Crown Jewel: 2B Kolten Wong, No. 22, 2011
Wong was never an All-Star, but he was consistently solid, both as a .256 career hitter and as a two-time Gold Glove winner. He played in 852 games over eight seasons with the Cardinals, peaking in 2019 with a 5.4 WAR and a couple of down-ballot votes for NL MVP.
Biggest Bust: 3B/OF Jordan Walker, No. 21, 2020
This pick initially looked like highway robbery for the Cardinals, as Walker flourished in the minors in 2021 and 2022 en route to becoming a consensus top-five prospect heading into 2023. But the past three seasons have been disastrous, especially 2025, in which Baseball Reference graded him as the least valuable position player at a minus-1.7 WAR. Fingers crossed for 2026? At least he's inexpensive?
Overall Synopsis
From 2009-23, the Cardinals never once drafted higher than 18th. Yet, they were able to find Wong, Michael Wacha, Jack Flaherty and half a dozen others who have been worth at least 3.0 WAR in the majors. Even though there haven't been any superstars in the mix, you could argue they belong in the top 10 for their consistent ability to find some value.
14. Miami Marlins
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 4.59
Crown Jewel: OF Christian Yelich, No. 23, 2010
The Marlins traded Yelich to Milwaukee right before he really peaked—and, worse, got what turned out to be a whole bunch of nothing for him—but he hit better than .280 in each of his five seasons with Miami, winning a Gold Glove in 2014 and a Silver Slugger in 2016.
Biggest Bust: RHP Tyler Kolek, No. 2, 2014
Never mind the majors, Kolek never even made it to Double-A. He had an electric fastball when the Marlins drafted him, but he also had Tommy John surgery in April 2016 and never recovered, logging a combined total of 33 innings from 2017-19 before never getting a chance to pitch in 2020 due to COVID.
Overall Synopsis
Yelich takes the cake, but José Fernández (2011), Andrew Heaney (2012), Josh Naylor (2015), Braxton Garrett (2016) and Trevor Rogers (2017) was a pretty good run on players who have been worth at least 5.0 WAR. Granted, the Marlins have made 15 top-16 picks in the past 15 years, so it's actually a little surprising they haven't had even more success than this.
13. Cleveland Guardians
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 4.03
Crown Jewel: SS Francisco Lindor, No. 8, 2011
As good as Lindor has been at shortstop for Steve Cohen and the Mets over the past five seasons, he was even better with Cleveland, batting .285 with a .833 OPS in those six years. In each year from 2016-19, he was an All-Star, a recipient of AL MVP votes and either a Gold Glove or Silver Slugger winner.
Biggest Bust: OF Clint Frazier, No. 5, 2013
Credit to Cleveland, they made Frazier the main attraction of a four-prospect package sent to the Yankees for Andrew Miller ahead of the 2016 trade deadline, so they never felt the pain of his underwhelming career as a perpetual backup. In 280 games played across seven seasons, Frazier amounted to a negative-0.3 WAR.
Overall Synopsis
Among these more than 600 first-round picks, only Aaron Judge, Manny Machado and Chris Sale have been worth more WAR than Lindor's 55.7. But he represents more than 60 percent of Cleveland's total first-round WAR, with Drew Pomeranz (No. 5 in 2010) and Gavin Williams (No. 23 in 2021) the only other remotely noteworthy success stories. They need 2024 No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana to pan out.
12. Philadelphia Phillies
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 4.60
Crown Jewel: RHP Aaron Nola, No. 7, 2014
Prior to this past season, Nola had been Mr. Reliable for the Phillies for a decade, receiving votes for NL Cy Young in each of 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. (Perhaps he'll be back in a big way in 2026?) And he made his MLB debut almost exactly one year after being drafted—similar to Paul Skenes, albeit in significantly less "immediately dominant" fashion.
Biggest Bust: OF Mickey Moniak, No. 1, 2016
Better late than never, Moniak has at least been making an impact at the plate with 52 home runs and a .756 OPS over the past three seasons. But he's averaging nearly seven strikeouts per walk, and he was just about the biggest defensive liability in all of baseball in 2025, posting a negative WAR for the fourth time in five years. He has narrowly done enough to get out of the conversation for worst No. 1 overall pick ever.
Overall Synopsis
The Phillies repeatedly whiffed on first-round picks from 2004-12, which is a big part of why they cratered once that Rollins/Howard/Utley nucleus aged out. But J.P. Crawford was a solid pick in 2013, Nola was great in 2014 and going Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott back-to-back in 2018-19 has panned out reasonably well. The Moniak debacle keeps them out of the top 10, though.
11. Pittsburgh Pirates
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 4.75
Crown Jewel: RHP Gerrit Cole, No. 1, 2011
Take your pick, really, between Cole and Paul Skenes. We'll go with the No. 1 overall pick who has amassed 43.2 WAR over the course of 12 seasons instead of the one with a 13.5 WAR through two years, but you can't go wrong with either Cy Young winner. The shame with Cole is that he didn't really find his mojo until he got traded from Pittsburgh to Houston. Though, at least he got to pitch in a couple of playoff games for the Pirates. We'll see if that ever happens for Skenes.
Biggest Bust: C Henry Davis, No. 1, 2021
The two No. 1 overall pitchers have been awesome, but this No. 1 overall catcher is rapidly approaching "all-time biggest bust" territory with a .556 OPS three seasons into his career. Davis is still only 26, though. Maybe he can turn things around, as he has had a .936 OPS in five seasons of minor league play. But so far, so very bad.
Overall Synopsis
Beyond the two No. 1 picks, the Pirates also got Jameson Taillon and Ke'Bryan Hayes in the first round. That quartet has been worth a combined sum of nearly 90 wins above replacement. For as many top 10 picks as this team has had, though, there really ought to be at least one or two more names worth mentioning.
10. New York Yankees
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 4.45
Crown Jewel: OF Aaron Judge, No. 32, 2013
Have you heard of this guy? He's pretty decent. Judge just won his third AL MVP in the past four years, putting together a run of slugging prowess that is incomparable to anything more recent than Barry Bonds' onslaught through the early 2000s. The other two players the Yankees drafted in the first round in 2013 (Eric Jagielo and Ian Clarkin) never made it to the majors, but Judge sure made up for them.
Biggest Bust: OF Blake Rutherford, No. 18, 2016
The Yankees haven't drafted higher than 16th since 1993, so this No. 18 pick was a rare opportunity for them. But Rutherford never worked out, unless you want to count the .964 OPS that he posted in 74 minor league games in 2023, which was coupled with a .366 OPS in 16 games at the MLB level. (New York did trade him to the White Sox barely a year after drafting him, though.)
Overall Synopsis
Beyond Judge, New York's next-best first-round pick in recent history was Anthony Volpe, and a substantial percentage of the Yankees fan base would love nothing more than to see him traded away post haste. In other words, it's pretty well a one-man show here. But keeping in mind the Yankees never have their pick of the litter when it comes to the draft, it's remarkable that they made the best pick of them all.
9. New York Mets
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 5.10
Crown Jewel: OF Brandon Nimmo, No. 13, 2011
Apologies to the Mets faithful who are still emotionally recovering from the Nimmo-for-Marcus Semien swap last month, but this outfielder was one of their five best first-round picks of all-time. It's a shame injuries kept him from really breaking through until his seventh season in the majors, but he has always been productive when healthy.
Biggest Bust: SS Gavin Cecchini, No. 12, 2012
Cecchini was a light-hitting, poor-fielding shortstop who averaged roughly nine home runs and nine stolen bases per 162 games played in the minors. He briefly got a shot in the majors, but made just 89 plate appearances in his career. And the real pain is that they took Cecchini at 12 in a draft where Corey Seager went 18th.
Overall Synopsis
Nimmo gets top billing, but there have been a lot of solid picks here. Matt Harvey in 2010. Michael Fulmer 31 picks after Nimmo in 2011. Michael Conforto in 2014. David Peterson in 2017. Brett Baty in 2019. And while they surely now regret trading him away, Pete Crow-Armstrong at No. 19 in 2020 was one heck of a grab. No one bats 1.000 in the draft, but the Mets hit close to .500 for more than a decade—and then got an owner happy to spend like there's no tomorrow for top free agents. How have they not won a World Series in nearly four decades?
8. Los Angeles Dodgers
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 5.55
Crown Jewel: SS Corey Seager, No. 18, 2012
2012 was the last time the Dodgers missed the postseason, and drafting Seager that summer certainly wasn't a speed bump on their road to becoming a dynasty. He hit .337 as a September call-up in 2015 before unanimously winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2016. He was named World Series MVP in both 2020 and 2023, joining Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson and Reggie Jackson as the only multiple-time recipients of that honor.
Biggest Bust: RHP Chris Anderson, No. 18, 2013
Picking in the same slot where they took Seager the previous year, the Dodgers didn't quite identify the same type of star. Anderson never made it to the majors. He barely even made it to Triple-A, making three appearances with an 18.47 ERA late in 2015. He simply gave up too many hits, posting a WHIP north of 1.50 in every season except for his draft year.
Overall Synopsis
In the past three decades, the Dodgers have drafted higher than 15th just once, taking Clayton Kershaw at No. 7 overall in 2006. Yet, they've fared pretty well in the 20s and 30s, drafting Walker Buehler in 2015, both Will Smith and Gavin Lux in 2016 and Michael Busch in 2019.
7. Washington Nationals
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 6.51
Crown Jewel: OF Bryce Harper, No. 1, 2010
It bears mentioning that 2009 No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg didn't factor into this ranking. Washington would've easily cracked the top five if he did. But this second consecutive No. 1 pick sure turned out to be alright, too. Harper won NL Rookie of the Year in 2012, as well as NL MVP in both 2015 and 2021. He was an All-Star in six of his seven seasons with Washington before getting $330M from the Phillies.
Biggest Bust: IF Carter Kieboom, No. 28, 2016
Very few players taken at No. 28 overall have amounted to much of anything, so there certainly wasn't an expectation of greatness with this draft pick. But by the time he made it to the majors, Kieboom was supposed to be the next big thing, a unanimous top 25 prospect who had a .902 OPS in Triple-A in 2019 and Washington's solution to Anthony Rendon's impending departure in free agency. In chunks of five MLB seasons, though, Kieboom has hit .200 with a minus-2.0 WAR.
Overall Synopsis
From 2009-12, the Nationals went with Strasburg, Harper, Rendon and Lucas Giolito with their top pick. That's an incredible four-year run. But since then, the best they've done is Erick Fedde with a 4.8 WAR—and even he had a 5.41 ERA in his six seasons in Washington before spending a year in Korea and returning for one great season with the White Sox/Cardinals in 2024.
6. Chicago White Sox
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 6.85
Crown Jewel: LHP Chris Sale, No. 13, 2010
Chris Sale was drafted on June 7 and made his MLB debut less than two months later on August 6, making 21 relief appearances with a 1.93 ERA. It wasn't until year No. 3 that the White Sox moved him into the rotation, but that began a seven-year run of top-six finishes for the Cy Young award. And he did finally win one in 2024, still dominant into his mid-30s.
Biggest Bust: RHP Carson Fulmer, No. 8, 2015
For a bust of a draft pick, Fulmer has managed to hang around for quite some time, making multiple MLB appearances in nine of the past 10 seasons. However, he has career marks of 5.44 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and a negative-0.2 WAR, and he was even worse for his four seasons with the White Sox before they released him.
Overall Synopsis
Chicago has had four first-rounders pan out quite well in Sale, Tim Anderson, Carlos Rodón and Garrett Crochet, with early returns suggesting Colson Montgomery will be a fifth member of that club. Notably, though, only the Marlins and Mariners had a better average pick (16.4) than the White Sox (16.6) from 2010-24, and Chicago has had even more top-15 busts than successes. Still, they only narrowly missed the top five.
5. Baltimore Orioles
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 6.83
Crown Jewel: 3B/SS Manny Machado, No. 3, 2010
From 2007-12, the Orioles drafted top five six consecutive times. And nestled between forgettable picks like Brian Matusz, Dylan Bundy and Matt Hobgood, they made one of the best picks of them all in Machado. Prior to giving the Padres 194 home runs and an .825 OPS over the past seven seasons, he gave the Orioles 162 home runs, an .822 OPS and impeccable, Brooks Robinson-like glovework on the left side of the infield.
Biggest Bust: OF Heston Kjerstad, No. 2, 2020
By no means is the book closed on Kjerstad's career. However, he turns 27 in February, hit .175 between Triple-A and the majors in 2025 and is unlikely to make the O's Opening Day roster in the spring, let alone the starting lineup. He hit better than .300 in the minors in each year from 2022-24, but he simply has not been able to get it to translate to the big leagues
Overall Synopsis
In addition to Machado, the Kevin Gausman (No. 4 in 2012) and Adley Rutschman (No. 1 in 2019) picks have been solid. And though their No. 2 pick in 2020 may have been a bust, their No. 30 pick (Jordan Westburg) should be the staple at third base for years to come. Of course, Baltimore did draft in the top five 10 times from 2007-22, so you would hope they get a few of them right.
4. San Diego Padres
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 6.37
Crown Jewel: SS Trea Turner, No. 13, 2014
Six months after he was drafted, Turner was the 'player to be named later' who went from San Diego to Washington in a three-team swap centered around the Padres acquiring Wil Myers from Tampa. Washington pretty clearly won the deal, though, as Turner hit .300 and stole 192 bases during his seven seasons with the Nationals. Decent chance he'll be a Hall of Famer down the line.
Biggest Bust: SS Hudson Potts, No. 24, 2016
Notably, San Diego has very few candidates for this spot. And even in this same draft, the Padres also took Cal Quantrill and Eric Lauer in the first round. But Potts never came all that close to making it to the big leagues, only even playing in two games at the Triple-A level. (Unfortunately, the lack of a minor league season in 2020 really derailed his career, as that would have been his age-21 campaign.)
Overall Synopsis
What's comical about the Padres ranking this highly is how little they've actually gotten from their good picks. Ten of their 21 first-round picks made from 2010-20 amounted to at least 5.0 career WAR. But five of them (Turner, Max Fried, Zach Eflin, Joe Ross and Xavier Edwards) never played for the Padres, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore were traded during their rookie season and both Lauer and Quantrill were gone before year No. 3. At least they locked up Jackson Merrill for a long time, though.
3. Athletics
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 6.95
Crown Jewel: 3B Matt Chapman, No. 25, 2014
In addition to becoming one of the greatest defenders of this era, "Chappy" has hit at least 21 home runs in six seasons, peaking with 36 in 2019. He has somehow only been named an All-Star once, but he has five Gold Gloves and received votes for MVP in each of 2018, 2019 and 2024.
Biggest Bust: OF Austin Beck, No. 6, 2017
Twenty of the 21 players taken atop the 2017 draft have at least made their MLB debut. Beck is the exception to that rule, and will remain as such. He didn't play in 2020 because there was no MiLB and he missed 2023 to a torn ACL, but he also played in 85 or fewer games in each of 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2024 before retiring from baseball in August 2024.
Overall Synopsis
Of the more than 600 first-round picks in this data set, 18 have been worth at least 30 WAR. Of those 18 stars, seven were taken 15th overall or later. And of those seven, three were drafted by the A's: Chapman in 2014, Sonny Gray at No. 18 in 2011 and Matt Olson at No. 47 in 2012. That's a pretty impressive hit rate, not to mention the early returns they've gotten from Tyler Soderstrom (2020), Jacob Wilson (2023) and Nick Kurtz (2024).
2. Chicago Cubs
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 8.03
Crown Jewel: 3B Kris Bryant, No. 2, 2013
It's been a while since we lauded Bryant as a prize as opposed to a disaster on his current contract with the Rockies, but KB sure was something before he inked that $182M deal. He won NL Rookie of the Year in 2015 and NL MVP in 2016, one first-place vote for Daniel Murphy in the latter the only thing keeping both from being unanimous. He had an .886 OPS across those seven seasons in Chicago.
Biggest Bust: RHP Hayden Simpson, No. 16, 2010
The Cubs took a gamble on this strikeout machine from D-II Southern Arkansas. To say it didn't pan out would be quite the understatement. Most draft busts at least have a Wikipedia page, but not Simpson, who never made it past Single-A and was done pitching altogether by 2013 with a career ERA of 6.83.
Overall Synopsis
Instead of one superstar with 50+ WAR inflating the numbers for an otherwise unremarkable crop of picks, the Cubs have made five really solid selections in Bryant, Javier Báez, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner, each worth around 20 career WAR. They also had a pair of impressive rookies this past season in 2022 first-rounder Cade Horton and 2023 first-rounder Matt Shaw.
1. Houston Astros
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WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 9.66
Crown Jewel: OF George Springer, No. 11, 2011
Both Carlos Correa (45.7) and Alex Bregman (43.1) have been worth slightly more WAR in their careers than Springer (42.3), but those infielders also went No. 1 and No. 2 in their drafts while this outfielder was more of a steal, taken just outside the top 10. Springer was a three-time All-Star with Houston, as well as a postseason deity with 19 home runs and an .895 OPS in 63 games played from 2015-20.
Biggest Bust: RHP Mark Appel, No. 1, 2013
2014 No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken was also a gigantic bust, but he didn't sign with the Astros, which led to them getting Bregman the following year with a compensatory pick. Appel, on the other hand, was a true sunk cost of the highest order, temporarily retiring from baseball in 2017 after yet another rough year in the minors. He did make a comeback in 2021 and finally got a 10.1 inning cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2022. But he might as well have never made it.
Overall Synopsis
Houston's tank job from 2011-13 is why we now have a draft lottery and rules in place limiting how many consecutive years a team can draft in the lottery. But they made the most of it while they could, drafting first in each of 2012-14, as well as second and fifth in 2015, netting them Correa, Bregman and Kyle Tucker. No picks worth mentioning since 2015, but they crushed it in the first half of that decade.
