Kyle Schwarber, Edwin Díaz Contracts Reveal Divided Blueprint for NL Supremacy

The NL East has gone 1-for-2 in retaining core stars on the second day of MLB's winter meetings. And for the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets, it's a parting of ways for two wildly different paths that they hope have the same destination.

The Phillies are re-signing Kyle Schwarber, because of course they are. If his goal in flirting with the Pittsburgh Pirates was merely to add a few zeroes to his next Phillies deal, then it worked. He's back on a five-year, $150 million pact, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.

After the world found out Schwarber will resume slugging dingers for the Phillies, it was minutes later that it then found out Edwin Díaz will not be returning to Queens to save games for the New York Mets. As Will Sammon of The Athletic was first to report, he's headed to the Los Angeles Dodgers on a three-year, $69 million contract.

One thing the Phillies and Mets should have in common right now is disgust that Díaz joined the Dodgers. The two-time defending World Series champions are as much the big bad for them as they are for everyone else. Now they might as well be wearing a holiday sweater that says, "Now We Have Edwin Díaz, Ho-Ho-Ho."

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Yet before the Phillies and Mets can worry about the Dodgers, first they have to worry about that common destination of theirs.

The Phillies Have Doubled Down on a Broken Model

That the Phillies went all-out to re-sign Schwarber is not surprising. If you're the Phillies, it's hard to let a 56-homer slugger walk; and if you're Schwarber, it's hard to leave behind a home run paradise like Citizens Bank Park.

Still, though, whether it had to be this way is another question entirely.

After the Phillies were punted out of the NLDS by the Dodgers, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was talking about having "work to do" to get past Los Angeles. You could picture a pivot at that moment, perhaps one even centered on letting Schwarber go and aiming for, say, Kyle Tucker instead.

That would have been more expensive, but at least it would have been something different. By gravitating back toward Schwarber instead, the Phillies have spent $150 million to change nothing.

To this end, what matters now is what they do next. Ketel Marte is out there as a trade chip, and other names associated with the Phillies include Cody Bellinger and Tatsuya Imai.

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Until we know this other side of the story, the Schwarber signing looks less like an exclamation mark and more like a comma. If it somehow ends up being the last major move the Phillies make, that's how you'll know they're in trouble.

The Mets Learned Their Lesson About Running It Back

By contrast, it is surprising that the Mets let Díaz walk. They were supposedly still interested in him even after inking Devin Williams to a three-year, $51 million contract last week.

But also, not really. Re-signing the three-time All-Star closer would have meant straying into "run it back" territory, and Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has been blunt about not wanting to go there.

Between Williams and newcomer second baseman Marcus Semien, the Mets' roster makeover was already well underway before Díaz went west. Yet what's really interesting is how hard it is to predict where it'll go next, as everything the Mets are doing right now is downstream of an attitude adjustment.

Though Steve Cohen once cautioned against spending like "drunken sailors," he has largely spared no expense in keeping the Mets tethered to the top of MLB's payroll pyramid. On the plus side, that approach has scored Juan Soto and Díaz. On the down side, it has resulted in duds like Starling Marte and Sean Manaea.

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It now seems as if big names are out, and real needs and upside are in. The Mets needed Semien's glove more than they did Brandon Nimmo's bat. And while Díaz clearly had a better 2025 season than Williams, the latter is younger and has demonstrated just as much dominance dating back to 2020.

Even a trade for Tarik Skubal may not be a shiny enough object to distract the Mets from its questionable logic. As ESPN's Buster Olney posited, why pay a huge price to acquire Skubal now when they can wait a year and simply sign him for $400 million?

Granted, the Mets still have work to do in their own right. There's a Pete Alonso-shaped hole in their lineup, and they haven't yet addressed a rotation that badly needs a No. 1.

For now, trying something different while the Phillies recommit to a tired bit is at least an interesting approach for the Mets to take. It will only be the right one if it works, though.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.