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Predicting MLB Free-Agent Signings and Trades During 2025 Winter Meetings
While there has already been quite a bit of hot stove action in this Major League Baseball offseason, it's typically during the Winter Meetings that the biggest things either happen (Juan Soto to the Mets; Aaron Judge re-signing with the Yankees) or appear to happen (Shohei Ohtani's rumored flight to Toronto; "Arson Judge" to the Giants).
With the exception of Dylan Cease already signing for $210M with the Blue Jays, the consensus top 10 free agents in this year's class are all still available and liable to each sign what figure to be nine-figure contracts this week.
How many of them do sign during the Winter Meetings, though?
And, more importantly, where?
Don't forget about the potential for blockbuster trades, too.
Soto signing with the Mets last winter came almost exactly on the one-year anniversary of his getting traded from the Padres to the Yankees. And last December, we saw Garrett Crochet traded to Boston during the Winter Meetings, while the Kyle Tucker, Devin Williams and Cody Bellinger trades were all finalized within the subsequent few days.
Should be an eventful few days in Orlando, but let's try to predict the unpredictable before the fireworks show begins.
Kyle Schwarber Re-Signs with the Phillies
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After a fun few weeks of speculations that Kyle Schwarber might end up signing with extremely atypical spenders—the Reds, Marlins and Pirates, most notably—things have gotten pretty serious now that the Giants and the Mets have really entered the fray.
Boston has also been a rumored landing spot for Schwarber for a while now, but nothing new seems to have surfaced on that front since the Red Sox first became the initial legitimate threat to out-bid the Phillies for their star slugger.
Throw in the reports from last week that Schwarber and the Phillies are "not close to a deal," and surely there is a growing sense of urgency in the City of Brotherly Love.
They moved quickly to re-sign Aaron Nola two winters ago, and it's a little surprising they didn't do the same with Schwarber. With each passing day that the deal doesn't get announced, it becomes a little more realistic that he could end up somewhere else.
As such, that's enough playing around. After feeling out his market for a day at the Winter Meetings, the Phillies will give Schwarber either a four-year or five-year deal at around $30M per year and will spend the rest of the winter figuring out more budget-friendly solutions at catcher, outfield and bullpen.
Cardinals Unload Their Remaining Veterans
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Not exactly a bold prediction here.
Once the Cardinals traded Sonny Gray to the Red Sox, parting ways with both Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras became exponentially more of a "when?" situation than an "if?" proposition.
Both veterans have no-trade clauses, but The Athletic's Katie Woo—who has also left the Cardinals for the Dodgers beat—previously reported that both Arenado and Contreras are much more open to waiving those clauses than they were a year ago.
The big question is which teams are most interested in acquiring them.
For Contreras, certainly Boston would be interested, but the Yankees almost make too much sense, given their affinity in recent years for bringing in first basemen who are already into their mid-30s. The Bronx Bombers also have a stockpile of pitching prospects, which the Cardinals need badly enough to potentially retain a significant chunk of the $41.5M remaining on his deal.
Arenado is the trickier one, both because he is a shell of what he used to be at the plate and because Alex Bregman, Eugenio Suárez, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamato are all available as free agent third basemen. Doesn't help matters that Arenado is owed around $40M for the two remaining years on his deal.
The Angels could be an interested party, though, with reports from around Thanksgiving that they're looking to buy Anthony Rendon out of the final year of his deal before he retires—and with perhaps a reluctance to sign a Bregman or Murakami and risk making another nine-figure mistake at the hot corner.
Boston Red Sox Sign Pete Alonso
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Heading into the offseason, the Red Sox already looked like one of the likeliest landing spots for the Polar Bear.
The only teams who got less fWAR out of their first basemen were the Rockies, Giants and Nationals. Two of those three teams are nowhere close to contending and don't seem likely to invest nine figures in a slugger, and the Giants now have an envious tandem of Rafael Devers and top prospect Bryce Eldridge at first base.
Once the Red Sox proceeded to non-tender Nathaniel Lowe, though, they really became the leader in the clubhouse to sign Pete Alonso.
Now that they've also traded for both Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo and have arguably too many starting pitchers at their disposal, it's time to turn all of their attention to bolstering both corner infield spots.
Signing Alonso and re-signing Alex Bregman is probably asking too much. But at least at third base, there are other quality options out there. They could give Alonso something like four years, $110M and then target either Kazuma Okamoto or Eugenio Suárez for a good deal less than what Bregman would cost.
And if they do want Alonso, they'd better move quickly. Because if he signs elsewhere, the next-best option among free agents is either Luis Arraez or Ryan O'Hearn, which (all due respect to those guys) is a colossal drop.
Rays Trade Brandon Lowe
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While it wasn't ever assumed that the Rays were going to change their spending habits after the change in ownership, it at least felt like a possibility.
But in addition to declining their club option on Pete Fairbanks and non-tendering Christopher Morel, get a load of this chain of events: claimed Jake Fraley (whose estimated arbitration salary was $3.6M) off waivers from Atlanta on Nov. 6, non-tendered Fraley on Nov. 21 and re-signed Fraley for $3M on Nov. 25.
If they're willing to go to those lengths to save an estimated $600k, it seems like a safe assumption that they're more than willing to trade away Brandon Lowe and his $11.5M salary, as has been their M.O. for decades.
Lowe hit 31 home runs in 2025 and 73 total over the past three seasons. Quite a few teams could benefit from that type of pop at second base, and the cost is hardly prohibitive. Even the Pirates or A's could handle $11.5M for one year at what is a considerable position of need for both.
The Padres might be the team to beat, though.
In their current financial position, they're presumably not looking to make any long-term signings this offseason. However, they are still trying to contend in 2026 and almost certainly need to add at least one bat, preferably at first or second base.
After not getting what they hoped for out of Luis Arraez's contact approach at the plate, going to the opposite extreme for one of the best slugging second basemen could be desirable.
Kyle Tucker Signs...But Not With the Blue Jays
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The times, they are a'changing in Toronto.
The Blue Jays re-signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for $500M in early April, made that major, seemingly-out-of-nowhere splash with the Dylan Cease signing just before Thanksgiving and reportedly had Kyle Tucker in for a visit at their spring training facility a few days ago.
Over the past few years, though, any time there has been a sudden uptick in rumors that Toronto was about to land one of the biggest fish in free agency—Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, etc.—it turned out to be little more than an alert that said player was about to sign...somewhere else.
Will they actually sign Tucker, or will that trend continue?
Toronto is certainly on the short list of viable landing spots for what has long been projected to be around a $400M contract for Tucker.
However, it's hard to bet against the Dodgers.
Not only is "budget" an abstract concept for the twice-reigning champs, but an outfield upgrade is certainly on their offseason to-do list. And unless they're super high on Harrison Bader or Adolis García, the only free agents who would actually be an upgrade are Tucker and Cody Bellinger—the latter of whom might be opposed to a reunion with the team that non-tendered him three winters ago.
Tucker signs with the Dodgers, who steer headlong into their villainous role with yet another massive contract that is largely deferred.
New York Mets Sign One Starter; Trade Away Another
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The New York Mets have made several moves already this offseason in their quest to improve run prevention, trading for Marcus Semien to upgrade the infield defense and signing Devin Williams to shore up the bullpen.
However, they have yet to do the one thing that we all assumed would be No. 1 on their to-do list: Bolster the starting rotation with an ace.
There's still time, of course. Dylan Cease, Brandon Woodruff and Shota Imanaga are off the board, but Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Michael King, Zac Gallen and Tatsuya Imai are still available—the latter on a ticking timeline, needing to sign by Jan. 2.
Of that quintet, either Suárez or King will sign with the Mets this week.
Shortly thereafter (or maybe even before), they will trade away Kodai Senga, who has two years and $30M remaining on his deal and who ended this past season in Triple-A after a disastrous run through the first six weeks of the second half.
While the Mets might be done with Senga, there should be quite a bit of interest in a very reasonably priced pitcher with a career ERA of 3.00 and career K/9 of 10.1. We'll get semi-specific here and say he lands with one of the non-Seattle teams in the AL West, all of whom have rotation needs and probably not enough room in their budget to sign a Valdez or a Suárez.
A Suárez Soiree in Orlando
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There has never been a bigger offseason for MLB players named Suárez/Suarez.
Ranger Suárez is either the second-best or third-best pitcher left on the market. He should clear $100M with room to spare on his forthcoming contract, with the Astros, Cubs and Orioles reportedly the top suitors for his services. Got to assume the Mets and Giants are in that mix, too.
Robert Suarez is the second-most noteworthy reliever available. Though he'll turn 35 in March and isn't a serious candidate for a five-year deal, he should be able to command around $20M per year on a two-year or three-year contract. The Dodgers have emerged as a strong candidate to sign the former Padres closer.
Eugenio Suárez is one of the 10 most coveted position players yet to be signed. He hit 49 home runs last season, as he also did in 2019. He, too, will turn 35 in 2026, but probably has at least another year or two left in the tank as a middle-of-the-lineup bopper.
All three arguably rank top 15 on the current Free Agents big board. And while Albert Suárez is nowhere close to that level, someone is surely going to take a flyer on the former Orioles pitcher.
Eugenio's market probably won't come together until after some of Alex Bregman, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto sign their deals, but you never know. And with rumors recently starting to percolate around both Ranger and Robert, we'll say that at least two, maybe three of these Suárezes/Suarezes sign during the Winter Meetings.
The Biggest Star Traded This Week Comes from an AL Central Team
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We're being intentionally vague about which particular star/team it ends up being, but let's just say we've got options here.
We've already predicted that Kodai Senga, Nolan Arenado*/Willson Contreras and Brandon Lowe will be traded, so it has to be a bigger name than that for this one to ring true.
Obviously atop the list of options is Detroit's Tarik Skubal, though it still feels pretty unlikely he'll be on the move, at least at this early stage in the offseason. Maybe some team gets desperate and substantially increases its offer to the Tigers once all the ace-caliber free agent arms are signed, but it'd be stunning if Skubal gets dealt this week.
Minnesota's Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton and/or Pablo López would qualify as a top star on the move, though, and reasonably could be traded any minute now. Same goes for Cleveland's Steven Kwan. And there's at least a case to be made that Kansas City's Kris Bubic or Chicago's Luis Robert Jr. would count as a bigger star than Senga or Lowe.
One of those five teams will be on the giving end of a jaw-dropping swap.
*Arenado is going to be a Hall of Famer and is surely a bigger name than anyone mentioned here, aside from Skubal. However, he hasn't been anything special over the past couple years and is no longer the commodity that he was the last time he was traded.
