Predicting When Every Undefeated 2025-26 Men's College Basketball Team Will Lose
After four consecutive seasons in which the last remaining undefeated team in men's college basketball suffered its first loss within the first 11 days of January, could this be a year when someone flirts with going 40-0?
We certainly have more viable candidates than usual. By this time last year, there were seven undefeateds still standing, but only two of them were ranked in the KenPom top 40. This time, though, there are a handful of serious championship contenders who still have a donut in the loss column.
So, who is most likely to win this annual survivor contest?
For each of the remaining undefeateds, we used KenPom win probabilities to calculate the chance that they will be undefeated on each of Jan. 1, Feb. 1 and at the end of the regular season (not including conference tournaments).
Teams are presented in chronological order of their first projected loss.
*Please note that this methodology means teams are not listed in order of their overall likelihood to go undefeated, nor in order of national championship odds. Notably, Vanderbilt isn't projected to lose any particular game the rest of the way, but has the fourth-best odds of running the table.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
1 of 8
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 9.4 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: less than 0.1 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: effectively zero
Projected Record: 21-10 (10-10 in Big Ten)
First Projected Loss: Dec. 13 at Illinois
It has been a fun story that Nebraska has the longest active winning streak in the nation, thanks to that 4-0 run through the inaugural Crown tournament this past spring.
It wasn't until recently that the wins started to actually look impressive, though, pummeling Creighton by 21 points on Sunday.
Fred Hoiberg and Co. might have a little something here, using a "Villanova in its prime" sort of approach on offense, launching a ton of threes, converting at a phenomenal clip on twos and rarely turning the ball over.
That isn't to say we think "Nebrasketball" could win a national championship. But the 'Huskers probably should make the dance and maybe could win a tournament game for what would be the first time in program history.
That 13-game winning streak is most likely coming to an end this Saturday, though, when Nebraska has to go on the road to face a strong Illinois team that has size for days.
The Cornhuskers did win last year's "Nebrnois" game in overtime in Lincoln, but only because the Illini missed 32 three-point attempts and didn't have big man Tomislav Ivisic. In Champaign and presumably at full health, they should get the win.
And while Nebraska is slightly favored Wednesday night at home against Wisconsin, the Cornhuskers easily could lose that one first.
Miami (OH) RedHawks
2 of 8
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 7.0 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.1 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: effectively zero
Projected Record: 23-7 (12-6 in MAC)
First Projected Loss: Dec. 16 at Wright State
Miami (Ohio) is very much the "one of these things is not like the other" team on this list, both as the only representative from outside the power five and as the only one that has yet to face an opponent worth even half a darn..
Wednesday's game at UNC-Asheville will be easily the RedHawks' most noteworthy so far this season, and that's not even a top 200 team on KenPom. But the only other game they've played against a team ranked 275th or better was the season opener at home against No. 212 Old Dominion—which was playing without its primary perimeter weapon, no less.
So, we're not exactly thinking 40-0 national champion here.
Regardless of the level of competition, though, they're 8-0 for the first time since 1995-96, when head coach Herb Sendek had a freshman by the name of Wally Szczerbiak at his disposal.
They're also building upon a solid 25-9 run through last season, with a coach (Travis Steele) who arguably got run out of Xavier too quickly. It's plausible they'll be the team to beat in the MAC, but we'll find out in a hurry when they draw Bowling Green and Akron in back-to-back games.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
3 of 8
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 49.7 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: less than 0.01 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: effectively zero
Projected Record: 20-11 (8-10 in Big 12)
First Projected Loss: Jan. 3 at Texas Tech
Should the Cowboys prevail against Oklahoma in the hardwood version of Bedlam on Saturday, it's a near-certainty they'll make it to New Year's Day with a perfect 13-0 record, as the only other games left on their 2025 docket (vs. Kansas City, vs. Cal St. Fullerton, vs. Bethune-Cookman) should all be blowout victories.
Godspeed in January, though, as two games against Iowa State plus road games against Texas Tech and TCU will likely result in multiple losses.
While it's a waste of time to speculate on Oklahoma State running the table, there's a solid chance this is an NCAA tournament team, right?
That has only been the case once since 2017, and only in the year (2021) that they somehow convinced the best recruit in the country (Cade Cunningham) to spend a season in Stillwater (by hiring his brother as an assistant coach). But in Steve Lutz's second year at the helm, they've got something percolating, already boasting wins over Northwestern and Texas A&M.
When all of Anthony Roy, Jaylen Curry and Vyctorius Miller are healthy, this backcourt can be a lot of fun. They combined for 51 points in the win over Northwestern.
Arizona Wildcats
4 of 8
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 44.4 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 5.9 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 0.14 percent
Projected Record: 26-5 (13-5 in Big 12)
First Projected Loss: Jan. 26 at BYU
I've been writing this article a little over a week into December for quite a few years now, and there always seems to be one of these teams that:
A) might be good enough to win the national championship,
B) may well lose the next game on its schedule, but
C) could last at least a month into conference play before suffering its first loss if it happens to survive this next game.
For the second time in three years, that team is Arizona, which has already cleared a few hurdles to get to this point. The Wildcats beat Florida on opening night in Las Vegas, defeated UCLA in what might as well have been a road game in Inglewood, beat Connecticut in an actual road game and dominantly took care of business at home against Auburn this past weekend.
But the game this Saturday against Alabama will be a wild contrast in styles in a hostile environment.
While the Crimson Tide takes nearly half of its shots from beyond the arc, Arizona has become one of the least perimeter-oriented teams in the nation—opting for more consistency after the past two years of living and dying with Caleb Love's heat check threes.
With any luck for Arizona, that game will play out similarly to the 2014 Duke-Syracuse game, when the Blue Devils shot 15-for-36 from three-point range, yet fell in overtime to an undefeated Orange team that merely went 3-for-4 from distance.
And if the Wildcats survive that one, getting to 20-0 is a real possibility, as they don't have to deal with any of Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech or BYU until the road game against AJ Dybantsa and Co. in late January.
Duke Blue Devils
5 of 8
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 71.5 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 12.6 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 1.1 percent
Projected Record: 27-4 (15-3 in ACC)
First Projected Loss: Feb. 21 vs. Michigan (in Washington D.C.)
Some of the teams on this list haven't exactly been put through the wringer through the first five weeks, but Duke has already put together arguably the most impressive tournament resume in the country.
The Blue Devils won at Michigan State on Saturday, four days after the home win over Florida in the ACC-SEC Challenge. They also previously defeated Arkansas in Chicago, Kansas in New York City and Texas in Charlotte.
Through it all, Cameron Boozer has deservedly received copious amounts of love as a National Player of the Year candidate. But this Duke defense has been exquisite, holding those five major-conference foes to 64.6 points.
Maliq Brown has always been great on D, but Patrick Ngongba II has already blocked as many shots as he did in the entire 2024-25 campaign, Isaiah Evans has improved by leaps and bounds on that end of the floor, and freshman Dame Sarr makes life miserable for whichever wing/forward he happens to draw.
Combine that with a phenom who seems to roll out of bed with a double-double, and this team is going to be mighty difficult to beat.
The Blue Devils do have two games each against Louisville and North Carolina, as well as two more big nonconference battles with Texas Tech (in NYC) and Michigan (in D.C.). It's a near-certainty there will be a loss at some point. Most likely several of them.
Then again, with four freshmen in the primary eight-man rotation, an already very good Duke team should only get better as the season progresses and those non-Boozer newbies start getting more comfortable.
This is probably the best candidate to flirt with 40-0.
Iowa State Cyclones
6 of 8
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 87.7 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 23.3 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 2.0 percent
Projected Record: 28-3 (15-3 in Big 12)
First Projected Loss: March 2 at Arizona
Prior to playing at Purdue on Saturday, Iowa State had just a 0.2 percent chance of going undefeated, per KenPom win probabilities.
However, destroying the Boilermakers by a score of 81-58 changed everything.
Not only did the Cyclones win a road game in which they were given a 32 percent chance of victory, but they did it so emphatically that their KenPom rating skyrocketed from plus-30.29 to plus-34.59 and they now have a higher likelihood of winning each of their other games.
Most notable among them are the road games against BYU and Arizona late in the season. Prior to beating Purdue, Iowa State was respectively given a 42 and 43 percent chance of winning those games. Those instantly changed to 53 and 54 percent, respectively. (Though, the Arizona game subsequently dropped back below 50 to 48 percent after the Wildcats hammered Auburn later that night.)
At this point, there's a near-20 percent chance Iowa State will make it into early February with a 23-0 record.
However, that assumes road wins over both Baylor and Kansas in the first half of January, which simply cannot and should not be assumed. Dating back to 2001-02, Iowa State has gone a combined 4-37 in those particular road games.
Should the Cyclones make it through those challenges at Baylor (Jan. 7) and Kansas (Jan. 13), though, things will officially start to get interesting.
If nothing else, you've got to like the odds of this team getting a No. 1 seed for the first time in program history, and maybe making its first Final Four since 1944.
Vanderbilt Commodores
7 of 8
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 53.6 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 3.3 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 0.16 percent
Projected Record: 26-5 (13-5 in SEC)
First Projected Loss: N/A
Got to love probabilities, right?
Less than a 1-in-500 chance of running the table, but not supposed to lose any particular game?
Such is the math for a team given between a 60 and an 89 percent chance of victory in each of its first 15 SEC games.
(Which, with all due respect to Vanderbilt, speaks volumes to how far the SEC has fallen off since making history with 14 bids last year.)
Vanderbilt very likely will suffer several losses along the way, with the road games against Arkansas (Jan. 20) and Auburn (Feb. 10) standing out as the biggest tests.
However, the Commodores—who legitimately might be the best team in this conference—don't play at Florida or Alabama this year, nor do they have to travel to Kentucky or Tennessee until the final eight days of the regular season.
Regardless of how far they make it without suffering a loss, this is a fun, potent squad.
Three-time transfer and sixth-year senior Duke Miles has been quite the veteran leader. Tyler Tanner has been a phenomenal breakout story as a sophomore, going for 26 points and six assists last week against SMU. They're wildly efficient on offense and they're aggressive (almost to a fault) on defense.
But here's the kicker: They dropped 96 points on Saint Mary's in the Battle 4 Atlantis championship.
That simply does not happen. The Gaels hadn't allowed more than 82 points in a game since Feb. 2021. And with the exception of a 107-99 four-overtime affair against Pacific in January 2020, they had not given up 96 in any game since March 2001.
The 'Dores just might be better than ever before.
Michigan Wolverines
8 of 8
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 91.1 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 28.0 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 2.6 percent
Projected Record: 28-3 (17-3 in Big Ten)
First Projected Loss: N/A
While Michigan's odds of making it to Feb. 1 are impressive enough, it should be noted that the Jan. 30 game at Michigan State is the next time the Wolverines are given less than an 86 percent chance of victory.
There's about a 45 percent chance they'll be 20-0 heading into what would be an all-timer in the history of that in-state rivalry.
But after the show they put on in the Players Era Festival, why shouldn't that be the case?
Yaxel Lendeborg's first couple of games of the season were painfully underwhelming, but he has quickly become the do-it-all star for Michigan that he had been over the previous two seasons at UAB.
And with Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson patrolling the paint, trying to score within 10 feet of the rim against this team is a Herculean task.
The big question here is whether Elliot Cadeau is good/consistent enough for this team to make a legitimate run at a perfect season.
The North Carolina transfer had 14 assists in his Michigan debut against Oakland, and racked up 13 more dimes in that 40-point rout of Gonzaga. In the four games leading up to that one, though, Cadeau had logged 78 minutes with four assists and nine turnovers, his performance in the close call at TCU borderline catastrophic.
Instead of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, let's call this Dr. Elliot and Mr. Cadeau. And if the doctor can keep the mister at bay, the Wolverines could run the table.
It's pretty likely, though, that they'll take at least one loss in the second half of February, playing at Purdue, at Illinois and at a neutral site against Duke, all in the span of 11 days.
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