College Football Playoff 2025 Full Bowl Predictions amid Latest Bracket Scenarios

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff (CFP) is nearly here. The opening four-game round, which will be played on the campuses of the highest-seeded team in each matchup, is scheduled for December 19 and 20.

However, the field is not yet set. While a handful of teams are virtual locks to make the tournament bracket, a few spots—along with quite a bit of seeding—will be determined over conference championship week.

The CFP committee will ultimately choose how the final bracket looks, but let's dive into this week's scenarios and make predictions for all of the CFB bowl games.

Updated CFP Rankings, Top 25

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1. Ohio State

2. Indiana

3. Georgia

4. Texas Tech

5. Oregon

6. Mississippi

7. Texas A&M

8. Oklahoma

9. Alabama

10. Notre Dame

11. BYU

12. Miami

13. Texas

14. Vanderbilt

15. Utah

16. USC

17. Virginia

18. Arizona

19. Michigan

20. Tulane

21. Houston

22. Georgia Tech

23. Iowa

24. North Texas

25. James Madison

Conference Championship Schedule

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Friday, December 5

Sun Bowl Championship

Troy vs. 25. James Madison at 7 p.m. ET

Conference USA Championship

Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State at 7 p.m. ET

American Conference Championship

24. North Texas vs. 20. Tulane at 8 p.m. ET

Mountain West Championship

UNLV vs. Boise State at 8 p.m. ET

Saturday, December 6

Big 12 Championship

11. BYU vs. 4. Texas Tech at 12 p.m. ET

Mac Championship

Miami U. vs. Western Michigan at 12 p.m. ET

SEC Championship

3. Georgia vs. 9. Alabama at 4 p.m. ET

Big Ten Championship

1. Ohio State vs. 2. Indiana at 8 p.m. ET

ACC Championship

Duke vs. 17. Virginia at 8 p.m. ET

Bracket Scenarios

AP Photo

Alabama QBs Ty Simpson and Austin Mack

A lot can happen over the next two days, though it's highly unlikely that we'll see a surprise entrant into the final 12-team bracket. The five highest-ranked conference champions will earn automatic bids, which only leaves seven at-large spots.

Of those seven spots, four are likely taken by Oregon, Mississippi, Texas A&M and Oklahoma, who are highly ranked and out of action this week. We probably won't see participants from the Big Ten or SEC title games fall all the way out of the bracket—with Alabama being a possible exception.

If the Crimson Tide gets routed by Georgia on Saturday, it could conceivably fall out, opening the door for Miami. Alabama or Notre Dame could potentially fall out of the bracket if BYU happens to upset Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game.

If, however, Alabama keeps things close with Georgia, and Texas Tech wins on Saturday, BYU and Miami will probably both be out.

One of the final two spots will likely go to the winner of the ACC title game, though that will be the committee's call. Duke isn't ranked, while James Madison, North Texas and Tulane all are. If Duke upsets Virginia, we might see both the American and Sun Belt champions in the CFP.

Assuming Virginia does win, though, the last bit of drama will involve how the committee ranks the Sun Belt and American champions. Tulane is the highest-ranked of the three Group of Five (G5) contenders, but positions could flip depending on the results.

We may see some shuffling in the seeding as well, though the top eight teams in the current rankings are likely locked into playoff spots.

Full CFP Bowl Projections

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Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza

The following bracket projections are based on the current CFP rankings and the potential outcomes of conference championship week:

Round 1

12. Tulane at 5. Oregon

11. Virginia at 6. Mississippi

10. Alabama at 7. Texas A&M

9. Notre Dame at 8. Oklahoma

Quarterfinals

Cotton Bowl

7. Texas A&M vs. 2. Indiana

Orange Bowl

5. Oregon vs. 4. Texas Tech

Rose Bowl

9. Notre Dame vs. 1. Ohio State

Sugar Bowl

6. Mississippi vs. 3. Georgia

Semifinals

Fiesta Bowl

5. Oregon vs. 1. Ohio State

Peach Bowl

3. Georgia vs. 2. Indiana

CFP Championship Game

2. Indiana vs. 1 Ohio State

Because the CFP committee introduced straight seeding this year, we may see Ohio State and Indiana retain the top two seeds after the Big Ten title game. This is because the four first-round byes are no longer guaranteed to go to the four highest-ranked conference champions.

The prediction here is that Ohio State wins by a close enough margin that a one-loss Indiana team retains the No. 2 seed. We'll also predict a relatively close SEC Championship Game that leaves Georgia at No. 3 and only drops Alabama one spot, below Notre Dame.

We'll predict the ACC and Big 12 title games to go as expected, leaving no real surprises among the top 11 playoff spots.

For the G5 bid, we'll pencil in Tulane. While a blowout win by James Madison might give the Dukes a shot at overtaking the American champion in the final CFP rankings. However, it feels like whichever team wins the AAC is destined for a postseason berth.