MLB Free-Agency Tier Rankings from Least to Most Aggressive Spenders This Winter
There has been some early stirring on the free-agent market, but the fact that it's still littered with big names means we don't really know who the big spenders are yet. Educated guesses are the best anyone can do.
So, let's do that by sorting all 30 teams into tiers as aggressive spenders for the winter. The list generally counts down from the least aggressive to the most aggressive, but the specific tiers look like this:
- Don't Count on Anything
- No Money for Free Agents
- Cash-Strapped Contenders
- Sneaky Small-Market Clubs
- Might Have Something Up Their Sleeve
- Deep Pockets, But Hard to Read
- They'll Spend, but with Limits
- This Is Where the Action Is
This is a forward-looking exercise that is essentially meant to predict teams that will spend, not merely observe teams that already have spent. The latter is a short list, however, and some teams that have spent still have room to spend more.
Note: All 2025 payrolls and 2026 payroll projections are according to FanGraphs.
Don't Count on Anything
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In this tier: teams that won't cause a stir in free agency.
30. Colorado Rockies
Final 2025 Payroll: $124 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $97 million
Every now and then, the Rockies come out of the woodwork and hand out a major free-agent deal. They've done a couple just within the last decade, most notably a seven-year, $182 million deal with Kris Bryant.
As with most gambles they have made, though, that deal has been a huge bust. And if their hiring of Paul DePodesta tells us anything, it's that the organization knows it needs to try something different after three straight 100-loss seasons.
29. Washington Nationals
Final 2025 Payroll: $118 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $93 million
The Nationals used to be a big spender, at one point ranking fourth in MLB with their Opening Day payroll for the 2019 season. And from that experience, they should know that spending and winning are not strange bedfellows.
That was a long time ago, though. They are now something of a rudderless ship under the Lerner family. It's Paul Toboni's job to get things going in some kind of direction, and it doesn't sound like he's interested in jacking up payroll after five straight seasons of 90-plus losses.
28. Minnesota Twins
Final 2025 Payroll: $136 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $96 million
The Twins are only a couple months removed from detonating their roster at the trade deadline. If they want to win back an understandably jaded fanbase, arguably the best thing they can do now is reinvest their savings into the roster.
Fat chance, though. The Twins ostensibly have the flexibility to spend in free agency, yet most of the buzz this winter has concerned them possibly subtracting even more parts, such as Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan and Pablo López.
27. St. Louis Cardinals
Final 2025 Payroll: $144 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $108 million
The Cardinals were a reliable mid-tier spender for a long time, and that occasionally involved dipping into free agency for a high-priced star such as Dexter Fowler, Willson Contreras or Sonny Gray.
Yet with the Chaim Bloom era having begun, Gray is already gone and Contreras and Nolan Arenado are candidates to go next. There will come a day when all that payroll space is filled back up, but it won't be this winter. There's too much rebuilding to do.
26. Athletics
Final 2025 Payroll: $79 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $75 million
The A's pulled a fast one on everyone last year, signing Luis Severino to a club-record $67 million deal and also nailing down extensions for Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler. Might they pull yet another sneak attack this winter?
Well, there has been talk of a payroll increase, but the A's could technically pull that off with just a $5 million free-agent deal. With their temporary home not drawing fans and their future home experiencing a financial downturn, you have to think caution is the name of the game.
25. Chicago White Sox
Final 2025 Payroll: $85 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $69 million
White Sox GM Chris Getz hinted early on that he wouldn't be making any free-agent signings for more than one year. It counts as a nice surprise, then, that he's the one who inked left-hander Anthony Kay to a two-year, $12 million deal on Wednesday.
With daylight still between the Pale Hose's 2025 and 2026 payrolls, perhaps there will be more where that came from. But with the club still in the early stages of a rebuild, it's not exactly easy to count on it, either.
No Money for Free Agents
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In this tier: Contenders that are already in over their heads financially.
24. Milwaukee Brewers
Final 2025 Payroll: $123 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $136 million
This is pretty much an instant "Yeah, nah, don't count on it." The Brewers are consistently among MLB's lowest free-agent spenders even in the best of times, and right now doesn't qualify. They are "fretting" over their payroll, according to Will Sammon, Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic.
The lesson here would seem to be: Maybe don't make an injury-prone pitcher a $22.025 million offer, much less after he's already collected a $10 million buyout.
23. Kansas City Royals
Final 2025 Payroll: $138 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $139 million
The Royals were a surprise spender in recent offseasons, notably by way of multi-year pacts with Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Carlos Estévez. More recently, they went back to the well to extend Lugo and Salvador Perez.
However, you can see the bill they've racked up for 2026 in the process. That's about as far as the franchise's comfort zone has stretched in the past, so it makes sense that possible subtractions from the roster are getting buzz right now.
22. Tampa Bay Rays
Final 2025 Payroll: $79 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $84 million
The Rays have already done two notable free-agent deals, one with Jake Fraley and another with fellow outfielder Cedric Mullins. Could this indicate a payroll bump in anticipation of their return to Tropicana Field?
It does seem possible. The Rays are also interested in Zach Eflin and Adrian Houser, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. And if they need to cut money to squeeze them in, trading Brandon Lowe or Yandy Díaz wouldn't be too hard.
Cash-Strapped Contenders
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In this tier: Contenders that would have to push their comfort zones.
21. Houston Astros
Final 2025 Payroll: $224 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $225 million
The Astros have already done smaller deals with right-handers Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss, totaling just $3.95 million. Such contracts ordinarily barely move the needle, but in this case, they have already tipped Houston's payroll beyond its 2025 total.
The catch, though, is that the Astros are still close to $24 million in average annual value short of the luxury-tax threshold for 2026. Owner Jim Crane wants to stay below it, but that doesn't necessarily nix further spending.
20. Arizona Diamondbacks
Final 2025 Payroll: $188 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $145 million
That's a pretty big payroll gap, and it wouldn't be unlike the Diamondbacks to spring for one of the top players on the market. It's a thing they occasionally do, most notably when they feel like they need pitching. And right now, they do.
Managing partner Ken Kendrick wants a lower payroll, however, and their reported willingness to move Ketel Marte signals some kind of restraint after back-to-back disappointments since the 2023 World Series. Hold expectations in check accordingly.
19. Texas Rangers
Final 2025 Payroll: $224 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $169 million
The Rangers have been transparent with their plans to carry a lower payroll in 2026, and they recently took a step toward lowering their commitments. At least in the short term, they saved money on the Marcus Semien-for-Brandon Nimmo swap.
Yet with the purported target somewhere in the $200 million range, the Rangers actually do have room to spend in free agency if they so desire. And they should, as both their rotation and their bullpen are badly in need of depth.
18. San Diego Padres
Final 2025 Payroll: $211 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $201 million
This makes it look as if the Padres can only add $10 million to their 2026 payroll, and that figure may be accurate in more ways than one. They're also roughly $10 million in average value away from triggering the luxury tax threshold for next year.
The organization is clearly under financial strain, so it's hard to imagine caution being thrown to the wind. It'll be another story if they can move some bad contracts—Jake Cronenworth, anyone?—but for now, there doesn't seem to be much to see here.
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Sneaky Small-Market Clubs
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In this tier: Small-market teams that could be willing to take a risk.
17. Pittsburgh Pirates
Final 2025 Payroll: $87 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $66 million
The Pirates have never spent more than $39 million on a single free agent, and indeed rank last among all teams in open-market spending since 1991. And yet, they've been teased for as much as $40 million in new salaries for 2026.
Maybe this is a case of owner Bob Nutting throwing an angry fanbase a bone. Or, maybe he's serious about maximizing a contention window that is currently being propped open by Paul Skenes. According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the Bucs were in on Josh Naylor and have also showed interest in Kyle Schwarber.
16. Miami Marlins
Final 2025 Payroll: $70 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $59 million
There's cheap, and then there's what the Marlins were in 2025. They spent less on their whole payroll than the cash that the Mets gave just to Juan Soto.
Like the Pirates, though, the Marlins may be looking to spend more than usual this winter. It's another "I'll believe it when I see it" proposition, but this should be the goal after a competitive 79-83 season. And if they can get just one or two bats, a step up to the playoffs may be possible for 2026.
15. Cincinnati Reds
Final 2025 Payroll: $119 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $107 million
Most front-office heads are coy about payroll targets, but not Nick Krall. The Reds' president of baseball operations came right out in November and said: "Our 2026 payroll will be around the same as our payroll from 2025."
It sounds uninspired, but it actually means the Reds have room to spend even after re-signing Emilio Pagán for two years, $20 million on Wednesday. They really only need one big bat, so it's interesting to hear they're in on Kyle Schwarber, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.
14. Cleveland Guardians
Final 2025 Payroll: $102 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $75 million
The Guardians and free-agent spending historically don't go together. Going back all the way to 1991, they're in the bottom five of all teams in total spending in the open market.
Yet, they seem primed to surprise everyone this winter. The flexibility is clearly there, and it would be malpractice to not use it after a surprise run to the AL Central title. No promises or anything, but they're a team to keep an eye on.
Might Have Something Up Their Sleeve
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In this tier: Mid-market teams positioned to spend.
13. Seattle Mariners
Final 2025 Payroll: $166 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $151 million
It was the Mariners who struck first this winter, signing Josh Naylor to a $92.5 million pact that shattered Jerry Dipoto's high mark for a free-agent hitter during his tenure in Seattle. It had been a mere $24 million pact for Mitch Garver.
Naylor's deal ate up a good chunk of the $30 million-35 million budget with which Seattle began the winter. But there's still room in there for at least one more notable signing, though it'll be a surprise if it's any more notable than Jorge Polanco.
12. Los Angeles Angels
Final 2025 Payroll: $206 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $168 million
It's doubtful the Angels are any free agent's first choice. Their 11-year playoff drought is the longest in MLB, and their reputation sunk to a new low when Yusei Kikuchi's complaint about air conditioning forced the team to post a job opening for an HVAC technician.
And yet, the Angels are consistently near or within MLB's top 10 payrolls, and they'll have to spend this winter to make that happen again in 2026. As it's their only feasible option to contend, you have to think they'll aim to do exactly that.
11. Baltimore Orioles
Final 2025 Payroll: $160 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $118 million
The Orioles have already scored one of the biggest deals of the winter, signing Ryan Helsley to a two-year deal that will pay out $28 million. Yet they're not done, and reporting from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic suggests even Kyle Tucker could be in play.
It makes sense, considering just how much payroll space the O's have to work with. And after back-to-back years of diminishing returns following a 101-win 2023 season, it feels like now or never to boost their contention window.
Deep Pockets, But Hard to Read
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In this tier: Traditional big-spenders whose intentions aren't totally clear.
10. Detroit Tigers
Final 2025 Payroll: $155 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $142 million
At their peak in 2017, the Tigers pushed their Opening Day payroll as close to $200 million as it could possibly go. But that one came together under Mike Ilitch, and his son, Christopher, has been much more cautious about spending.
After back-to-back playoff berths, now should be the time to get bolder. But the Tigers haven't been acting like it, and it doesn't help that they lost $22.025 million worth of flexibility when Gleyber Torres accepted his qualifying offer. It may be telling that Detroit has mostly been connected to mid-tier pitchers since then.
9. San Francisco Giants
Final 2025 Payroll: $177 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $169 million
After carrying top-10 payrolls throughout the 2010s, the Giants have been laying much lower in recent years.
Yet they seem to have gained an appetite for bigger deals. In just a few months, they signed nine-figure deals with Matt Chapman and Willy Adames and absorbed another through the trade for Rafael Devers.
Even with those deals still on the books, the Giants are more than $50 million in average value away from hitting the 2026 luxury tax. It could be a window to spend, though the best indication of their plans is from ESPN's Buster Olney, who reported they're only interested in "modestly priced" pitching upgrades.
8. Chicago Cubs
Final 2025 Payroll: $206 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $181 million
The Cubs should be one of the big spenders of the winter. They're close to $50 million in average annual value below next year's luxury tax threshold. And according to Forbes, only the Dodgers and Yankees pull in more revenue.
However, Cubs fans might have to be content with merely hoping for a splash or two. The team has largely avoided carrying a top-10 payroll throughout the 2020s, and there just hasn't been much buzz about them chasing after big fish. And if they do, you have to think the size would be less Kyle Tucker and more Alex Bregman.
7. Atlanta Braves
Final 2025 Payroll: $214 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $221 million
The Braves have already pushed their payroll north via $18.25 million worth of deals with Raisel Iglesias and Joel Payamps, plus a trade that brought Mauricio Dubón over from Houston. With relatively few needs left to fill, they could be done.
Don't be so sure, though. The Braves have hinted at carrying a top-five payroll in 2026, and their luxury tax payroll is currently over $30 million in average value away from triggering the first threshold. That's flexibility they can use, perhaps on a shortstop.
They'll Spend, but with Limits
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In this tier: Big-market clubs that have money, but also limits.
6. Boston Red Sox
Final 2025 Payroll: $207 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $177 million
Actually, don't pay any attention to that $177 million payroll figure up there. What really matters is that Boston's luxury-tax payroll for 2026 is projected at $223.3 million, or barely more than $20 million in average value short of the first threshold.
Per Sean McAdam of MassLive, the Red Sox are hesitant to push their spending in tax territory. Yet he also suggests it's possible, and there's been enough buzz on guys like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber to suggest the Red Sox are leaning toward throwing caution to the wind.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
Final 2025 Payroll: $291 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $240 million
As with the Red Sox, the number that really matters here is the Phillies' projected luxury-tax payroll for 2026. It's at $259.5 million, putting them well over the first threshold and only $5.5 million in average value away from the second threshold.
This said, the Phillies don't seem to have a dramatic payroll decrease in mind. Their tax payroll for 2025 was over $300 million, so there may be room for a couple of big signings or one really big signing. Either way, there isn't a big name on the market who feels out of their reach.
4. New York Yankees
Final 2025 Payroll: $296 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $260 million
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner really doesn't like spending money, to a point where he recently said it would be "ideal" if the club lowered payroll for 2026. Because when you're sitting on MLB's most valuable franchise, obviously the thing to do is pinch pennies.
Passive-aggressive humor aside, the Yankees ran a $318 million luxury-tax payroll this year. As they're currently projected at $283.3 million in that column for 2026, they have ample room to add on multiple fronts. Re-upping with Cody Bellinger is possible, and Tatsuya Imai seems right up their alley on the pitching side.
This Is Where the Action Is
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In this tier: Big-market clubs with money, period.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
Final 2025 Payroll: $258 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $272 million
Fresh off their first World Series appearance in three decades, the Blue Jays have already thrown their weight around in the form of $240 million worth of deals for Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce. Surely, they must be done, right?
That might be, and don't call me... anyway, the point is that the Blue Jays still have a Bo Bichette-shaped hole in their lineup, which doesn't necessarily need to be filled by him. Kyle Tucker fits them just as well. And after falling two outs shy of winning it all, a new closer wouldn't hurt either.
This is a lot to ask, but ESPN's Buster Olney hit on two key points: Toronto is "loaded with money," and this year did wonders for the organization's reputation among players.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Final 2025 Payroll: $396 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $337 million
It's hard to specify exactly how much the Dodgers spent on payroll this year, but the rough estimate is somewhere around $500 million. And after winning back-to-back World Series titles, it would be odd if they slowed down now.
They need to patch up a bullpen they basically had to hide as 2025 went along. And to this end, Edwin Díaz is right there waiting for another nine-figure deal.
Because the Dodgers could also stand to upgrade at second base and in the outfield, Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker are right there for them, too. They could even reunite with Cody Bellinger, who ESPN's Jeff Passan says is back on their radar.
1. New York Mets
Final 2025 Payroll: $340 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $279 million
Even the Mets didn't spend as much as the Dodgers this year, but they have to advantages on their NL rivals this winter. They're starting from a lower payroll floor, for one, and they also have a more pressing need to make improvements.
Signing Devin Williams to a three-year, $51 million deal checked a big box, yet SNY's Andy Martino reports they're still in on Edwin Díaz. And after it ranked 27th in innings, the Mets' rotation is crying out for a workhorse such as Framber Valdez.
The offense has uncertainty as well, specifically at Pete Alonso's vacated spot at first base. Yet if bringing back him is the safe play, following through on their reported interest (per Passan) in Kyle Schwarber is the bold play.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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