Buy or Sell Latest on Kyle Tucker, Mets and Offseason MLB Trade, Free Agency Rumors
It didn't take long after the GM meetings for the MLB offseason to kick into gear, and Josh Naylor's return to Seattle should be the first of many big moves.
As for what could happen next, it suffices to say there's a ton of buzz out there right now, but it isn't easy to make sense of it all.
We're going to try to do that, though, by playing "Buy or Sell?" with a handful of rumors that have been making the rounds. As always, the idea is to buy or sell the implied outcome, not whether various reporters actually heard what they purported to hear.
This is a strictly speculative exercise that mostly involves reading whatever tea leaves are available. And in some cases, all one can do is play a hunch.
Are the Orioles Really Going to Stick with Adley Rutschman?
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What's Going On?
According to Jake Rill of MLB.com, Baltimore Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias insisted Adley Rutschman is still the club's primary catcher ahead of Samuel Basallo, an elite prospect who signed an eight-year contract last August.
However, a report from Jim Bowden of The Athletic claims the Orioles are getting calls and texts about Rutschman from teams interested in trading for a catcher.
What Does This Mean?
Rutschman is a former No. 1 pick who was an All-Star as recently as 2024, so it's remarkable that we're even having a discussion about whether the Orioles should be standing by him in 2026.
That said, his place in Baltimore does look a lot more tenuous than it did a year ago. Both his offense and defense have degraded over the last two seasons, specifically since he took a foul tip to the hand in June 2024. Since then, he only has a 80 wRC-plus and 1.1 fWAR in 162 games.
Given that and just how bad Rutschman's swing was looking at the end of 2025, the Orioles will have to keep him on a short leash even if he does open 2026 as their primary catcher. Even if he's not taking away at-bats from Basallo—who can get reps at DH, given his bat-first profile—he could cause more harm than good if his offense doesn't improve.
Then again, trading Rutschman might not be a better play. His value is way down right now, to a point where the Orioles would have to sell low. Given his pedigree, there's more sense remaining patient and hoping he can bounce back.
Verdict: Buy that Rutschman is sticking around...for now.
Will the Royals Subtract from Their Pitching Surplus?
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What's Going On?
According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Kansas City Royals are getting interest in Kris Bubic from "multiple teams."
The 28-year-old lefty is fresh off breaking out as an All-Star in 2025, posting a 2.55 ERA over 116.1 innings after a rotator cuff strain ended his season in July. He is under club control through 2026.
What Does This Mean?
It's important to note the rumor here isn't that the Royals are shopping Bubic, but that teams are reaching out about him. And yet, Sammon's report noted Kansas City is "open to the possibility of dealing" the southpaw.
Whether it should be is debatable. Pitching has been the primary engine of the Royals' contention drives in the last two seasons, with only two teams allowing fewer runs overall. Ideally, you want to keep an engine like that intact and well-oiled.
Yet after finishing fifth from the bottom of MLB in scoring, the Royals plainly need more offense. And with their 2026 payroll already projected to surpass what they spent in 2025, buying bats off the free-agent market isn't necessarily feasible.
Though Bubic only has one year standing between him and free agency, Baseball Trade Values estimates his surplus value at $12.1 million. That's enough for either an established major leaguer or an MLB-ready prospect.
Verdict: Sell that Bubic will still be a Royal on Opening Day in 2026.
Can the Cardinals Find Takers for 3 Stars?
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What's Going On?
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Cardinals could trade multiple All-Stars this winter, including Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray and Brendan Donovan.
Both Gray and Arenado have full no-trade protection, while Donovan is under club control for two more seasons. Per Chandler Rome of The Athletic, Donovan already has one interested party in the Houston Astros.
What Does This Mean?
Also among St. Louis' inventory of trade chips are Willson Contreras and Lars Nootbaar, the former of whom is yet another player who has full no-trade protection as part of his $87.5 million contract.
However, it makes sense that Arenado, Gray and Donovan would be in the spotlight. Donovan is probably the most valuable trade asset the Cardinals have, whereas Arenado and Gray represent their best chances to dump salary.
Arenado is down to the last two years and $42 million of his contract, and $5 million of that is already being covered by the Colorado Rockies. He blocked a trade to the Houston Astros last winter, but has already hinted he won't be as picky this winter.
But since Arenado is 34 and coming off a career-worst 1.3 rWAR, moving him might still be tricky. And ditto for Gray, who is owed $35 million next year after back-to-back seasons in the 1-2 rWAR range.
Verdict: Buy that Donovan will be traded, sell that Arenado and Gray are also headed out the door.
Can We Take These Big Names off the Trade Block?
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What's Going On?
A major takeaway from another report from Nightengale concerns which oft-mentioned trade candidates aren't likely to get moved: Paul Skenes, Fernando Tatis Jr., Freddy Peralta, Sandy Alcantara, Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker and Hunter Greene.
It's worth noting that Nightengale himself fanned the Tatis flames, prompting one Padres source to tell Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune: "We're not trading Tatis."
What Does This Mean?
A couple of these easily pass the smell test, including Paredes and Walker. The Astros may have just missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016, but they still have an open contention window and could even be buyers in free agency.
Skenes isn't even arbitration-eligible yet, so he should have at least one more year with a Pirates squad that is reportedly in a spending mood. Tatis and Greene are with contending teams on club-friendly deals, and even Nightengale conceded a Tatis trade isn't likely to happen until a year from now—when the San Diego Padres might be under new ownership.
This leaves Peralta and Alcantara, the former of whom makes for an odd trade candidate. He does have a ton of value as a trade chip, but he's also a two-time All-Star ace who will earn just $8 million in 2026. Even for the Milwaukee Brewers, that's chump change.
Alcantara is set to make a lot more with a $17.3 million salary for 2026, but the Miami Marlins have payroll space to work with anyway. And like the Pirates, they could also be looking to spend this winter.
Verdict: Sell that any of these guys will get moved.
Has the Tide Already Turned Against a Tarik Skubal Trade?
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What's Going On?
There's been plenty of trade buzz surrounding Tarik Skubal, but Detroit Tigers GM Jeff Greenberg was emphatic at the GM meetings: "Tarik is a Detroit Tiger."
Per Sammon and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, this mirrors what the Tigers are telling other executives around MLB. Some of them, however, wonder if it's a case of "posturing or a negotiation tactic to raise the ante."
What Does This Mean?
All of this is playing out in the shadow of the gap in extension talks between Skubal and the Tigers, which Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported in October to be "close to $250 million."
That's a big difference to reconcile, and Skubal's looming free agency after 2026 means the clock is ticking. And there's at least one good reason for Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris to act now on a trade.
"The class of starter free agents is mediocre," a high-ranking NL official told Sammon and Mooney. "So that makes the acquisition cost here even higher. It's a huge move for him, but it's also something that he probably understands he needs to do right now."
And yet, do the Tigers really want to move their back-to-back Cy Young Award winner after he's led two straight trips to the playoffs? The risk would be of effectively punting on another playoff run in favor of a future that would come with less certainty.
Perhaps it's worth the risk in the abstract, given Skubal could fetch multiple top-100 prospects in a trade. But that is also the other problem, as only so many win-now teams have that much talent to barter with.
Verdict: Buy that the Tigers are more likely to keep Skubal for 2026.
Is Pete Alonso Still in a Better Spot Even After Josh Naylor's Deal?
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What's Going On?
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote on Sunday about how Pete Alonso was in a much better position in free agency than he was last winter, when a cold market steered him back to the New York Mets on a one-year deal with a player option.
Is he now in a worse spot after the Mariners broke the ice on elite first basemen by signing Josh Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million deal? Not according to Feinsand, who wrote Monday that the Naylor deal "shouldn't have a major impact" on Alonso's market.
What Does This Mean?
It's easy enough to believe Alonso's position is unchanged after the Naylor deal, if for no other reason than the Mariners were never likely to be a bidder for Alonso.
Per B/R's Tim Kelly, Alonso is projected for a five-year, $145 million contract. That's $30 million more than the Mariners have spent on any free agent during Jerry Dipoto's run of the front office, which was the ill-fated (for them, anyway) Robbie Ray contract.
In the meantime, there are at least two teams who could pay Alonso that kind of money. One is obviously the Mets, who have baseball's richest owner and tons of payroll space. The other, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, is the Boston Red Sox:
Both clubs have a dire need for right-handed power, and the 30-year-old is as good a source as any team can find right now. He has averaged 42 home runs per 162 games for his career, and is coming off his third year with at least a 140 OPS-plus.
Verdict: Buy that Alonso will get a better contract than Naylor.
Is Edwin Díaz Really Going to Leave the Mets?
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What's Going On?
Speaking of the Mets, Edwin Díaz himself put the likelihood of returning to the team as a free agent at "50-50," according to Feinsand.
For his part, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns was diplomatic about both Alonso and Díaz at the GM meetings, telling reporters: "They've been great representatives of the organization. We'd love to have them both back."
What Does This Mean?
After missing all of 2023 with a knee injury and struggling at times in 2024, Díaz was pretty much back to normal this year. He finished with a 1.63 ERA and 98 strikeouts over 66.1 innings.
As such, it's little surprise the three-time All-Star is seeking a repeat of the five-year, $100 million contract he signed in 2022, according to Nightengale. It's a lot of money for a reliever but, again, this is the Mets we're talking about.
And yet, we're also talking about Stearns. He wasn't the one who negotiated Díaz's original deal, and he has arguably bigger targets to hit this winter. Alonso's power is more of a need than Díaz's late-inning excellence, and upgrades are needed in center field and atop the starting rotation.
The Toronto Blue Jays have already met with Díaz's reps, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, and they're just one of several deep-pocketed teams (another being the Los Angeles Dodgers) that could have more drive to break the bank for the kind of stability that Díaz brings to the ninth inning.
Verdict: Sell that Díaz will return to the Mets.
Is Cody Bellinger Really That Much of a Priority for the Yankees?
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What's Going On?
For the second time in as many winters, the Yankees are faced with the prospect of losing one of their top hitters to free agency. And even if he isn't Juan Soto, the Yankees very much want to have Cody Bellinger back.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman characterized the team as "very interested" in a reunion with the 2019 NL MVP. Nightengale echoed that, though he also noted they want a starting pitcher, bullpen help and a backup catcher.
What Does This Mean?
The Yankees had better be prepared to do a nine-figure deal with Bellinger. Kelly has him down for five years, $135 million, though there has also been speculation his guarantee could approach $200 million.
Yet if any team should be aggressive in going after Bellinger, it's the Yankees. The reason why is right there in his home/road splits for 2025:
Bellinger is the anti-Trent Grisham at Yankee Stadium, and his positional flexibility is not to be underrated as another reason the Yankees should want him back. He can play all three outfield spots and first base, and they have needs in both arenas.
The Yankees can add about $40 million in average annual value before they have to worry about the "Cohen tax" for 2026. That's enough room for Bellinger and perhaps one other significant signing, such as Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai or old friend Michael King.
Verdict: Buy that Bellinger will return to the Yankees.
Has the Race for Kyle Tucker Already Shifted Gears?
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What's Going On?
Remember when Kyle Tucker and the Dodgers seemed like they were on a collision course? That may no longer be the case, as Nightengale wrote that the two-time defending champs "probably won't be the high bidders" for the four-time All-Star.
Instead, the team the Dodgers just beat in the World Series may have the inside track at Tucker. As Feinsand said on MLB Network during the GM meetings, he heard of the Blue Jays being connected to Tucker "more than anybody else."
What Does This Mean?
Though this won't necessarily be a two-team race, the Dodgers and Blue Jays must love the idea that two other huge spenders aren't keen on Tucker. This is according to Heyman, who doesn't see either New York team getting involved:
It's a bit surprising to see the Yankees downplayed as a fit for Tucker. But save for when they signed Aaron Judge for $360 million in 2022, their recent M.O. under Cashman has been to spread money around rather than go all-in on one guy. For what it's worth, Kelly projects Tucker for the exact same guarantee as Judge.
Though the Blue Jays have a spot for Tucker in right field, they also need to think about retaining Bo Bichette and adding star power to their rotation and bullpen. To this end, it would help their cause if the Dodgers have a hard limit on Tucker.
And this, ultimately, is hard to believe. Their lineup badly needs another impact bat, and the days of them being shy of big free-agent contracts are clearly over. And if the upcoming CBA talks take aim at their preference for deferred money, Tucker may represent their last chance for their special brand of financial trickery.
Verdict: Sell that the Dodgers won't be the high bidders on Tucker.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
